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Analyst reports 2019

382 Posts, Pagina: « 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 ... 16 17 18 19 20 » | Laatste

Omlaag ↓

[verwijderd] 31 juli 2019 23:49

Hij wil de FDA niet beïnvloeden. Politiek niet correct om daar op dit moment iets over te schrijven.

fc

Beurskingpin 31 juli 2019 23:57

Ab!! Zeer interresant artikel..een van de velen op vlak van jak2selectivity, naarmate we richting marktintroductie gaan..

avantiavanti 1 augustus 2019 09:33

Edit: op slide 30, 32 en 33 zie je een aantal woorden die zwartgelakt zijn. Met de PDF-zoekfunctie of door simpelweg de tekst te selecteren/plakken kun je achterhalen dat daar upadacitinib staat. Wat zou de reden zijn dat dit afgeschermd is? Of is het een zoekplaatje om te controleren of de lezer goed opgelet heeft?
[/quote]

Waarschijnlijk bang voor een rechtzaak, of ze willen Abbvie niet voor het hoofd stoten omdat ze klant zijn. Veel zoden zet deze blacked out niet aan de dijk, want overduidelijk betreft het idd Upa.

MtBaker 1 augustus 2019 09:36

je kan zelfs verdedigen dat het daarmee extra benadrukt wordt.

avantiavanti 1 augustus 2019 15:27

Extract UBS 31 juli 2019

UBS is weer gestart met Galapagos actief de volgen. Van neutral met TP 91 Euro nu naar BUY met TP 190 Euro.

Galapagos NV
More on offer; upgrade to Buy

Transformative deal not yet fully priced in
Since the announcement of the deal between Galapagos and Gilead to enter a ten year R&D and commercialisation collaboration ($3.95b cash, $1.1b equity), Galapagos shares have risen 20%. Our new sum of the parts valuation includes updated estimates for key pipeline assets and implies further upside of almost 20%. Reverse engineering the SOTP suggests that the market currently assigns little value to early stage research.
We believe that this is too conservative and that data for GLPG3312 (Toledo project, see below) in 2H will be a catalyst for some de-risking of this asset and that Gilead's investment increases the likelihood that Galapagos can eventually produce another drug of similar size to current lead asset filgotinib.

Toledo is generating interest among investors and data is due in 2H
Galapagos has discovered a novel target in inflammatory disease and is developing several potential drugs which it says show signs of exceptional efficacy as the "Toledo" project. We will see phase I data for the first of these (GLPG3312) in 2H and this should green-light a broad phase II programme starting in 1H20. The target has not yet been revealed (exp. 1H20) but we think initiation of a phase I study for a second compound (GLPG3970) in 2H19 will be taken positively. Gilead's investment is largely seen as a
vote of confidence in Toledo and developments will be watched closely.

Filgotinib should see three launches in three years; UBSe sales of $2b in 2026
After uncertainty around what safety data is needed for submission, expectations are now set for filing before the end of 2019. This should mark the start of a chain of events that will see launches in each of three indications (RA, UC, CD) over the next three years. In line with consensus, we believe this can be a $2b+ drug by 2026.
Changes to the existing filgotinib agreement with Gilead will also enable Galapagos to gain commercial experience in major markets before a solo European launch of GLPG1690 in IPF in a few years' time.

Valuation: SOTP based price target of EUR190
We value Galapagos shares using an NPV sum of the parts approach. We account for
Gilead's cash input and the dilutive impact of share issuance via the deal.

Analyst: Laura Sutcliffe

holenbeer 1 augustus 2019 18:55

quote:
MtBaker schreef op 1 augustus 2019 09:36:
je kan zelfs verdedigen dat het daarmee extra benadrukt wordt.

Ik dacht dat dat al de black box voor upa was :-)

MtBaker 1 augustus 2019 19:58

haha

F_VR 3 augustus 2019 20:08

quote:
avantiavanti schreef op 31 juli 2019 18:11:
Umer's JAK's safety deep dive

Al jaren Galapagos aandeelhouder, niet bepaald een actief forumlid maar wel dankbaar gebruikster van de rapportages die U deelt op dit forum.
Avantiavanti, ontzettend bedankt hiervoor!!

Wall Street Trader 6 augustus 2019 15:40

Cowen and Company Biotech Thermometer (August 2019)

Stocks Most Loved By The Buyside:

GLPG

Phil Nadeau from Cowen & Co. maintained a Buy rating on Galapagos NV.

Bijlage:

avantiavanti 17 augustus 2019 12:32

Raymond James 16 augustus 2019

RINVOQ Approved Label Turns Focus on Filgotinib to Differentiate

Bijlage:

avantiavanti 20 augustus 2019 10:12

Cantor Fitzgerald 19 augustus 2019

Bijlage:

avantiavanti 20 augustus 2019 10:18

H.C. Wainwright & CO 19 augustus 2019

Bijlage:

avantiavanti 20 augustus 2019 10:28

Extract SVB Leerink 18 augustus 2019

Bijlage:

avantiavanti 20 augustus 2019 10:35

Extract SVB Leerink mbt Abbvie 18 augustus 2019

Bijlage:

avantiavanti 27 augustus 2019 08:04

Barclays 26 augutus 2019

Taking the road less traveled

Stock Rating: Overweight
Industry View: Positive
Price Target: EUR 170.00 (from EUR 140.00)
Price (23-Aug-2019): EUR 148.90
Potential Upside/Downside: +14.2%
Tickers: GLPG NA / GLPG.AS

Bijlage:

Wall Street Trader 6 september 2019 13:39

Credit Suisse (September 2019)

M&A View: Potential Buyers and Targets

Galapagos 30% - 70% Premium

Bijlage:

[verwijderd] 6 september 2019 20:39

quote:
Wall Street Trader schreef op 6 september 2019 13:39:
Credit Suisse (September 2019)

M&A View: Potential Buyers and Targets

Galapagos 30% - 70% Premium

I do find it suprising they put GLPG on the list of potential buyouts..

