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[verwijderd] 5 februari 2020 22:56

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Friedlands uiteenzetting over koper, very, very interesting:

DRC to benefit from rise in global copper demand.
137 weergaven•5 feb. 2020
MiningWeekly
2,09K abonnees
CAPE TOWN (mininweekly.com) – Canadian mining company Ivanhoe Mines CEO Robert Friedland is capitalising on the rising need for more copper globally, with a mission to restore the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC's) position as the number one producer of copper metal in the world.

www.youtube.com/watch?v=mqkN05_IZeE&a...

[verwijderd] 22 juni 2020 18:32

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"If your IQ is over 100, buy copper not gold". - Friedland at last year's Sprott Symposium

[verwijderd] 27 augustus 2020 22:16

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Copper price to extend rally on “signs of Chinese panic buying”
Frik Els | August 27, 2020 | 8:25 am Intelligence Markets China Copper
Copper price to extend rally on "signs of Chinese panic buying"
Study the spirit of Daqing, persevere in the great principles of acting independently and with the initiative in one’s own hand and self-reliance. 1975. Image courtesy of chineseposters.net
Copper once again cleared the psychologically important $3 a pound level on Thursday on the back of falling inventories, booming Chinese demand and pandemic hit supply from South America, the US and Africa.
www.mining.com/copper-price-to-extend...

Laatste alinea:
Parallels to post-GFC
Barnes says the copper price will likely rise further towards the end of 2020, and that the current environment has strong parallels to the rebound in the copper price after the global financial crisis.
Copper hit a low of $1.32 a pound in January 2009, then surged to $3.55 by April the next year on its way to an all-time peak of $4.58 (more than $10,000 per tonne) in February 2011.

[verwijderd] 15 september 2020 17:15

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IVN, ga nou maar gewoon door die zes.

[verwijderd] 11 november 2020 17:36

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quote:
hosternokke schreef op 15 september 2020 17:15:
IVN, ga nou maar gewoon door die zes.

[verwijderd] 11 november 2020 18:46

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En bijna direct dondert de koers naar beneden.
Die kan ook niet veel hebben zeg.

[verwijderd] 30 november 2020 14:09

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Mining Giant Robert Friedland Interview Highlights.

Friedland’s message is mining’s essential role in the transition from fossil fuels. “...the reduction in the use of hydrocarbon and coal in the way we generate and transmit energy will be the largest transition in the evolution of our species that's happened in recorded modern history.”

He spoke of pop-culture’s “subliminal crucification of the mining industry… The miners are the bad guys, when actually the miners are giving you everything you need to live a modern life.”

“You don't like crude oil. You don't like coal. You want the world to be green. Well, then we're going to, you know, we're going to see the revenge of the miners. We're going to need much higher metals prices to stimulate the exploration and production process.”

“We only have one periodic table of elements to work with... So nickel, cobalt, and copper, along with the aluminum and the scandium to lighten the car body are huge winners, if you want to electrify the car. But what about generating the power?”

“People don't understand that an electric car is only as good as the electricity that powers it.”

“We've got solar power, but the sun doesn't shine all the time and we've got wind power, but the wind doesn't blow all the time. And those big windmills chew up a lot of birds. You know, if you're flying North with your girlfriend, you're a Canada goose and you're just having a conversation with your girlfriend. All of a sudden, poof! She's just a big cloud of feathers, cause you flew into a windmill. There is no free lunch in mother nature.”

“Every mine is located somewhere.. And so you have to worry about what is a sustainable long-term deal between international capital and the people who grew up around the mine.”

“You've got a great mine if you're at the bottom of the world cost curve. You can afford to build schools and hospitals and do agricultural projects and employ women and train people and really benefit the local community. But you need a great mine to do that. You need a tier one world-class mine with a hundred years of life and at the bottom of the world cost curve.”

“It's very dangerous to build a mine wherever you have a positive water balance. You've probably never thought about this, but the positive water balance is where rainfall and snow exceeds evaporative loss. So if you go to Brazil and you see all that endless jungle, that looks like broccoli from an aircraft, it's raining more than it's evaporating. So if you build a tailings pond - that's the waste from the mining - you have to guarantee the integrity of that tailings pond in perpetuity. And that's a long time.”

