Conclusie van de schrijver in het Engels:
To conclude, I believe that there is a big buying opportunity based on the discrepancy between record high volatility and Flow Traders' stock price. This discrepancy looks to be caused by recent negative earnings surprises which caused a drawback in investor appetite. My analysis shows that these negative factors are partially short term. Moreover, they are negligible compared to the importance of the increase in volatility which looks to be a long term driver for Flow Traders. My reliable model indicates that an EPS of €1,47 can be expected for Q1 2020, excluding trading results from the last two weeks. I expect annual EPS to come above €3, which validates my price target of at least €35. I believe that Flow Traders can be an amazing hedge against the uncertain year 2020, primarily impacted by the Coronavirus. I initiated a position at €22/share for 10% of my portfolio. Together with a 10% position in Gilead (GILD), which could introduce a Covid-19 treatment as soon as April, I believe my portfolio is fully hedged for more volatility to come.
Last remark
Another company that benefits from high volatility is the US-listed Virtu Financial (VIRT). However, I prefer Flow Traders due to 2 reasons. First, Virtu is highly leveraged as a consequence of recent acquisitions. Second, in contrast to Flow Traders, Virtu does not always make money as they are also active in other business services. In 2019 they lost $0.56/share.