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[verwijderd] 12 juni 2016 23:19

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Billionaire Battleground: Exact Sciences Inc.
Billionaire investors have been buying and selling millions of shares of Exact Sciences stock recently. Here's a look at the bull and bear case.

Cologuard Kit Sourceexactsciences

IMAGE SOURCE: EXACT SCIENCES.

Every few months the SEC requires billionaire investors to publicly disclose their holdings using a form called a 13F. These filings are filled with intellectual gold and are a great way for individual investors to follow what some of the smartest investors in the world have been buying and selling recently.

One company that has become a battleground stock among billionaires recently is Exact Sciences (NASDAQ:EXAS), a money-losing healthcare company that is focused on noninvasive cancer detection. The company's shares have had an awful year, and are down more than 75% due to slower-than-hoped-for sales of its noninvasive colon cancer detection test, Cologuard.

Several billionaire investors have greatly soured on the company's stock, including Israel Englander, the hedge fund manager of Millennium Management. This fund's recent filing showed that it sold more than 1.7 million shares of Exact Sciences stock.

On the other hand, Exact Sciences' falling share price has also attracted the attention of billionaire buyers, including David Shaw, the founder of D.E. Shaw & Co. Shaw's fund recently added more than 1.3 million shares of the Exact Sciences stock to its portfolio.

So what's going on at Exact Sciences that has left billionaire investors divided on the company's future? Here's the case for, and against, investing in Exact Sciences stock right now.

The bull case
Bulls point out that Cologuard was designed to fix a big problem with colon cancer detection, namely that very few patients actually follow current screening guidelines. Exact Sciences likes to point out that only three out of every 1,000 patients currently adhere to annual fecal blood testing guidelines over a 10-year period, which is a horrifically low rate.

Boxes Sourceexactsciences
IMAGE SOURCE: EXACT SCIENCES.

Exact Sciences Cologuard system has been shown to make huge strides in fixing this problem. Last quarter Cologuard's compliance rate was 69%, a massive improvement. Increasing compliance rates is important since patients stand a much better chance at beating colon cancer if the disease is detected early.

Still, Cologuard sales were slow out of the gate, which is a big reason why the company's stock has tanked. Management believes that Cologuard's lackluster start is caused by a lack of insurance coverage and low awareness among providers.

In order to address these issues, Exact Sciences has been laser-focused on getting more payers on board. The company recently convinced Anthem (NYSE:ANTM) to add Cologuard to its formulary, which is a huge win since Anthem already has nearly 40 million members under its umbrella. That number will also take a giant leap forward later this year if Anthem's pending acquisition of Cigna is closed. The odds look good of that happening since Anthem recently received regulatory clearance in 12 states and from 99% of both Cigna and Anthem's shareholders.

With Anthem signed on it and Cigna joining the picture, Exact Sciences should have an easier time convincing other insurers to follow suit.

To help get the word out about Cologuard, management recently announced an ambitious marketing plan that includes a nationwide television campaign. Early testing showed a doubling of new physicians' prescriptions from TV ads, which hints that this strategy might actually work.

Finally, bulls are banking on the company's ability to expand its technology beyond just colon cancer. Exact Sciences is currently exploring ways to use its technology to detect both pancreatic and lung cancer, and it is also working on a new version of Cologuard that should greatly enhance its margins.

With better coverage on the way and awareness building, management believes that the company will process more than 240,000 Cologuard tests this year and produce $90 million to $100 million in revenue. That's more than double what it produced in 2015.

If the company can deliver on that target and continue to expand into other types of cancer, shares could dramatically rise from here.

The bear case
Of course, while the prospects of amazing growth and margin expansion sound great, the company's bears have plenty of points to make as well.

For one, Cologuard is primarily targeted at seniors, which means that Exact Sciences' pricing will forever hinge on Medicare's reimbursement policies. Given that general healthcare inflation has been out of control for years, policymakers eventually may lean on companies like Exact Sciences to drop prices over time. In that case, the company's long-term profitability may come into question.

