Toekomstbeeld schreef op 14 juli 2017 05:50:
Een echt must read verhaal! Betreft weliswaar Indiase staalmakers maar geldt vanwege de ingevoerde importheffingen natuurlijk net zo goed voor Arcelor Mittal.
Het vergelijk wordt getrokken met de cement sector en wat die heeft doorgemaakt. Meer een nationaal beschermde sector met als gevolg veel betere bezettingsgraden en resulterende in EV/EBITDA waarderingen die 3 keer zo liggen als voorheen.
Als dat ook de situatie gaat worden voor staal is de 40 tot 50 euro die Peter Markus steeds herhaalt zeker een mogelijkheid.
Re-rating on the cards for steel industry on earnings visibility
By Jwalit Vyas Updated: Jul 14, 2017, 08.21 AM IST
In Indian steel stocks have recovered sharply since the government first introduced restrictions on imports at the end of FY16, but a major rerating could be still on the cards for the industry. The government has extended the minimum import price and anti-dumping duties on major steel products till 2021, thus providing a floor price
and making steel more of a domestic commodity like cement. Top cement stocks traded at EV to EBIDTA multiples of 5 to 7 between FY08 and FY13, and now trade at an average of 18 times on strong demand at home and no risk of imports. A similar re-rating could take place in the steel sector in the coming years with improving demand and earnings visibility.The sector also is very under-owned compared with other sectors such as cement, non-ferrous metals, banks and consumer goods. Top steel players in the industry include Tata Steel, JSW Steel and Jindal Steel.
In the past five years, steel demand growth has been extremely low -below 3 per cent compared with 10 per cent compounded growth in the 10 years before that.
Industry experts believe that India's steel demand is on the cusp of a high growth period with expected pick-up in government spending, mandate for lo ..
India's steel capacity at the end of FY17 was 125 MT. Given that most steel makers are grappling with high debt, it is unlikely that any new capacities would be added any time soon.
Only JSW Steel and Tata Steel have strong balance sheets to fund capex, but any capex now, will take at least three years to commission. Jindal Steel has recently commissioned its new plant and will see its production grow from the current fiscal.
Given these, analysts expect capacity utilisation of steel companies to gradually increase to over 90 per cent by FY21 from 78 per cent in FY17. With fixed costs remaining same, the margins of steel producers will rise sharply, thus helping faster deleveraging and higher than anticipated earnings growth. economictimes.indiatimes.com/markets/...