“The highest grade copper is the greenest copper. If my copper mine is 10 times the grade of your copper mine, I'm using 1/10th of the concrete, 1/10th of the steel, 1/10th of the electrical energy, my tailings dam is 1/10th as big. So my footprint on the earth is much smaller. Someday we'll be mining Mars. You know, we'll go to another planet to do the mining, but right now we're stuck with terrestrial mining.”

“...not all copper is the same. It may all trade at the same price right now. Today, the price of copper is say $7,100 a ton. In the future, you're going to have 40 grades of copper trading based on how much global warming gas it produces.”

pro.ceo.ca/@tommy/mining-giant-makes-...

DeZwarteRidder 3 maart 2021 09:58

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www.ivanhoemines.com/site/assets/file...

DeZwarteRidder 3 maart 2021 12:16

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www.investing.com/equities/ivanhoe-mi...

DeZwarteRidder 3 maart 2021 12:46

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Kamoa-Kakula Project

The Kamoa-Kakula Copper Project — a joint venture between Ivanhoe Mines (39.6%), Zijin Mining Group (39.6%), Crystal River Global Limited (0.8%) and the Government of the Democratic Republic of Congo (20%) — has been independently ranked as the world's largest, undeveloped, high-grade copper discovery by international mining consultant Wood Mackenzie. It is a very large, near-surface, flat-lying, stratiform copper deposit with adjacent prospective exploration areas within the Central African Copperbelt, approximately 25 kilometres west of the town of Kolwezi and about 270 kilometres west of the provincial capital of Lubumbashi.

First copper production expected in July 2021

Initial production at the Kakula Mine processing plant is scheduled in July 2021. Kakula is projected to be the world’s highest-grade major copper mine, with an initial mining rate of 3.8 million tonnes per annum (Mtpa) at an estimated average feed grade of more than 6.0% copper over the first five years of operation. Kakula is the first of multiple, planned, high-grade mining areas on the 400-square-kilometre Kamoa-Kakula mining licence.

The Kakula Mine will have one of the most favourable environmental footprints of any tier-one copper mine worldwide. The mine will be powered by clean, renewable hydroelectricity and be among the world's lowest greenhouse gas emitters per unit of copper produced. Kakula also will have a relatively small surface footprint, as approximately 55% of the mine’s tailings will be pumped back into underground workings.

All long-lead items for Kakula’s initial 3.8-Mtpa processing plant now have been delivered to site with the exception of the transformers, which are currently en route and expected around the third week of October.

On October 1, 2020, Ivanhoe Mines announced that underground development at the Kamoa-Kakula Copper Project totalled 2,069 metres in September, setting a new monthly record for the project and bringing the total underground development to more than 22.6 kilometres – approximately 7.0 kilometres, or 44% ahead of schedule.

A Floatation platform lift during construction of the initial Kakula Copper Mine

The project’s monthly total of 2,069 metres of underground development is comprised of 1,696 metres at the Kakula Mine and 373 metres at the Kansoko Mine, which is located at the Kamoa Deposit – approximately 10 kilometres north of the Kakula Mine.

Several underground development headings at the Kakula Mine now have transitioned into the higher-grade ore zones near the centre of the deposit, grading between approximately +5% copper and +8% copper. October will be the first month of mining in Kakula’s high-grade ore from the southern access drives, and this ore will be stored on a separate high-grade surface stockpile near the southern decline. Mining on the northern side of the orebody also will soon intersect the higher grade ore.

The main access drives between northern and southern declines have less than 520 metres remaining before they connect in the high-grade centre of the deposit. The connection is expected to occur next month and will significantly increase ventilation to the centre of the orebody, allowing for additional mining crews to begin work in Kakula’s high-grade ore zones.

The Kakula Copper Mine in the Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) is on track for first production in Q3 2021

In addition to driving the main connecting access drives, underground mining crews at Kakula are focused on preparation work for developing the high grade, drift-and-fill stoping blocks in the centre of the orebody, where the average grade is up to +8% copper. Opening up of the mining footprint for these high-grade stoping areas entails development work in areas of low-, medium- and high-grade ore, and is designed to coincide with the start-up of the processing plant next year. This will allow mining crews to deliver high-grade stoping ore directly from the underground to the processing plant.

Drift-and-fill stoping is a highly-efficient form of underground mechanized mining and will allow the operation to efficiently recover significantly more tonnes from the orebody. Once drift-and-fill stoping operations begin, mining at the Kakula Mine will produce a significantly higher proportion of high-grade stoping ore than lower-grade development ore.