[verwijderd] 6 september 2019 20:44

Volgende week weer lekker omhoog kruipen.

avantiavanti 9 september 2019 09:45

Samenvatting Morgan Stanley update 8 september 2019

Large Differentiated Pipeline Headlined By Filgotinib, Resume at OW

Stock Rating Overweight
Price Target $200.00

Matthew Harrison, Connor Meehan, Vikram Purohit

We resume coverage at OW with a $200 PT. The recent transaction with Gilead provides Galapagos with a strong partner to drive the broad pipeline while building commercial operations in the EU. Filgotinib drives near-term upside while the >$5B cash position provides downside protection.

Resuming coverage at OW: Galapagos is a clinical-stage biotechnology company focused on discovering and developing small molecule therapeutics with differentiated modes of action. Galapagos has a series of proprietary and partnered compounds currently in development across a variety of indications, most notably inflammatory diseases. In support and validation of this innovative pipeline, Gilead and Galapagos recently finalized a long-term global R&D collaboration. The deal was valued at ~$5.1Bn, with Gilead paying ~$3.95Bn to Galapagos in cash, along with a ~$1.1Bn equity investment (Gilead now has ~22% ownership). Galapagos stands to gain in a variety of ways; the immediate cash injection will enable management to continue with the development of ongoing clinical and pre-clinical programs, along with providing a means to expand the company's proven target discovery engine (from ~500 to ~1,000 scientists). Additionally, the deal allows Galapagos to leverage Gilead's core competencies, which will aid management in their efforts to deliver an integrated biopharma organization with the ability to efficiently commercialize compounds that have demonstrated success in the clinic. In exchange for the investment, Gilead received opt-in rights for all of Galapagos' programs ex-EU, along with warrants to potentially increase equity ownership in Galapagos to ~30%. Strategically, this transaction grows Gilead's mid-to-late stage pipeline in inflammatory diseases and increases its early stage research engine. Our original full note and the terms of the deal can be found here, and Gilead's press release can be found here.

We believe Galapagos is well positioned for success following the transaction with Gilead. In addition to the immediate benefits associated with the collaboration, Galapagos has a series of value drivers that we believe are likely to contribute to both short and long-term upside. Among near-term value drivers, the most notable is filgotinib, which is Galapagos' lead product candidate. Filgotinib is a highly selective, orally-administered JAK1 inhibitor that is currently in development for a variety of inflammatory indications. Leading indications include Rheumatoid Arthritis (RA), Ulcerative Collitis (UC), and Crohn's Disease (CD). Notably, when compared to competitors Xeljanz and Olumiant, we believe the drug has best in class efficacy with a cleaner safety profile. With the filing accepted in the EU for RA and on-track for this year in the US, we see continued progress with filgotinib as a key valuation driver. We model ~$550M in US royalties and ~$330M in OUS 2025E profit-split for filgotinib.

Both proprietary and partnered programs provide near-term catalysts: In addition to filgotinib, Galapagos has a series of other programs, both partnered and proprietary, that represent key value drivers for the company. A summary of these programs, along with the next key catalyst for each, can be found below.

Upcoming R&D day and Toledo compound disclosure represent additional catalysts: In addition to the assets above, Galapagos is currently developing a class of drugs known as Toledo compounds. The class of drugs is intended to address inflammatory diseases, and though the method of action has yet to be disclosed, management has emphasized continued confidence in the program as a whole. A PhI trial evaluating GLPG3312 (a first generation Toledo compound) began in 2Q19, and we expect initial data in 2020. Notably, the Toledo mechanism has outperformed any other mechanism management has evaluated in preclinical studies for IBD. More broadly, Galapagos intends to host an R&D day on 11/14 which could provide further insight into their pipeline.

Risk reward is positively skewed as a result of near-term catalysts and cash position. The Gilead transaction, which increased cash to ~60% of the current market cap, provides investors with significant downside protection and a positive risk/reward skew regarding the pipeline. We continue to view filgotinib coupled with continued pipeline execution as the key factors driving GLPG higher.

Bijlage: Key progranms and next catalysts MS

Bijlage:

Wall Street Trader 9 september 2019 11:53

Thank you avantiavanti for the report.
Keep them coming!

Morgan Stanley hervat coverage op de ADR aandelen met een "overweight"-advies en $200 koersdoel (23% opwaarts pot.)
Gemiddelde ADR-koersdoel bedraagt nu $195.20, obv 12 adviezen (geen enkel sell-advies).

Pipeline from the Morgan Stanley report.

Bijlage:

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