Exas Fb
IMAGE SOURCE: EXACT SCIENCES.

Another concern is that while compliance for using Cologuard is much better than traditional methods, it's still far from perfect. After all, a compliance rate of 69% means that almost one out of three patients are ordering the system and then not following through with the actual testing. That represents a cost to the company that is not turning into revenue, which is a huge drag on the company's margins.

Finally, bears point out that the company is going to have to significantly increase its spending in order to fund its marketing plan, which is going to be very costly. While revenue is expected to jump to $90 million to $100 million this year, losses will balloon too. Wall Street is currently estimating that the company will lose about $2 in earnings per share this year, which translates into roughly $190 million. That's a sizable chunk of the company's $262 million cash hoard, and could hint that yet another round of dilution could be on the way.

Looking ahead
With billionaires divided about whether this company is a buy or a sell, the smart play might be to watch its results for another few quarters before deciding which way to lean. The other thing to keep in mind is that the intentions behind billionaires' buys and sells may be very different from yours, and following blindly in their footsteps is never a good idea.

My take: While I think that Cologuard is a fascinating product that offers a great option to patients and providers, I have some big concerns about the company's long-term profitability. For that reason I'm content to keep watching this story unfold from the sidelines.

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[verwijderd] 13 juni 2016 17:47

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ok faire analyse en glas is half vol of half leeg. in ieder geval zal het langer duren

[verwijderd] 14 juni 2016 08:10

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IRVINE, Calif. and HERSTAL, Belgium, June 14, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MDxHealth SA (Euronext: MDXH.BR), announced today that it has secured the first U.S. reimbursement coverage agreement for its SelectMDx(TM) for Prostate Cancer test with America's Choice Provider Network, Inc. (ACPN). ACPN is a national provider network with over 1,700 payers, including insurance carriers, third party administrators, health and welfare funds, employer groups and self-insured health plans, providing coverage to 24 million American lives and 750,000 international lives.

"We are pleased to sign this agreement with ACPN just 3 months after we have launched our SelectMDx test on the U.S. market," said Dr. Jan Groen, CEO of MDxHealth. "Our investment last year into the company's managed care team has already been producing results and we continue to build strong relationships with payors across the country."

globenewswire.com/news-release/2016/0...

[verwijderd] 14 juni 2016 08:28

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Ga je dan ook weer een apart TomTom draadje openen?

[verwijderd] 14 juni 2016 17:13

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With better coverage on the way and awareness building, management believes that the company will process more than 240,000 Cologuard tests this year and produce $90 million to $100 million in revenue.

[verwijderd] 14 juni 2016 17:16

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quote:
inspirator schreef op 14 juni 2016 17:13:
With better coverage on the way and awareness building, management believes that the company will process more than 240,000 Cologuard tests this year and produce $90 million to $100 million in revenue.

Wat zit je nu te bazelen. Dit gaat over Exas.
MDX krijgt wat royalties mooi meegenomen. Hebben ze ook hard nodig.
Maar er is al sprake geweest van ontkoppeling...

[verwijderd] 14 juni 2016 18:04

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quote:
inspirator schreef op 14 juni 2016 08:10:
IRVINE, Calif. and HERSTAL, Belgium, June 14, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MDxHealth SA (Euronext: MDXH.BR), announced today that it has secured the first U.S. reimbursement coverage agreement for its SelectMDx(TM) for Prostate Cancer test with America's Choice Provider Network, Inc. (ACPN). ACPN is a national provider network with over 1,700 payers, including insurance carriers, third party administrators, health and welfare funds, employer groups and self-insured health plans, providing coverage to 24 million American lives and 750,000 international lives.

"We are pleased to sign this agreement with ACPN just 3 months after we have launched our SelectMDx test on the U.S. market," said Dr. Jan Groen, CEO of MDxHealth. "Our investment last year into the company's managed care team has already been producing results and we continue to build strong relationships with payors across the country."

globenewswire.com/news-release/2016/0...