Underground development at the Kansoko Mine currently is in low-to-medium-grade ore zones, grading between approximately +2% and +3% copper. Kansoko is being developed by training crews and will be a supplemental source of ore when the Kakula concentrator processing capacity doubles to 7.6 Mtpa - currently planned to be commissioned in Q2 2022.

Pre-production surface ore stockpiles now total more than 803,000 tonnes

In September, mining crews at the Kakula and Kansoko mines produced and transported to surface approximately 132,000 tonnes of ore, bringing the project’s total pre-production ore stockpiles to an estimated 803,000 tonnes. September’s ore production is approximately 24% higher than August.

[verwijderd] 3 maart 2021 13:55

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@sirius "The Kakula 2020 FS highlights that a mining rate of 6 Mtpa yields an after-tax NPV8% of US$5.5 billion and IRR of 77% at a long-term copper price of US$3.10/lb, rising to US$8.4 billion and IRR of 100% at a copper price of US$4.00/lb, and US$9.5 billion and 106.9% at a copper price of US$4.50/lb.

The Kakula-Kansoko 2020 PFS highlights that a mining rate of 7.6 Mtpa yields an after-tax NPV8% of US$6.6 billion and IRR of 69% at a long-term copper price of US$3.10/lb, rising to US$10.5 billion and IRR of 93% at a copper price of US$4.00/lb, and US$12.0 billion and 99.8% at a copper price of US$4.50/lb.

The Kamoa-Kakula 2020 PEA highlights that a mining rate of 19 Mtpa yields an after-tax NPV8% of US$11.1 billion and IRR of 56.2% at a long-term copper price of US$3.10/lb, rising to US$18.1 billion and IRR of 79.9% at a copper price of US$4.00/lb, and US$20.9 billion and IRR of 89% at a copper price of US$4.50/lb." 4 1 Mar 2021, 13:39

@Tothej That’s when you look at those numbers that you realize how exceptional is this project! 1 1 Mar 2021, 13:53

ceo.ca/ivn?6a8adc130a35

DeZwarteRidder 3 maart 2021 14:36

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The ore being mined from the northern portion of the Kakula Mine is transported to surface via the conveyor system and placed on a blended surface stockpile that now contains 540,000 tonnes grading an estimated 3.73% copper; comprised of 125,000 tonnes of high-grade ore grading 6.00% copper, and 415,000 tonnes of medium-grade ore grading 3.05% copper.

Two additional, pre-production ore stockpiles are located at the Kakula South decline (approximately 168,000 tonnes grading 2.73% copper) and the Kansoko decline (approximately 95,000 tonnes grading 2.34% copper).

Kamoa-Kakula Integrated Development Plan 2020 (IDP 2020)

In September 2020, Ivanhoe Mines announced extremely positive findings of an independent definitive feasibility study (DFS) for the development of the Kakula Copper Mine; together with an updated pre-feasibility study (PFS) that includes ore mined from the nearby Kansoko Copper Mine in addition to ore mined from Kakula; and an updated, expanded preliminary economic assessment (PEA) for the overall development plan of all the copper discoveries made to date at the Kamoa-Kakula Project on the Central African Copperbelt in the DRC.

The DFS, PFS and updated PEA, collectively referred to as the Kamoa-Kakula Integrated Development Plan 2020 (Kamoa-Kakula IDP20), build on the excellent results of the previous studies announced in February 2019. The new DFS incorporates the advancement of development and construction activities to date, and has once again confirmed the outstanding economics of the first phase Kakula Mine. As well, the expanded PEA shows the excellent potential to develop the project to a much larger scale and with a significantly larger production capacity.

Kamoa-Kakula mining licence, showing the Kamoa, Kamoa North, Kakula and Kakula West Mineral Resource areas, and a portion of Ivanhoe’s 100% owned Western Foreland area.

