body schreef op 15 maart 2015 12:38:
.."Ik ben er weer van"...
seekingalpha.com/article/2999396-phar...verything-seems-fine-for-ruconest-and-u-s-sales,
If nothing would really change for Ruconest and Pharming's deal, how is the current state of affairs then?
For the first partial quarter on the market (November 2014 to end of the year), Pharming reported about EUR 0.3 million in Ruconest royalties - along with the company's first operating profit of EUR 2.9 million for the full year. Since Pharming is entitled to 30% of Salix's net sales that would mean that initial sales of Ruconest were a little under $1 million in two months. With a reimbursed price of around $5,000 per vial, that represents around 200 vials sold.
As it was confirmed by Sijmen de Vries, Pharming's CEO, in the FY2014 conference call on March 5 that as a commercial offer, the first two doses of Ruconest were provided free of charge to every new patient, that would mean that actual product use would have been far greater that those 200 vials… In fact, if we estimate that Ruconest's target patients have on average 6 to 11 HAE attacks per year, that would mean a significant proportion of treated patients would not have been billed during those first two months - as under 84kg patients can be treated with only one vial (a significant dosing advantage for Ruconest) and most patients would have experienced one or two attacks at most. Only around 25% of HAE patients experience a significantly greater number of attacks (more than 24 per year) and those would have already used a larger number of Ruconest vials, mostly accounting for the $1 million sales in the period.
Therefore, I believe that Ruconest sales are indeed experiencing a very strong start, although the effect of those sales would only be fully reflected in Q1-2015 results (set to April 30). With this assumption, I anticipate that a quick revaluation of Pharming could be happening when results are published - while current so-called "uncertainties" create volatility and limit the effect of underlying good news, I believe this is a very good entry point ahead of Q1 results at the end of April.
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Bovenstaand gedeelte uit een door 'Seeking alpha' geplaatst artikel, is in lijn met mijn eigen gedachtengang. Deze lijn volgend, KANl de presentatie van Q1 2015 waarin de US-verkopen zullen worden benoemd, de definitieve bevestiging geven... In opmaat naar die cijfers, KAN het haast niet anders, dan dat de koers van Pharming op z'n minst volatiel en heftig zal reageren...