MdxHealth is zich aan het herpakken:

Omzet van hun produkten stijgt explosief.

[verwijderd] 14 juni 2016 18:08

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quote:
inspirator schreef op 14 juni 2016 18:04:
[...]

MdxHealth is zich aan het herpakken:

Omzet van hun produkten stijgt explosief.

Waar baseer je dat op?

[verwijderd] 14 juni 2016 23:33

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MdxHealth spreidt zijn veugels uit over de miljardenmarkt.

Fantastische presentatie vandaag in New York

[verwijderd] 14 juni 2016 23:57

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MDXHealth - Piggybacking On Exact Sciences' Cologuard Success

If the market valuation of Exact Sciences is anywhere close to reflecting future sales of Cologuard, shares of MDXHealth should double, triple or more.
Net present value estimates of only the Cologuard royalty stream for MDXHealth range between EUR 4.57 and EUR 15, while MDXHealth shares are currently at EUR 3.014.

Buying into the Cologuard royalty stream at a discount also gets you MDXHealth's own potential cash cows ConfirmMDX, SelectMDX!and AssureMDX for free.

[verwijderd] 15 juni 2016 07:47

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MDxHealth (R): Grants QIAGEN Rights to MSP Technology for QIAsure Methylation Test for Cervical Cancer Risk

June 15, 2016 01:07 ET | Source: MdxHealth (TM)
IRVINE, Calif. and HERSTAL, Belgium, June 15, 2016 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- MDxHealth SA (Euronext: MDXH.BR), announced today that it has granted a non-exclusive worldwide license for its patented methylation-specific PCR (MSP) technology to QIAGEN for use in its new CE-marked QIAsure assay to determine cervical cancer risk.

Under the terms of the agreement, QIAGEN has licensed the use of MDxHealth's MSP technology, a proprietary DNA-methylation specific PCR methodology, for the development and commercialization of its new diagnostic test which differentiates patients' risk of developing cervical cancer. MDxHealth will receive a signing fee plus royalties from future test sales utilizing this technology.

QIAGEN reported that the QIAsure test is a highly complementary addition to its leading human papilloma virus (HPV) franchise. Women screening positive for HPV, or with abnormal cells identified by cytology, are at increased risk of developing cervical cancer. The QIAsure test is the next logical step to assess this risk. More information about the QIAsure product launch can be found at: QIAGEN launches QIAsure Methylation Test to determine cervical cancer risk.

"We are pleased that our Methylation technology can further support QIAGEN's efforts to improve women's health," stated Dr. Jan Groen, CEO of MDxHealth. "Cervical cancer is the fourth most common cancer in women worldwide, with an estimated 528,000 new cases diagnosed and 266,000 deaths each year, so clearly this is an important test."

About QIAGEN

QIAGEN N.V., a Netherlands-based holding company, is the leading global provider of Sample to Insight solutions to transform biological materials into valuable molecular insights. QIAGEN sample technologies isolate and process DNA, RNA and proteins from blood, tissue and other materials. Assay technologies make these biomolecules visible and ready for analysis. Bioinformatics software and knowledge bases interpret data to report relevant, actionable insights. Automation solutions tie these together in seamless and cost-effective molecular testing workflows. QIAGEN provides these workflows to more than 500,000 customers around the world in Molecular Diagnostics (human healthcare), Applied Testing (forensics, veterinary testing and food safety), Pharma (pharmaceutical and biotechnology companies) and Academia (life sciences research). As of March 31, 2016, QIAGEN employed approximately 4,600 people in over 35 locations worldwide. Further information can be found at www.qiagen.com.

About MDxHealth

MDxHealth is a multinational healthcare company that provides actionable molecular diagnostic information to personalize the diagnosis and treatment of cancer. The company's tests are based on proprietary gene methylation (epigenetic) and other molecular technologies and assist physicians with the diagnosis of cancer, prognosis of recurrence risk, and prediction of response to a specific therapy. For more information, visit mdxhealth.com and follow us on Twitter at: twitter.com/mdxhealth.

