SNSN schreef op 21 januari 2019 20:32:
St-horizon:On Dec 24 & Jan 3 the stock has hit the 'second target' ~127-130 (read old posts for details).
And at ~132 (at the end of Dec 2018) the upper edge of long-term 'strategic uptrend' (formed since 2010) was tested.
Thus, since new year you saw just standard (upwards) 'border reaction' (at the upper edge of strategic uptrend since 2010) towards the upper edge of the mt-downtrend (formed since Jul 24) which is currently around ~143.60.
Indeed, on Dec 7, 2018, you were informed that:
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To determine the upper edge value 'P' of mt-downtrend (since Jul 24) at any time/day in past & future (on daily-scale chart) you may use the following eq.:
P = 189.50 - 0.364 * X
Here value 'X' is a number of sessions since Jul 24. For instance, for Jul 24 X = 0, for Jul 25 X = 1, for Aug 7 X = 10, ......
This eq. determines a 'mean'(of the upper edge for mt-downtrend) for each day/session, and is based only on the time-series data till Aug 8. -----------------------------------------------------------------------
So, given that variable X = 126 today (Jan 21), one can easy get:
P (Jan 21) = 189.50 - 0.364 * 126 = ~143.64 So far, on st-horizon the stock has just tested (
at low average volume) the upper edge of mt-downtrend formed since Jul 24, and thus standard downwards 'border reaction' towards the 'strategic target (read old posts) -
median ~116 of 'strategic uptrend' (formed since 2010) - should NOT be excluded. The prob (for downwards 'border reaction') is really high, as there is NO any fundamental change in the stock fundamentals that could change the mt-downtrend since Jul 24, 2018.
MT-horizon:The stock is still in mt-downtrend, and the prob is quite high to stay there.
Don't forget that since Oct 17 the stock was forming
'descending triangular' pattern with (horizontal) support around ~140, 'height' H = ~26 and maturity on the first week of Feb. Thus, standard evaluation gives the
'pattern target' as low as around
~114 (=140-26). As you see, the 'pattern target' is very close to the 'median' of the 'strategic uptrend' channel
~116 (read just above).
Good luck.