The Kamoa-Kakula Integrated Development Plan 2020 encompasses three development scenarios:

Definitive feasibility study for stage one Kakula Mine development. The Kakula 2020 DFS evaluates the development of a stage one, 6-Mtpa underground mine and surface processing complex at the Kakula Deposit with a capacity of 7.6 Mtpa, built in two modules of 3.8 Mtpa, with the first already under advanced construction.
Pre-feasibility study including Kansoko Mine development. The Kakula-Kansoko 2020 PFS evaluates the development of mining activities at the Kansoko Deposit in addition to the Kakula Mine, initially at a rate of 1.6 Mtpa to fill the concentrator at Kakula, eventually ramping up to 6 Mtpa as the reserves at Kakula are depleted.
Expanded, subsequent development to four producing mines. The Kamoa-Kakula 2020 PEA includes an analysis of the potential for an integrated, 19-Mtpa, multi-stage development, beginning with initial production from the Kakula Mine, to be followed by subsequent, separate underground mining operations at the nearby Kansoko, Kakula West and Kamoa North mines, along with the construction of a direct-to-blister smelter. The Kamoa North Area comprises five separate mines that would be developed as resources are mined out elsewhere, to maintain the production rate at up to 19 Mtpa, with an overall life in excess of 40 years.

The Kamoa-Kakula IDP20, which includes the Kakula 2020 DFS, Kakula-Kansoko 2020 PFS and Kamoa-Kakula 2020 PEA, was independently prepared on a 100%-basis by OreWin Pty Ltd. of Adelaide, Australia; China Nerin Engineering Co., Ltd., of Jiangxi, China; DRA Global of Johannesburg, South Africa; Epoch Resources of Johannesburg, South Africa; Golder Associates Africa of Midrand, South Africa; KGHM Cuprum R&D Centre Ltd. of Wroclaw, Poland; Outotec Oyj of Helsinki, Finland; Paterson and Cooke of Cape Town, South Africa; Stantec Consulting International LLC of Phoenix, USA; SRK Consulting Inc. of Johannesburg, South Africa; and Wood plc of Reno, USA.

Mill construction during development of the initial Kakula Copper Mine

The Kamoa-Kakula 2020 PEA is preliminary in nature and includes an economic analysis that is based, in part, on Inferred Mineral Resources. Inferred Mineral Resources are considered too speculative geologically for the application of economic considerations that would allow them to be categorized as Mineral Reserves – and there is no certainty that the results will be realized. Mineral Resources do not have demonstrated economic viability and are not Mineral Reserves.

Modular, integrated, expanded development option potential for the Kakula and Kamoa deposits, mining a total of 19 Mtpa, with construction of a direct-to-blister smelter

The Kamoa-Kakula 2020 PEA presents an additional development option of a multi-stage, sequential operation on Kamoa-Kakula’s high-grade copper deposits.
Initial production from the Kakula Mine at a rate of 6 Mtpa, followed by subsequent, separate underground mining operations at the nearby Kansoko, Kakula West and Kamoa North mines, along with the construction of a direct-to-blister smelter. The Kamoa North Area comprises five separate mines that will be developed as resources are mined out elsewhere, to maintain the production rate at up to 19 Mtpa, with an overall life in excess of 40 years.
For the integrated, 19-Mtpa, multi-stage development, the PEA envisages US$0.7 billion in remaining initial capital costs. Future expansion at the Kansoko Mine, Kakula West Mine and Kamoa North mines would be funded by cash flows from the Kakula Mine, resulting in an after-tax net present value at an 8% discount rate (NPV8%) of US$11.1 billion, an internal rate of return of 56.2%, and a payback period of 3.6 years.
Ivanhoe’s proportional share of the remaining initial capital cost of this option is approximately US$0.36 billion for the Kamoa-Kakula 2020 PEA.
Under this approach, the PEA also contemplates the construction of a direct-to-blister copper smelter at the Kakula plant site with a capacity to process one million tonnes of copper concentrate per annum to be funded from internal cash flows. This would be completed in year five of operations, achieving significant savings in treatment charges and transportation costs.
The 19-Mtpa scenario shows the potential for average annual production of 501,000 tonnes of copper at a total cash cost of US$1.07/lb. copper during the first 10 years of operations and production of 805,000 tonnes of copper by year 8. At this future production rate, Kamoa-Kakula would rank as the world’s second largest copper mine.

DeZwarteRidder 3 maart 2021 15:05

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Key initial projections from the Kakula 2020 DFS

The study evaluates the development of a stage one, 6-Mtpa underground mine and surface processing complex at the Kakula Deposit of 7.6 Mtpa, built in two modules of 3.8 Mtpa, with the first already under advanced construction. The first module of 3.8 Mtpa commences production in Q3 2021, and the second in Q1 2023. The life-of-mine production scenario provides for 110 million tonnes to be mined at an average grade of 5.22% copper, producing 8.5 million tonnes of high-grade copper concentrate, containing approximately 10.8 billion pounds of copper.

