I spoke with Vince yesterday after sending him an email congratulating Arrowhead on the great news and wondering if they might be holding a conference call to discuss next steps. He emailed me back and asked if I had time to talk after market close. When I talked with him, the very first thing he said to me was "so what did you think about the news today?" I was no doubt incredibly impressed, as this should help move the pivotal phase 2/3 trials into a phase 3, and that could easily add $30+ to the stock valuation overnight (so it's no surprise as to why we saw such a big move yesterday).
One thing I asked is about the 4th patient that didn't show polymer reduction, and his response was that liver biopsies tend to be noisy. The data they have is very fresh and they are still in the middle of processing all the data, but they did see improvements across a number of metrics. So my big question was is "what's next with regards to the trials?" While the data are good, they still want to see more of it, as all the data has not been processed yet. They are, however, developing a strategy to move forward with regulators, as they had mentioned in the PR. I had the impression that it's possible that the SEQUOIA study might get revamped into a phase 3, but this is still currently unknown. So I guess we'll just have to wait and see what's next. Vince did mention that this news has invigorated the AAT community, as AAT patients are extra cautious going anywhere now, as they are at really high risk because of the covid virus's ability for lung infection. He believes this news should greatly help in enrollment in their trials.
I mentioned that since this appears to be a material news event validating their AAT drug, that it's surprising that analysts have not been increasing their price targets. Vince told me that analysts typically don't update their models on a "flash note," as the analysts typically need to go through a process that includes a committee review. So I suspect that we might see some price target upgrades in the coming weeks (??), as analysts did not see this news coming and they had no time to prepare.
I also asked Vince if the company is doing any cost/benefit valuation analysis on their cardiovascular drugs with regards to how to best proceed in their next phase of trials, i.e. orphan vs. large indication vs. mix of the two. Vince said that their Chief Commercial Officer, James Hassard, has a team of about 5 people on top of this and that they run extensive and detailed models for all of their drugs. He noted that they have a woman from Amgen that is just amazing in pumping out the most intricate and detailed models, and that the company is on top of having all the information necessary in making the best decisions moving forward. That was great to hear that Arrowhead is fully immersing themselves in having the best information possible when making decisions on the CV drugs.
That's it. Congrats to those who held over the past few weeks.