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NSI 2018

244 Posts, Pagina: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 » | Laatste

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green70 29 maart 2018 10:47

REITs are usually compared using FFO and quality. Management is of course of paramount importance.
I 've seen that the new management pay attention to details, less staff, decreased debt rate and they had good choices when buying new assets.
I expect that they will sell the 17% retail they have 10% below book value. Even if they sell 30% below book value this will only affect one financial year.
HNK is a very important bet. In principle, it is a good bet taking into account that in the future there will be more startup companies. If the startup gets bigger then they can move to an office building such as the newly purchased.

In the past I had a look at the NL retail REITs and they definetely have good very good financials. The issue is that there is so much talk about the retail apocalypse that it is expected that they will exist better opportunities to enter in the future i.e. with the ECB tightening the 10y bonds will be in the area of 2%.

My view is that NSI is internationally competitive (valuation and current management). I am long NSI but I think we need to keep an eye at the owners, the habas group.

[verwijderd] 29 maart 2018 11:41

@ Green, FYI:
Habas group is no longer owning shares in NSI. All of their assets and shares were sold in 2015 already.

green70 29 maart 2018 13:01

@pappapat
Thanks. I am trying to find any reason that could justify the FFO and div rate and I simply can't.
I keep on searching and I noticed that they are going to reduce the number of number of the Supervisory Board members from five to four! they focus on a specific area, Dutch A/A- offices, and they don't like adventures.
From the AGM agenda:
" If the vacancy of Mr. Tates is left open and Mr. Van der Ploeg is
reappointed, the Supervisory Board will consist of four
members who together cover all relevant fields of
expertise and experience required by the profile of the
Supervisory Board. "

This is the optimal strategy, simple, boring, no cheating. Most REITs, if they have the cash flow they start investing in new sectors/areas so that they increase assets under management and therefore management salaries. The salaries get increased and at the end they have to refocus to "strategic assets" meaning that they will sell for nothing the proporties in the new sectors/areas.

junkyard 29 maart 2018 16:22

Future FFO will be lower, as NSI announced in the 2018 outlook. Further asset rotation will lower FFO, as higher yielding retail assets will be sold and NSI will (re)develop some offices, temporarily not generating cashflow. So it is uncertain if current FFO / dividend level can be mantained. I think 2018 can remain at current dividend level by increasing payout ratio to 90%, but 2019 dividend is uncertain, depending on the asset rotation (timing and yields disposals and acquisitions) and office vacancy rates.

green70 30 maart 2018 08:36

A dividend cut has en enormous impact on stock price and therefore it affects the management's incentives plan. I don't think that it will happen even if for a certain year the FFO cannot fully cover the dividend distributions.

In the future, office REITS are in great danger only if remote working becomes widely spread and even then it will affect mostly B locations.
Asset rotation under a prudent management is a plus, they will decrease vacancy rates and FFO will increase. They may even decide to keep the properties that they will transform (they mentioned this).

NSI can give us a 20% dividend in the next three years and we will end up with an A level, mostly office portfolio in a country that has excellent macro and an expected population increase. In contrast, if you check REITs in Italy/Greece you see the exact opposite, bad macro, future population decrease and smaller spread to 10y.

junkyard 12 april 2018 15:44

Hoofddorp, 12 April 2018

PRESS RELEASE

NSI concludes €480 million refinancing and reduces cost of debt

NSI N.V. has refinanced its unsecured syndicated loan facility with ABN Amro, Belfius, Deutsche Bank, ING and Rabobank. In the new agreement margins are lower and the facility’s maturities are set for a
new 5 year term.

NSI’s average debt maturity increases to 5.5 years1 up from 3.1 years at the end of December 2017. A reduction in the margin, reflecting an implied investment grade credit rating, results in a cost of debt of 1.9%, from 2.3% previously.

The Term Loan is reduced to €180 million and the Revolving Credit Facilities are merged and increasing to €300 million, to provide more flexibility in the current asset rotation program. Both the Term Loan and the RCF now expire in April 2023. The Revolving Credit Facility includes an option to increase the maturity twice by one year, to ultimately April 2025.
In line with NSI’s hedging policy new swap contracts will be agreed to match with the underlying funding.

This transaction contributes to NSI’s strategy to extend its debt maturities, whilst lowering the total cost of funding. With the first loans now maturing in April 2023, an LTV at the end of March of 37.2% and 84% of the interest costs fixed or hedged, NSI has a solid balance sheet to support its strategy and plannen development pipeline in the years to come.

NSI was advised by Axeco Corporate Finance and NautaDutilh. Rabobank acted as documentation agent.

[verwijderd] 12 april 2018 16:40

Da's dan weer een dubbeltje per aandeel meer winst. Nou niet te veel met die portefeuille gaan liggen rotzooien, dan komt het helemaal goed. Hoewel, met de heer Harm Meijer op de achtergrond, kan er misschien nog wel wat leuks gebeuren.