The economic analysis uses a consensus, real long-term copper price of US$3.10/lb. (excluding inflation) and returns an after-tax NPV at an 8% discount rate of US$5.5 billion. It has an after-tax IRR of 77.0% and a payback period of 2.3 years.

The estimated remaining initial capital cost, including contingency, is US$0.65 billion from July 1, 2020. The capital expenditure for off-site power, which is included in the remaining initial capital cost, includes advances to the DRC state-owned electricity company, Société Nationale d'Electricité (SNEL), to upgrade two hydropower plants (Koni and Mwadingusha) to provide the Kamoa-Kakula Project with access to clean electricity for its planned operations. The hydro-power upgrading work is being led by Stucky Ltd., of Renens, Switzerland, and the advance payments will be recovered by Kamoa-Kakula through a reduction in the power tariffs paid.

Aerial picture of the Mwadingusha hydro-electric dam and power plant, with the new installed penstocks. Mwadingusha will soon be delivering 72 megawatts (MW) of clean, sustainable hydro-electricity to the national grid. The Kakula Mine is scheduled to be energized with permanent, 220-kilovolt (kV), hydro-generated power from the national grid in early 2021.

Expanded 19-Mtpa development scenario for the Kakula and Kamoa deposits

The Kamoa-Kakula 2020 PEA also assesses an additional development option of mining several deposits on the Kamoa-Kakula Project as an integrated, 19-Mtpa mining, processing and smelting complex, built in multiple stages. This scenario envisages the construction and operation of three separate mines: first, an initial 6-Mtpa mining operation would be established at the Kakula Mine on the Kakula Deposit; this is followed by a subsequent, separate 6-Mtpa mining operation at the Kansoko Mine, where two crews are working already; a third 6-Mtpa mine then will be established at the Kakula West Mine, in addition to a fourth initial mine in the Kamoa North area operating initially at 1 Mtpa. The processing plant is constructed in five modules of 3.8 Mtpa, with an ultimate capacity of 19 Mtpa.

As the resources at the Kakula, Kansoko and Kakula West mines are mined out, production would begin sequentially at five other mines in the Kamoa North area to maintain throughput of 19 Mtpa to the then existing concentrator and smelter complex, as illustrated in Figure 1.

Each mining operation is expected to be a separate underground mine with a shared processing facility and surface infrastructure located at Kakula. Material will be transported to the Kakula processing complex by a system of overland conveyors. Included in this scenario is the construction of a direct-to-blister copper smelter with a capacity of one million tonnes of copper concentrate per annum.

The Kamoa-Kakula 2020 PEA is preliminary in nature and includes an economic analysis that is based, in part, on Inferred Mineral Resources. Inferred Mineral Resources are considered too speculative geologically for the application of economic considerations that would allow them to be categorized as Mineral Reserves – and there is no certainty that the results will be realized. Mineral Resources do not have demonstrated economic viability and are not Mineral Reserves.

Ultra-high-grade drill core, comprised almost entirely of chalcocite, from a hole drilled at Kamoa North. Kamoa North is an important source of high-grade ore in Kamoa-Kakula’s expanded 19 Mtpa development scenario. Chalcocite has the greatest percentage of copper of all the common sulphide-copper-bearing minerals - almost 80% copper by weight.

Summary of the PEA’s key results for the 19-Mtpa development scenario

Very-high-grade initial phase projected to have a grade of 6.8% copper in the first year of production and an average grade of 5.1% copper during the first 10 years of operations, resulting in estimated average annual copper production of 501,000 tonnes.

Recovered copper production is estimated at805,000 tonnes in year 8, which would rank the Kamoa-Kakula Project as the second largest copper producer in the world.

Remaining initial capital cost, including contingency, is US$0.71 billion, with subsequent expansions at Kansoko, Kakula West, and other mining areas, as well as the smelter, to be fundedbycash flows from the Kakula Mine.

Average total cash costs of US$1.07/lb. copper during the first 10 years, including sulphuric acid credits.

After-tax NPV, at an 8% discount rate, of US$11.1 billion.

