Iemand die zijn huiswerk maakte.
stijging begint wel af te vlakken.
Hello everyone, He tells himself everything and its opposite on the contract in Ghana. So I will try to enhance it with all the information we have.
First of all, here is the list we have:
Annex to the accounts
Management report 2019
Press release concerning the mega contract
Documents given to members of the shareholders' club (you must be a registered shareholder and send an email to the box on the group's website to join him).
Management report: Once the production costs have been deducted by the selected companies, the budget allocated to CIOA for its mission is
:
- 54M USD / year for the Manufacturing department
- 100M USD for MOD services: project management, procurement, management.
For the implementation of this program, CIOA:
§ will transfer industrial licenses to operators benefiting from the supply contracts,
§ will delegate the guarantees provided by the State to the companies awarded the works contracts, so that they
finance their work sections.
The ALLOCATED BUDGET (and not the CA) to Cioa is therefore 154M the first year then 54M for 9 years, or 640M dollars.
In addition to that (or including, it is not clear), Cioa sells its industrial licenses, in particular that of BATI-FABLAB (I extrapolate) from which we know that "This offer generates:
o Minimum invoicing: license fees (a / c € 250K), equipment sales (from € 300K to several million € depending on the projects to be developed) and royalties (€ 30 / m2). "
If it's on top of that, then 30 € / m² represents a little more than 600M of additional budget (2M of m² according to the press release on the mega contract), if it is included in it, then it is coherent (600M on one side, 640M on the other, it looks like).
If it is included in it, then you have to convert 640M of budget into CA. To do that, you have to look at the document "collaborative for change" submitted to members of the shareholders' club.
There is a contract that closely resembles the contract in Ghana: the Case study: town of Bafoussam "where Cioa had to build 350 homes for a budget of 15M euros.
The group indicates that for this project "our constructive process makes it possible to generate 30% of added value, or 4.5M".
From what I understand, Turnover = Budget * 30%
So, if we report this to Ghana: Turnover = 640M * 30% = 192M including 46.2M the first year and 16.2M every year for 9 years.
Cioa's net margins are around 12%, the net result of the contract would therefore be 192 * 12% = 23.04M dollars (a little less in euros) therefore 5.5M the first year and 1.944M per year for 9 years.
And that's without taking into account the fact that net margins will probably increase over the years (increase in staff expertise, depreciation of machines, etc.) and without taking into account the fact that the licenses will be sold for an unknown amount. .
I recognize that these amounts are lower than those hoped for by the forum (I myself spoke of much higher amounts a year ago) but they seem more realistic (even if probably conservative or even very conservative) and make it possible to avoid what will seem be a bad surprise.
I do not change my mind on the fact that the box is worth, without this contract, at least 3.5 € per share. With $ 2M in RN per additional year for 10 years. It is worth at least triple, if not more, say 11 €.
To this must be added the earnings of the first year which can either result in a very generous dividend (€ 1 per share), which seems quite improbable because not really the CEO's policy in the emails I was able to exchange with him, a reinvestment in the box allowing a total change of scale and an exponential growth in the years to come.
Finally, we must add the unknown results on license transfers.
The more credibility Cioa gains, the easier it will be to win similar contracts in other African countries. The group obtained the contract with SIC in Cameroon and does not intend to stop there. It is almost in a monopoly situation on this ground, nobody is interested yet in the African market, and itis very good for us.
It seems very unlikely that buying at € 2.2 a share is a losing bet. Even at € 5 you don't risk much, so get on the train before it's too late :)