Pounce on TPG Pace Beneficial Finance While It’s Still Beaten Down
There's still a solid opportunity to enter TPGY stock at a more-than-reasonable entry point
By Matt McCall and the InvestorPlace Research Staff, Editor, MoneyWire May 6, 2021, 3:44 pm EDT
Investors continue to overlook the opportunity with TPG Pace Beneficial Finance (NYSE:TPGY) stock. Beaten down by both the selloff in EV (electric vehicle) and SPAC (special purpose acquisition company) plays, shares remain 50% below their highs.
For some SPAC stocks the correction made sense. Especially for ones merging with EV startups, some of which became overheated following the “blue wave” results from the last election cycle. Yet, in the case of this one, set to merge with European charging company EVBox, the selloff has been way overdone.
nthusiasm may have cooled. But, the vehicle electrification megatrend remains in play. Over in Europe, mandates are helping to speed up the shift to EVs. This bodes well for the continued growth of EV charging companies, especially market incumbents like EVBox. And, in the United States, the Biden administration’s ambitious plans to push for mass adoption of EVs may create a similar environment stateside.
Biden’s plan is still pending. But, even a reduced level of federal support will provide a massive boost for U.S. EV charging industry growth.
More than reasonably priced at around $17 per share, now’s the time to seize the opportunity. As more catch on that this SPAC was oversold, this favorable entry point won’t last for long.
PGY Stock Is a Great EV Charging Play
Several charging companies have gone (or are going) public via the SPAC route. So what makes this one special?
For starters, the fact EVBox got its start in Europe. As I discussed last month, it’s easier for a European-based EV company to enter the U.S. market, than vice-versa.
That is, with Europe’s complicated regulations, which vary from country to country, new entrants face many hurdles. This gives EVBox a first mover advantage. With regards to the U.S. market, yes things will get competitive. You can argue that U.S.-based charging companies may have an edge in their respective home market.
The European charging market is more mature (albeit still growing at a healthy clip). But, things are still on the ground floor stateside. The U.S. so far has been less aggressive in encouraging the pivot from gas-powered vehicles to electric-powered ones. Yet, this is set to change in a big way. Biden’s $2 trillion infrastructure plan, which provides billions in EV industry stimulus may be waiting on approval from the U.S. Congress. This may mean some adjustments before it’s signed into law.
Even so, the bill in its final form will most likely contain support for the EV industry. This stimulus will help turbo-charge the growth of the American charging industry. This bodes well for EVBox, as it makes its entry into the U.S. charging market. And, like I mentioned above, not only is this one of the strongest ways to play this trend. Following its 50% decline, you can enter it today at a more-than-reasonable valuation.
Don’t Underestimate EVBox’s Long-Term Potential
I wouldn’t go so far as to call TPGY stock a value play. Very few SPACs merging with early stage companies fit into the value stock category. But, relative to its projected growth, and long-term potential, shares are more than reasonably priced at $17 per share.
Based on the pro-forma valuation numbers provided in the SPAC merger presentation, this company will have 139 million outstanding shares once the deal closes. At today’s prices, that means an implied market capitalization of around $2.36 billion.
Compared to this year’s projected sales (€120 million, or $144.5 million), the valuation looks rich. But, compare today’s valuation to the company’s 2023 projections (€372 million, or $448 million) and the story changes. Based on these projections, its valuation starts to look a lot more reasonable. 2023 is also the year this company reaches its breakeven point on an EBITDA basis.
And, that’s only the start. It’s not as if growth will screech to a halt after 2023. Longer-term projections call for 50%+ annualized growth, 45% gross margins and eventual EBITDA margins of around 25%. Putting it simply, a $2.36 billion implied valuation underestimates the long-term value of this business.
Bottom Line: Pounce on This Opportunity While It Lasts
TPG Pace has found its floor at or around today’s prices. Investors right now may not be jumping into this opportunity. But, don’t expect that to remain the case. The markets corrected the out of hand prices some EV SPAC stocks were fetching earlier this year. But, they threw this one out with the bathwater.
With its first-mover advantage in Europe, and big potential to scale up in the U.S., EVBox stands a great chance of living up to its impressive growth projections. As more dive into the details, and realize how reasonably priced shares are today, they will start to rebound. In short, it’s time to pounce on TPGY stock, while this pricing discrepancy lasts.