After-tax IRR of 56.2% and a payback period of 3.6 years.

fiesta 6 maart 2021 10:25

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Een mening op stockhouse. In het Novo draadje

Ivanhoe (the developer of Kamoa Kakula, which is expected to be the world’s second-largest copper mine upon expansion) recently announced the updated development plan to construct second smelter to copper concentrates. This was a result of the push from the DRC government to facilitate local processing of ore.

The plan includes building a primary copper smelter with capacity to treat 1 million tonnes per year of copper concentrates. This roughly translates to 250,000 tpy of refined copper production.

Construction of the new smelter will be complete by the fifth year of operation, which will start this year in 2021. There is currently only one primary copper smelter in the DRC - Africa’s largest copper producer - which is China Nonferrous Mining Corp’s 120,000-tpy Lualaba smelter.

Who controls the “Engine Room” of the ship?

Since 2013, the DRC has tried to increase domestic refined metal output with restrictions on exports of copper concentrate to capture a greater portion of the mining value chain. Ivanhoe’s plan to add a copper smelter in Kamoa Kakula comes after copper miners were told in 2019 that they could not renew their waivers to export copper concentrate from September onward, if they do not show the government their long-term commitment to process copper ore domestically.

You cannot reach an agreement with the DRC government to build a mine this size without a ‘plan’ for a smelter. But in terms of investment return, you really wanted to avoid building the smelter for as long as possible. Better to smelter out of country and only perform the mining in the DRC. That's history.

IVN and Zijin Mining Group have been strong armed by the DRC into developing the DRC mining and smelting industries. That is one expensive and risky commitment for even the bravest of developers. And I will explain further down why China is a player.

Ivanhoe Mines and China’s Zijin Mining Group each own a 39.6% stake in the project, while the DRC government owns a 20% stake. One can only guess how this dynamic will change once everything fires up and the DRC metals come to market and generate revenue.

Where is this ship sailing?

So, where is IVN going here? A minority stakeholder in a multi-$billion operation in a wobbly resource rich African country like the DRC, and partnered with a Chinese SOE.

Chinese SOEs that develop and own resource assets such as this DO NOT pay market prices for the produced commodity. That’s why they place a stake in these plays in the first place. The Chinese SOE is designed to feed the Chinese industrial machine, not serve Western shareholders.

Sorry, but this stinks worse than a Mongolian cow rotting on the slopes of Turquoise Hill. It’s “green” alright. Green for the Toxic One when he once again exits stage left with the payoff. He and his Asian buddies are in perfect harmony with the gig.

Let’s talk copper. Let’s talk the new ”green” economy. Let’s talk about the bad actors that have claimed to adopt the new ESG religion.

Oh… and let’s talk about sobering up.

Especially when discussing Novo who runs their own engine room, steers their own ship, and navigates a safer sea.

DeZwarteRidder 18 maart 2021 12:20

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Ivanhoe raises $575m in convertible notes financing

18th March 2021

By: Creamer Media Reporter

Canadian miner Ivanhoe Mines has received “tremendous” interest from North American and European institutional investors in its convertible notes financing and has raised $575-million in the oversubscribed placement.

The company, which is developing mines in South Africa and the Democratic Republic of Congo, on Wednesday closed the private placement offering of $575-million aggregate principal amount of 2.50% convertible senior notes due 2026.

“The overwhelmingly positive response to this financing reflects the quality of our mining and exploration assets, our industry-leading ESG initiatives, and the strength of our operational and exploration teams,” said cochairperson Robert Friedland in a statement.

The company intends to use the net proceeds from the offering for general corporate purposes and it may use proceeds to accelerate planned expansions at its assets.

“We believe that the convertible notes, with a coupon rate of 2.50%, represent an extremely attractive form of financing to further advance our growth projects, which each have compelling projected rates of return.

“We also have the option of repaying the convertible notes in cash, rather than shares,” stated Friedland.

DeZwarteRidder 29 maart 2021 15:44

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www.ivanhoemines.com/site/assets/file...

DeZwarteRidder 5 april 2021 11:45

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Schaarse metalen peperduur op jachtterrein van wereldmachten

Door Theo Besteman
Updated 3 min geleden
1 uur geleden in FINANCIEEL

Amsterdam - Productie van elektrische auto’s, windmolens en smarthones krijgt hinder van toenemende schaarste aan metalen en mineralen. Die zijn nodig voor de ’groene revolutie’, die in hoog tempo de schaarse metalen opvreet. Wereldmachten trijden om de metalen. Beleggingen in grondstoffen als rhodium en vanadium schieten naar records.

