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OCI - 2021

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Omlaag ↓

EJ77 15 april 2021 18:00

Technisch wel weer afgeketst op een oude weerstand. We zullen zien morgen...

BultiesBrothers 15 april 2021 20:27

www.theland.com.au/story/7208088/glob...

Will urea suffer the same fate as phosphate?
Wes Lefroy, Rabobank
15 Apr 2021, 11 a.m.
Cropping
Local grain growers are heavily exposed to global fertiliser price movements and ocean freight challenges.
Local grain growers are heavily exposed to global fertiliser price movements and ocean freight challenges.

Aa
The past three months have been difficult for farmers across the country procuring phosphate ahead of the winter cropping season, both from a supply and a price perspective.

In US Dollar terms, global di-ammonium phosphate (DAP) benchmarks have increased by between 37 and 47 per cent, year-to-date.

Many global suppliers have been caught on-the-hop, meaning supplies have also been very tight.

Local growers who locked-in prices and supply early have managed to miss the brunt of the pain.

Some of those who left it later are paying much higher prices for product that is yet to be delivered, or they have had to settle for an alternative phosphate fertiliser.

As the winter crop season is bearing down on us, attention is now turning to urea (nitrogen) for application through the winter and spring months.

As with phosphates, Australian growers are heavily reliant on global markets.

On average, 90 per cent of urea sold locally is imported.

This means growers remain heavily exposed to global fertiliser price movements, not to mention the ocean freight challenges experienced in recent months.

As of early April, global urea benchmarks across Asia have increased by about 23 per cent and urea of Middle East origin has increased by 39 per cent this year alone.

Like the phosphate market, the global urea price rally has been demand-led.

Chicago Board of Trade (CBOT) wheat, corn and soybean, in particular, continue to trade at price levels not seen since 2014.

This has encouraged Northern Hemisphere growers to buy-up on nitrogen ahead of spring.

As a result, big producers - and would-be exporters - in China, Russia and the USA have maintained focus on their respective local domestic markets, rather than making product available for export.

Similarly, prices of raw materials going into urea production have increased dramatically.

Prices of coal (China) and natural gas (US) have risen 48 and 56 per cent, respectively, during the past 12 months.

So, with global urea prices at the highest level since 2014, in US Dollar terms, the news is not all good for Australian growers.

But, it is not all bad either.

The good news is Rabobank expects to start seeing global urea prices decline, primarily as Northern Hemisphere demand starts to wane - starting in April and continuing through the second quarter.

As demand starts to ease, major producers will have greater export availability.

The second piece of good news is that we expect supplies will be ample, meaning that we do not foresee the global shortages that have been experienced in the phosphate market.

As the saying goes - timing is everything.

We are now on the cusp of the peak urea-importing period, with - on average - about 64 per cent of Australia's annual imports hitting our shores between April and July.

Given global prices can take months to flow-through locally, we consider it unlikely Australian growers will receive the full benefit of the global price downside this season.

The other "cloud" tempering our optimism is the current heavy congestion in global freight markets.

The Suez Canal may now be clear, but strong demand for shipping has caused some routes to almost double in price.

Prices per tonne between origin and destination have increased by as much as 5 per cent.

For growers, the importance of maintaining close communication with suppliers was reaffirmed during the summer.

We see this as imperative to ensure farmers don't suffer the same fate, as some did with phosphate.

Windkracht 16 april 2021 09:27

Mooi volume het eerste half uur! En dito stijging.

voda 16 april 2021 10:36

Credit Suisse handhaaft Outperform advies op OCI
10:31
*Credit Suisse verhoogt koersdoel OCI van 20,00 naar 22,00 euro

Bron Binck

voda 16 april 2021 10:56

Beursblik: Credit Suisse verhoogt koersdoel OCI

FONDS KOERS VERSCHIL VERSCHIL % BEURS
OCI
19,17 0,38 2,02 % Euronext Amsterdam

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) Credit Suisse heeft vrijdag het koersdoel voor OCI verhoogd van 20,00 naar 22,00 euro bij handhaving van het Outperform advies.

Analisten van de Zwitserse zakenbank verhoogden de EBITDA-ramingen voor de periode 2021 tot en met 2023 met gemiddeld 7 procent en kwamen daardoor tot een hoger koersdoel.

De ramingen gingen omhoog dankzij de hogere prijzen voor methanol en kunstmest. Het momentum in deze markten lijkt aan te houden en bovendien compenseert het ruimschoots voor de tegenwind op de Europese gasmarkt.

