London: Consumers face ever higher oil prices in coming decades as investment in new supply is too slow to meet growing demand, the International Energy Agency said yesterday in its annual World Energy Outlook.
A barrel of crude may cost a nominal $57.79 in 2010 or $51.50 in real terms, up from a respective $40 and $35 expected last year, the IEA said. The nominal price may hit $97.30 in 2030, up from $65 expected last year.
It could even reach $130.30 if investment falls short.
"We have revised upwards our assumptions for oil prices in this Outlook," said the adviser to 26 industrialised countries.
"This revision reflects the continuing recent tightness of crude oil and refined products markets."
Oil in New York hit a record $78.40 in 2006, leaving consumer governments worried about their economies. Concern is also mounting over risks to energy supplies and climate change from burning fossil fuels.
The IEA's 596-page study urges world leaders to enact policies that will leave the world consuming 10 per cent less fuel in 2030 than if demand were unchecked.
To meet the world's thirst for oil, $4.3 trillion needs to be invested in oilfields and refineries by 2030 and it is far from certain all the investment will occur, the IEA said.
Resource nationalism, the trend for countries such as Venezuela and Russia to seek more cash and control from companies that work their oil and gas fields, is among the factors that may restrain investment.
The required investment of $164 billion a year is almost double actual spending of more than $100 billion a year in the first half of this decade, the IEA said.
"Investment needs to increase in each decade of the projection period as existing infrastructure becomes obsolete and demand increases," the report said.
Most of the investment - $125 billion a year - would be for developing and exploring oilfields with some $30 billion devoted to oil refining.
A shortfall in investment in new supplies would send oil prices even higher.
bron:http://www.gulfnews.com/business/Oil_and_Gas/10080648.html