„Schaarse metalen zijn het nieuwe goud geworden. Ik adviseer beleggers daar hun geld in te steken nu er een geopolitieke strijd om zulke metalen ontstaat en de prijzen stijgen”, zegt goudexpert Marino Pieterse.

De prijs van rhodium, een grondstof gebruikt om katalysatoren van auto’s beter te maken, steeg dit jaar alleen al met 75% en sinds de start van de coronacrisis met 200%. Het aantal politiemeldingen van door criminelen onder auto’s afgezaagde katalysatoren loopt op. Dankzij een recordprijs duiken dieven overal op het metaal dat aan recyclers wordt aangeboden.

Prijzen van grondstoffen als lithium, kobalt, nikkel en grafiet stijgen ook, deze metalen vormen de harde kern van batterijen voor elektrische auto’s en straalmotoren. Er is wereldwijd wel voorraad, maar het duurt bij nieuwe mijnen jaren om ze te kunnen winnen.

Kinderarbeid

En kobalt komt voor 80% uit Congo, waar de winning en transport van het ’blauwe goud’ worden bedreigd door militair geweld. Veel pensioenfondsen kunnen er vanwege hun ethische beleggingsbeleid niet investeren in nieuwe mijnbouw, omdat de werkomstandigheden er te slecht zijn en duizenden kinderen tegen internationale afspraken het metaal blijven opdiepen.

PwC, een consultant voor bedrijven, waarschuwt bedrijfsdirecties in autobouw, defensie en chemische industrie al jaren voor de ’tikkende tijdbom’. Met een groeiende bevolking, die dezelfde welvaart opeist, overtreft de vraag naar zeldzame metalen het aanbod en zullen bedrijven tekorten moeten opvangen.

Edelmetaal palladium, gebruikt in elektronica, moderne horloges, juwelen en tandartsinstrumenten, stijgt voor het derde jaar op rij in prijs. Het komt met koper en nikkel naar boven in mijnen en het is voor beleggers een van de best presterende metaalbeleggingen.

Kooplijstjes

De vraag naar de metalen voor batterijauto’s zal volgens ING Research voorlopig alleen maar groeien. De milieumaatregelen die in het klimaatakkoord van Parijs zijn aangescherpt, betekenen dat vervuilende productie met ijzererts, staal en kolen wordt afgebouwd.

Beleggers lopen de inkooplijstjes van zeldzame metalen af die steeds gewilder gaan worden. Ze kijken ook al naar gallium, indium en platina-varianten. Op de lijsten met ’kritische’ metalen staat ook het donkergrijze beryllium, dat vanwege zijn kracht en beperkte gewicht gewild is in lucht- en ruimtevaart. Bijvoorbeeld voor de volgende generaties communicatiesatellieten.

Tantaal is extreem bestendig tegen corosie van metalen en wordt daarom gebruikt in containers voor vloeibare metalen, geëmailleerde vaten en straalmotoren. Fluorspar is ook gewild, het zit in cement, glas en ijzer en lithium maakt batterijen energiezuiniger.

Rhodium wordt schaarser: het kan in combinatie met platina en andere metalen de uitstoot van auto’s sterk beperken. Niet zo bekend, maar elektrische tandenborstels kunnen alleen dankzij kleine magneten werkend met schaarse metalen als dysprosium, boron en neodymnium de tienduizenden draaibewegingen maken. Iedereen rent voor zulke metalen naar dezelfde mijnen.

Koperrevolutie

President Biden kondigde vorige week een investeringsplan voor de Amerikaanse infrastructuur aan dat $2250 miljard beslaat. Heel het wegennetwerk gaat op de schop, er verrijzen duizenden windmolens en laadpalensystemen voor batterijauto’s. Ook voor het wagenpark van het Witte Huis. Prijzen van tarmacadam voor wegen, kobolt en lithium lopen op vanwege de verwachte vraag van toeleveranciers.

Minder schaars, maar zeer gewild voor batterijauto’s en bekabeling van duizenden windmolens is koper, veel gebruikt in bouwwerken. Europa komt na de Verenigde Staten uit de coronacrisis en zal ook meer van de koper en zeldzame stoffen gaan inkopen voor zijn industrie en batterijauto’s.