Het kunnen vasthouden van hoge operationele tarieven bij de belangrijkste fabrieken in combinatie met de brede productportefeuille zorgen ervoor dat OCI vermoedelijk beter zal presteren dan de Europese sectorgenoten, aldus Credit Suisse.

De aantrekkende methanolprijzen in het eerste halfjaar laten bovendien zien dat de eindmarkten herstellen.

Het aandeel OCI steeg vrijdagochtend met 1,2 procent tot 19,01 euro.

Door: ABM Financial News.
info@abmfn.nl
Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved.

de schaatser 16 april 2021 11:23

jonge jonge wat een positieve berichten deze week.
Nu doorpakken en we staan zo op 22 euro.

waregem 16 april 2021 11:27

Stap per stap eerst 20 level
Top up. Oci

[verwijderd] 16 april 2021 11:34

Het waren dan toch de turbo,s long posities die woensdag ingenomen werden in totaal (99,500) stuks met een stoploss van 17,55 Goldman-Sachs en natuurlijk de draai diezelfde avond bij de peers in de VS.

effegenoeg 16 april 2021 11:55

Eindelijk uit de impasse vandaan.
Het was toch weer een bank die het zetje moest geven.

BultiesBrothers 16 april 2021 11:56

Of afketzen op de oude top van 19.40 of doorstomen naar een niveau van ca 19.70-19.80 om daar ook te kunnen afketzen tegen een lijntje als je meerdere toppen verbindt.

Irritant verder dat de 'forum' knop verdwenen is op de koerspagina van OCI en alle andere aandelen

BultiesBrothers 16 april 2021 14:03

Iemand moet maar even die koper van >80k aan turbo's in de gaten houden. Zolang die er in in blijft houd ik goede moed.

EJ77 16 april 2021 14:08

Afgeketst op de vorige post-corona top idd. Ik heb een steun staan op 18,90. Als ie daar doorheen zakt is het weer terug naar lage 18 regionen vrees ik.

BultiesBrothers 16 april 2021 16:18

Hopelijk sluiten we wel boven de 19.

Just lucky 16 april 2021 17:00

Het is wachten op de dag waarvan je wist dat hij komen zou; een grote koper die even 600k stukken koopt en de koers een dikke euro hoger zet.

Just lucky 16 april 2021 17:37

Wie wil er nou zo graag van zijn stukken af, toch weer een slotdump van bijna 200k stukken.

Ruval 16 april 2021 17:40

quote:
Just lucky schreef op 16 april 2021 17:37:
Wie wil er nou zo graag van zijn stukken af, toch weer een slotdump van bijna 200k stukken.

Soms moeten we ook gewoon tevreden zijn met deze positieve koers na een roerige week. Aandeel sluit op € 19, en positieve berichten komen op gang. Even een weekend op adem komen en dan verder omhoog!

[verwijderd] 16 april 2021 17:47

quote:
Just lucky schreef op 16 april 2021 17:37:
Wie wil er nou zo graag van zijn stukken af, toch weer een slotdump van bijna 200k stukken.

Op het Damrak is er geen een aandeel als OCI, zolang dit aandeel genoteerd is
is het pump en dump.

Just lucky 16 april 2021 18:28

quote:
jessebrown schreef op 16 april 2021 17:47:
[...]Op het Damrak is er geen een aandeel als OCI, zolang dit aandeel genoteerd is
is het pump en dump.

Mijn marsroute is, elke week € 0,5 erbij en dan op het eind van de week van de cijfers €21. Je zou toch zeggen dat dat makkelijk moet lukken met die prachtige berichten van de afgelopen weken.

BultiesBrothers 18 april 2021 22:41

Methanol:
** Fundamentals in the South Korean methanol market are expected to be slightly bullish in the week of April 11 from logistical delays and tight inventory, especially at Pyeongtaek, while demand continues to be healthy.

** Supply disruption in Trinidad and Tobago in April will likely be felt in the coming weeks and exert upward pressure on South Korean, Taiwan, and Southeast Asia methanol prices.

www.spglobal.com/platts/en/market-ins...
(wel van afgelopen week)

BultiesBrothers 18 april 2021 22:43

DTN Retail Fertilizer Trends
Nitrogen Prices Continue to Climb as Other Fertilizer Price Gains Cool
4/14/2021 | 4:38 PM CDT
Russ Quinn
By , DTN Staff Reporter
Connect with Russ:
The average retail price of UAN28 is 11% higher than last month at $341 per ton. It's 45% more expensive than last year. (DTN chart)
OMAHA (DTN) -- Average retail fertilizer prices continued to move higher the first week of April 2021, albeit at a slower pace than in recent weeks, according to sellers surveyed by DTN. For the second week in a row, several fertilizers saw only a slight push higher.

