Trump Trade War - Record pace of US steel scrap exports to Mexico
Platts reported that through the first four months of 2018, US steel scrap shipments to Mexico were on a record pace, but that trade flow may be disrupted with the implementation of Section 232 tariffs on Mexican steel products. The US exported over 700,000 mt of ferrous scrap to Mexico this year through April, on pace for 2.1 million ton this year, which would be a record. Mexico supplanted Taiwan as the second-largest buyer of US steel scrap behind Turkey in 2016, when it imported 1.49 million tons, and has maintained that position since, importing 1.66 million tons in 2017.
In April, the most recent month of data available from the US Department of Commerce and US International Trade Commission, Mexico imported 230,022 tons of steel scrap from the US, the most this year.
Whether or not the trade flow will continue is unclear after last week's decision to lift temporary Section 232 exemptions on Mexico, in addition to Canada and the EU, beginning June 1.
One scrap supplier to Mexico said that "I think that if the 25% tariffs stay in place more than 60-90 days it will have a big impact. We have seen both Canadian mills and Mexican mills recoil due to the recent announcement, now did mills change their buy program due to end Q2 inventory targets? Or did the 25% tariff change their programs?"
Mexico buys primarily HMS 1 and shredded from the US. In 2018 Mexico has imported 401,098 tons of HMS 1 and 151,837 tons of shredded scrap from the US.
While there has been no mention of a Mexican tariff on US scrap, Mexico imposed 15%-25% tariffs on US steel products in retaliation to the US duties.
Over 330,000 tons of the HMS 1 came across the border in Laredo, Texas, while scrap cargoes have arrived this year from Houston (34,106 tons), New York (27,500 tons), Philadelphia (29,274 tons), Providence (46,199 tons), San Juan, Puerto Rico (43,200 tons) and Tampa (30,000 tons). Those cargoes from the US contain a majority of shredded material.
Another US scrap supplier said that "Mexico business is going to really start to feel the effects of the tariffs I would think moving forward.”
The scrap flow between the US and Mexico has historically been a two-way street. Mexico had also been the second-largest exporter of scrap to the US behind Canada for most of this decade before falling behind the UK and Sweden in recent years in 2016.
One US Southwest scrap supplier said that "I think you are going to see the trend [of US scrap exports to Mexico] drop sharply this month as there is a large delta between the US and Mexican markets currently.”
The US scrap premium over Mexico, he added, would continue to grow based on the upcoming Mexico presidential election, stalling NAFTA negotiations and a falling peso in addition to the tariff pressure.
The supplier said that "We still have a little scrap moving south, but not near as much as early in the year and we now have much more material moving north out of Mexico into the US market.”
Source : Platts