Pierre1 16 april 2018 12:50

Fraaie koersstijging naar de Q1 cijfers en het dividend van 1,12 per volgende week. Het zou mooi zijn als deze stijging stand houdt en niet alleen vanwege het dividendrendement.

donderdag 19 april 2018
19-04 Tussentijdse verklaring Q1 2018
vrijdag 20 april 2018
20-04 Algemene Aandeelhoudersvergadering
dinsdag 24 april 2018
24-04 notering ex-dividend (Voorbeurs) (EUR 1,12)

Senior 1936 18 april 2018 09:55

quote:
Pierre1 schreef op 16 april 2018 12:50:
Fraaie koersstijging naar de Q1 cijfers en het dividend van 1,12 per volgende week. Het zou mooi zijn als deze stijging stand houdt en niet alleen vanwege het dividendrendement.

donderdag 19 april 2018
19-04 Tussentijdse verklaring Q1 2018
vrijdag 20 april 2018
20-04 Algemene Aandeelhoudersvergadering
dinsdag 24 april 2018
24-04 notering ex-dividend (Voorbeurs) (EUR 1,12)

ik vrees dat de huidige koersstijging vooral in het licht van het komende ex-dividend moet worden gezien...

slei 19 april 2018 08:12

We gaan stabiel en goed, dividend is prima houdbaar

www.iex.nl/Nieuws/ANP-190418-034/Mind...

slei 19 april 2018 10:56

ING handhaaft haar koopadvies

www.iex.nl/Nieuws/ANP-190418-087/Lage...

[verwijderd] 19 april 2018 11:50

Ietwat paniekerige reactie na opening beurs. Vanochtend op tijd bijgekocht (koers €36) en nu kijken wat het aandeel op het koersadvies van ING (ruim €39) gaat doen.24 april a.s dividend van €1.12, goeie vooruitzichten dus.

junkyard 19 april 2018 11:54

Afgelopen weken is NSI zeer stevig aangetrokken, winst nemen is momenteel niet gek. NSI noteert strak op boekwaarde, gisteren zelfs 37+. Een beweging naar beneden lijkt mij een natuurlijke reactie, resultaten waren ok maar niet bijzonder.

Vanwege de stevig opgelopen koers heeft Kepler Cheuvreux het NSI advies gewijzigd van Buy naar Hold, waarbij het koersdoel is gelijk gebleven op 37.

green70 19 april 2018 12:28

I sold today for two reasons.
The first is that I didn't like the HNK results and comments.

"HNK Apeldoorn and HNK Dordrecht remain difficult locations. In
HNK Ede we see good demand for the new MO units that we
have created, but demand for larger floor plates remains slow. In
HNK The Hague and HNK Zuid Oost we continue to invest to
upgrade our offering, which is also improving our letting prospects."

I like the HNK concept and it is the future but I am not confident that NSI is doing a good job. If you look at Technopolis Oyj in the Baltics region, they have 90% occupancy. I suspect that the NSI HNK are not in the best locations.

The second reason is that the NSI price is approaching the ING recommendation. We may get better entry points after the ex-div date. I hope to get in again at circa 34 euros.

junkyard 19 april 2018 13:14

quote:
green70 schreef op 19 april 2018 12:28:
I sold today for two reasons.
The first is that I didn't like the HNK results and comments.

"HNK Apeldoorn and HNK Dordrecht remain difficult locations. In
HNK Ede we see good demand for the new MO units that we
have created, but demand for larger floor plates remains slow. In
HNK The Hague and HNK Zuid Oost we continue to invest to
upgrade our offering, which is also improving our letting prospects."

I like the HNK concept and it is the future but I am not confident that NSI is doing a good job. If you look at Technopolis Oyj in the Baltics region, they have 90% occupancy. I suspect that the NSI HNK are not in the best locations.

The second reason is that the NSI price is approaching the ING recommendation. We may get better entry points after the ex-div date. I hope to get in again at circa 34 euros.

Exactly my thoughts. Limited upside given current boosted share price (near NAV). Operational performance and occupancy remains a concern, don't see a reason why NSI should trade at a premium.

slei 27 april 2018 15:10

wat plukjes eruit - even tijd om wat bij te komen.
Bij 32/33 weer oppikken?

junkyard 10 mei 2018 12:18

www.beleggersbelangen.nl/2018/05/08/n...

slei 10 mei 2018 20:40

quote:
junkyard schreef op 10 mei 2018 12:18:
www.beleggersbelangen.nl/2018/05/08/n...

En wat is de strekking van wat BB meldt?

junkyard 10 mei 2018 21:54

Een goed artikel van BB, strekking is een "houden" advies, met gedegen onderbouwing (o.a. geen discount meer, geen dividend groei te verwachten door asset rotatie naar panden met lager aanvangsrendement, hoger kwaliteit in portefeuille, hoge leegstand blijft een aandachtspunt). De titel stelt:

Ondanks de aantrekkende Nederlandse kantorenmarkt en de strategische focus op goede locaties, zit NSI nog steeds met veel leegstand in de portefeuille. Een verdere kwaliteitsslag is noodzakelijk, maar gaat op korte termijn ten koste van de winst.

Een interessant aandachtspunt dat door BB wordt aangestipt is dat kantoren vanaf 2023 het energielabel C moeten hebben en Rabobank verwacht dat vanaf 2030 het energielabel A verplicht is. Dit zal forse investeringen vergen aangezien momenteel slechts 29% van de kantoren het A label heeft (en 19% het D-label of slechter).

Mogelijk dat het verplichte energielabel ook kansen kan bieden, doordat vanwege deze verplichting kantoren worden onttrokken aan het kantorenaanbod? Er zal toenemende vraag ontstaan naar nieuwbouw kantoren op goede lokaties, waarop NSI al anticipeert door nieuwbouw / herontwikkeling plannen voor te bereiden.

slei 11 mei 2018 11:34

quote:
junkyard schreef op 10 mei 2018 21:54:
Een goed artikel van BB, strekking is een "houden" advies ...

Dank, duidelijk!

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