While all eight of the major fertilizers were higher in price, only three fertilizers' prices continue to be significantly higher, which DTN designates as 5% or more.

Anhydrous and UAN28 are both 11% higher compared to last month. Anhydrous had an average price of $692 per ton while UAN28 is $341/ton.

Also considerably higher is UAN32, which was up 10% from the prior month. The liquid nitrogen's average price was $378/ton.

The remaining five fertilizers were higher once again but had price increases of 4% or less.

DAP had an average price of $618/ton, MAP $699/ton, potash $431/ton, urea $504/ton and 10-34-0 $605/ton.

More Recommended for You

On a price per pound of nitrogen basis, the average urea price was at $0.55/lb.N, anhydrous $0.42/lb.N, UAN28 $0.61/lb.N and UAN32 $0.59/lb.N.

The rising retail fertilizer price environment has farmers wanting to be as efficient as possible when applying nutrients. A recent Penn State University (PSU) Extension article titled "Rising Fertilizer Prices Highlight Value of Soil Testing and Manure Nutrients" explores a couple ways to limit the impact of skyrocketing fertilizer prices.

Author Charles White, PSU assistant professor of soil fertility and nutrient management, wrote that soil testing is the traditional method of determining the availability of nutrient levels in relation to crop requirements. Soil tests are calibrated through field experimentation to determine at what level there are sufficient nutrients already in the soil to be able to meet the needs of a crop without additional fertilizer.

"This soil test level is called the 'critical level' and in the Penn State soil test interpretation categories (below optimum, optimum, above optimum), the critical level is at the bottom of the optimum range," White wrote.

The thought is to build soil test levels into the optimum range and maintain levels at this range by applying nutrients to match crop removal rates, he wrote. While this provides good economic returns in the long run, farmers can consider reducing fertilizer application rates for short periods of time due to cost or lack of availability if one follows the building components thanks to this buffer.

While you can't reduce fertilizer application rates forever, as soil test levels will fall below the critical level and yields will suffer, you can weather temporary price spikes and supply shortages if the soil test levels are in the optimum zone to begin with, he wrote.

To read the entire PSU article, click on the following link: .

With retail fertilizer prices moving higher over recent months, all fertilizers are now higher in price from a year ago.

Potash is now 17% more expensive, 10-34-0 is 29% higher, urea is 32% more expensive, UAN32 36% higher, anhydrous is 41% more expensive, UAN28 is 45% higher, DAP is 51% more expensive and MAP 61% is higher compared to last year.

DTN collects roughly 1,700 retail fertilizer bids from 310 retailer locations weekly. Not all fertilizer prices change each week. Prices are subject to change at any time.

DTN Pro Grains subscribers can find current retail fertilizer price in the DTN Fertilizer Index on the Fertilizer page under Farm Business.

Retail fertilizer charts dating back to 2010 are available in the DTN fertilizer segment. The charts included cost of N/lb., DAP, MAP, potash, urea, 10-34-0, anhydrous, UAN28 and UAN32.

DRY
Date Range DAP MAP POTASH UREA
Apr 6-10 2020 409 434 370 382
May 4-8 2020 413 433 370 388
Jun 1-5 2020 407 431 364 373
Jun 29-Jul 3 2020 406 427 361 357
Jul 27-31 2020 410 429 358 355
Aug 24-28 2020 430 435 352 355
Sep 21-25 2020 434 453 338 361
Oct 19-23 2020 446 476 332 359
Nov 16-20 2020 455 488 336 358
Dec 14-18 2020 466 522 360 361
Jan 11-15 2021 486 551 373 373
Feb 8-12 2021 588 642 398 453
Mar 8-12 2021 615 690 423 483
Apr 5-9 2021 618 699 431 504
LIQUID
Date Range 10-34-0 ANHYD UAN28 UAN32
Apr 6-10 2020 468 492 235 278
May 4-8 2020 468 492 237 280
Jun 1-5 2020 468 475 236 276
Jun 29-Jul 3 2020 468 461 233 272
Jul 27-31 2020 465 454 223 262
Aug 24-28 2020 464 442 219 258
Sep 21-25 2020 457 425 215 253
Oct 19-23 2020 456 424 209 249
Nov 16-20 2020 455 422 207 249
Dec 14-18 2020 463 450 210 253
Jan 11-15 2021 469 474 210 247
Feb 8-12 2021 512 524 243 285
Mar 8-12 2021 581 625 306 344
Apr 5-9 2021 605 692 341 378

www.dtnpf.com/agriculture/web/ag/crop...

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