Hier hun model, zelfs maar gebaseerd op 1 analist voor 5 jaar, de overige 5 jaar (10 jaar waarop het model staat) rekenen ze zelfs door met groeicijfers van de eerste 5 jaar.
Below are the data sources, inputs and calculation used to determine the intrinsic value for Pharming Group.
ENXTAM:PHARM Discounted Cash Flow Data Sources
Data Point Source Value
Valuation Model 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
Levered Free Cash Flow Average of 3 Analyst Estimates (S&P Global) See below
Discount Rate (Cost of Equity) See below 5.7%
Perpetual Growth Rate 5-Year Average of NL Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 0.2%
An important part of a discounted cash flow is the discount rate, below we explain how it has been calculated.
Calculation of Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity for ENXTAM:PHARM
Data Point Calculation/ Source Result
Risk-Free Rate 5-Year Average of NL Long-Term Govt Bond Rate 0.2%
Equity Risk Premium S&P Global 5.2%
Biotechs Unlevered Beta Simply Wall St/ S&P Global 0.95
Re-levered Beta = 0.33 + [(0.66 * Unlevered beta) * (1 + (1 - tax rate) (Debt/Market Equity))]
= 0.33 + [(0.66 * 0.946) * (1 + (1 - 25.0%) (18.90%))] 1.054
Levered Beta Levered Beta limited to 0.8 to 2.0
(practical range for a stable firm) 1.054
Discount Rate/ Cost of Equity = Cost of Equity = Risk Free Rate + (Levered Beta * Equity Risk Premium)
= 0.20% + (1.054 * 5.23%) 5.71%
Discounted Cash Flow Calculation for ENXTAM:PHARM using 2 Stage Free Cash Flow to Equity
The calculations below outline how an intrinsic value for Pharming Group is arrived at by discounting future cash flows to their present value using the 2 stage method. We use analyst's estimates of cash flows going forward 10 years for the 1st stage, the 2nd stage assumes the company grows at a stable rate into perpetuity.
ENXTAM:PHARM DCF 1st Stage: Next 10 years cash flow forecast
Levered FCF (EUR, Millions) Source Present Value
Discounted (@ 5.71%)
2021 54,1 Analyst x1 51,18
2022 50,7 Analyst x1 45,37
2023 62,7 Analyst x1 53,08
2024 91,2 Analyst x1 73,03
2025 103,43 Est @ 13.41% 78,35
2026 113,2 Est @ 9.45% 81,12
2027 120,75 Est @ 6.67% 81,86
2028 126,46 Est @ 4.73% 81,1
2029 130,72 Est @ 3.37% 79,31
2030 133,89 Est @ 2.42% 76,84
Present value of next 10 years cash flows €701
ENXTAM:PHARM DCF 2nd Stage: Terminal Value
Calculation Result
Terminal Value FCF2030 × (1 + g) ÷ (Discount Rate – g)
= €133,888 x (1 + 0.20%) ÷ (5.71% - 0.20% ) €2.434,67
Present Value of Terminal Value = Terminal Value ÷ (1 + r)10
€2.435 ÷ (1 + 5.71%)10 €1.397,24
ENXTAM:PHARM Total Equity Value
Calculation Result
Total Equity Value = Present value of next 10 years cash flows + Terminal Value
= €701 + €1.397 €2.098,24
Equity Value per Share
(EUR) = Total value / Shares Outstanding
= €2.098 / 639 €3,28
ENXTAM:PHARM Discount to Share Price
Calculation Result
Value per share (EUR) From above. €3.28
Current discount Discount to share price of €1.09
= (€3.28 - €1.09) / €3.28 66.7%
Learn more about our DCF calculations in Simply Wall St’s analysis model.