"is the US economy already heading for a a renewed pull-back ? "
so far, the post-lockdown recovery has been swifter than expected in the US, particularly on the consumption side
Indeed the May and (pre ) June data shows private consumption levels at close to 90% of pre-pandemic level, thus the initial pace of recovery has been quicker, however the resurgent pandemic in the Southern states is leading to a stalling of the recovery,and even signs of pullback in the new pandemic hotspots ( Texas, Florida, California)
Data is patchy , but we are seeing the first signs of this in the Open Table seated dinning data, where dinning first recovered but now is fallen back and fear this will continue through July
Furthermore the May bounce was helped by the stimulus checks sent out accross the US ( even to those who remained in employment ) and some of the consumer discretionary categories giving growth for consumption are now seeing declines again
further pullback wud be an unwelcome surprise
We also see risk of a negative July payroll print, with some of the hospitality workers in the southern states who had returned to work now at risk of renewed furlough.
extra maatregelen zullen door de Trump administratie ingezet worden, want met de aankomende verkiezingen mag de visuele graadmeter van de economie ( de indexen/beurzen) niet onderuit komen, ook al gaat het land gedeeltelijk weer plat.