Economic Outlook for the Divisions
Seeds and crop protection market1 Pharmaceuticals market2 Consumer health market3
2020 data provisional
1 Bayer’s estimate (as of January 2021), plus various local sources; currency-adjusted
2 Source: IQVIA Market Prognosis (as of September 2020); all rights reserved; currency-adjusted
3 Bayer’s estimate (as of November 2020), taking into account external sources; currency-adjusted
Growth 2020
+ 2% + 3% + 4%
A 3.1.1/2
Growth forecast 2021
+2% +5% +2%
We foresee moderate growth for the global seed and crop protection market (+2%). This will primarily be driven by strong global demand for corn and soybean, leading to increased acreages in the North America and Latin America regions and improving farm incomes. However, growth
Bayer Annual Report 2020 A Combined Management Report 100 3.1 Future Perspectives
will be held back by continuing pressure from the COVID-19 pandemic and regulatory and competitive factors.
We expect the pharmaceuticals market to expand by 5% in 2021 (2020: 3%). Growth momentum is expected to be fueled by price and volume increases along with product innovation, especially in connection with the advancing digital transformation of health care. We anticipate rising growth rates in all regions compared with 2020, with very positive market development expected in Asia in particular.
At around 2%, we anticipate that growth of the consumer health market in 2021 will be significantly below the 2020 level (about 4%), as we cycle over exceptionally high growth seen during the early phase of the pandemic in 2020. We also expect that social distancing and economic conditions will continue to put pressure on market growth.
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3.1.2 Corporate Outlook
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The following forecast is based on the current business development and our internal planning. It was prepared using the exchange rates as of December 31, 2020. A 1% appreciation (depreciation) of the euro against all other currencies would decrease (increase) sales by some €350 million and EBITDA before special items by about €100 million on an annual basis.
In fiscal 2021, we expect to generate sales of approximately €41 billion, which corresponds
to an increase of approximately 3% on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. We are targeting an EBITDA margin before special items of approximately 26%. Based on the aforementioned sales figure, this would correspond to EBITDA before special items of between €10.5 billion and €10.8 billion. We expect core earnings per share to come in at approximately €5.60 to €5.80.
To enhance the comparability of operating performance, we are presenting our forecast on a currency-adjusted basis as well15.
We expect to post currency-adjusted sales of approximately €42 billion to €43 billion, which corresponds to an increase of about 3% on a currency- and portfolio-adjusted basis. We expect to generate an EBITDA margin before special items of around 27% on a currency-adjusted basis. Based on the currency-adjusted sales forecast, this would correspond to EBITDA before special items of €11.2 billion to €11.5 billion and core earnings per share of approximately €6.10 to €6.30 on a currency-adjusted basis.