Beide regio’s merken dat China, dat eerder uit de coronalockdowns is gekomen, sinds april vorig jaar al aan het opkopen is. Voorraden worden weggekaapt, schaarse metalen worden inzet van een politieke machtsstrijd. China heeft daarin volgens hoogleraar Rob de Wijk in zijn studie De Nieuwe Wereldorde strategisch het best voorgesorteerd.

Sinds tien jaar beperkt China al zijn eigen export van zeldzame metalen, die nodig zijn voor lichtgewichtmetalen voor vliegtuigen en vleugels van windmolens.

China is zelf niet de grootste mijnbouwer voor batterijmetalen, maar wel wordt daar 80% verwerkt in zijn enorme industrie, aldus onderzoeker Benchmark Mineral Intelligence.

Machtsstrijd

Het Chinese Bureau van Staatsreserves heeft recent volgens marktanalisten bij de zeer lage coronacrisisprijzen fors meer opgekocht dan gemiddeld in afgelopen jaren. Aan koper zelfs een derde meer. Koperprijzen zijn sinds maart vorig jaar verdubbeld tot boven $9000 per ton.

Handelshuis Trafigura, een grote koperhandelaar, voorziet een stijging van de koperprijs naar $15.000. Zijn econoom Graeme Train wijt dat aan een historisch ongekende vergroting van de vraag.

PwC, consultant voor bedrijven, waarschuwt bedrijfsdirecties in autobouw, defensie en chemische industrie al jaren voor de ’tikkende tijdbom.” Met een groeiende bevolking, die dezelfde welvaart opeist, overtreft de vraag naar zeldzame metalen het aanbod.

Optimisme

Chemisch ingenieur Theo Henckens zegt bij een brede studie naar deze grondstoffen grote beperkingen te voorzien voor de beschikbaarheid voor toekomstige generaties als overheden en consumenten niet ingrijpen.

„Zonder vergaande besparingsmaatregelen zullen ook de toekomstige burgers van rijke landen een relatief beperkte tijd kunnen blijven genieten van de niveaus van de meest schaarse minerale hulpbronnen waaraan ze zijn gewend zijn”, stelt hij.

„Maar ik kijk er ook optimistisch naar”, zegt Henckens, eerder werkzaam bij ingenieursbureau DHV en de inspectie Milieuhygiëne van het ministerie van Milieu. De overheid, bedrijven en burgers kunnen nog ingrijpen.

Henckens: „Als er voldoende besparingsmaatregelen worden genomen, is het mogelijk om het wereldwijde niveau van grondstoffen met een factor vier te laten stijgen tot het niveau waaraan bewoners van de rijkste landen nu gewend zijn.”

Recyclen profijtelijk

Met stevige besparingsmaatregelen kan de periode dat zulke grondstoffen nog beschikbaar zijn „voor een redelijke prijs” ook met gemiddeld een factor vier worden verlengd, stelt Henckens.

In de grondstoffenwereld spelen bedrijven op de schaarste in. AMG, de in Amsterdam genoteerde leverancier van bijzondere metalen voor vliegtuigbouw en windenergiebedrijven, startte eind 2019 met zijn oude partner Shell een joint-venture voor recycling van zware katalysatoren uit bijvoorbeeld de olie-industrie.

Het initiatief raakt op stoom. AMG kon olieproducenten Saoedi-Arabië en China als klanten strikken. Hun jachtterrein: uit de grote katalysatoren is nog erg veel van het schaarser wordende vanadium terug te winnen.

XTrail 5 april 2021 12:10

0

In Ivanhoe Mines hebben de Chinezen de bovenhand, dat is niet zonder reden, veelbelovende lopende projecten

fiesta 5 april 2021 12:22

0

quote:
XTrail schreef op 5 april 2021 12:10:
In Ivanhoe Mines hebben de Chinezen de bovenhand, dat is niet zonder reden, veelbelovende lopende projecten

Of dat op termijn zo goed is voor beleggers?

XTrail 5 april 2021 12:36

0

quote:
fiesta schreef op 5 april 2021 12:22:
[...]
Of dat op termijn zo goed is voor beleggers?

China weet in elk geval waarom. Naast vele andere mijnbouwers heb ik deze toch ook een plaatsje gegeven in de portefeuille.

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