[verwijderd] 15 juni 2016 08:43

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stocktwits.com/symbol/EXAS

limomilo 15 juni 2016 10:30

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ik vraag me af wat onze adviseur Lorteenhoop ervan vindt. Als hij ook positief is vergroot ik mijn positie.

[verwijderd] 15 juni 2016 11:45

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Zeer goed nieuws en Qiagen is een zeer groet speler.

[verwijderd] 15 juni 2016 11:50

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quote:
limomilo schreef op 15 juni 2016 10:30:
ik vraag me af wat onze adviseur Lorteenhoop ervan vindt. Als hij ook positief is vergroot ik mijn positie.

Lordopeenhoop is meer voor de downswing....

www.youtube.com/watch?v=tdXLfUJdae0

Bahassie 15 juni 2016 12:10

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Teveel en onnodig veel naar beneden gegaan de afgelopen weken. Lord heeft daardoor wel gelijk gekregen, helaas. Maar goed, zijn visie deelt hij niet of hij werkt voor MdX en weet meer (lijkt me niet), of hij werkt voor de concurrent, of hij houdt ervan mensen te irriteren en ligt elke keer weer dubbel als we hem om zijn advies vragen.

[verwijderd] 15 juni 2016 17:01

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21 juni overname MdxHealth door Exact Sciences een feit

Exact Sciences: What the Heck is Going On?

By Ben Levisohn

Yesterday, shares of Exact Sciences (EXAS) surged for no reason at all. Today, they’re up another 7%–and we now know the reason for the stock’s big move. Canaccord Genuity’s Mark Massaro and Mary Kate Gorman explain:

We reiterate our BUY rating on Exact Sciences and raise our PT to $12 from $9. Around 10 pm ET or so on Tuesday (June 14), the USPSTF uploaded a 12-page recommendation statement that we believe bodes well for Exact Sciences. In the document, the USPSTF removed the words “recommended” and “alternative” and reiterated that “colorectal cancer screening” is an A rating, and clearly removed any hierarchy of test modalities. We spoke late last night with management, which is declining comment until the USPSTF formally announces these statements (press release) or when JAMA publishes these findings (June 21 on the Task Force document). We’ll let events play out over the next few days before we update out-year revenue estimates. Our raised PT to $12 now uses a 6.0x multiple on our unchanged 2018 revenue estimate of $250M, discounted back to the present at a 15% discount rate. Our view is that this is long-awaited great news for Exact Sciences, a decision we believe will trigger commercial payor mandates, notably from UnitedHealth Group (UNH) and Aetna (AET), to name two. The next key controversy likely turns to at what price the large payors will pay for Cologuard.

Remember, shares of Exact Sciences lost nearly half their value back in October after it was originally designated an “alternative.”

[verwijderd] 15 juni 2016 17:06

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Het wordt een beetje een een grijsgedraaide plaat maar waar lees jij nu dat Exas MDX gaat overnemen?

[verwijderd] 15 juni 2016 23:21

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New Colorectal Cancer Screening Guidelines From USPSTF May Benefit Exact Sciences' Cologuard

Said very clearly, this clarification places Cologuard on par with other screening strategies and makes it an 'A' rated test for individuals age 50-75," Weinstein added. "We expect this will have material impact on reimbursement discussions as the Affordable Care Act requires all 'A' rated screening tests to be covered without co-pay. In addition, we believe this will place Cologuard into quality metrics like HEDIS and Star, which should also push insurance coverage across the goal line."

www.genomeweb.com/molecular-diagnosti...

[verwijderd] 16 juni 2016 08:28

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Short squeeze MdxHealth aanstaande

MDxHealth Announces European Urology Editorial Supporting SelectMDx Use in Detecting Prostate Cancer
IRVINE, CA, and HERSTAL, BELGIUM - June 16, 2016 - MDxHealth SA (Euronext: MDXH.BR), announced today the publication of an editorial in the prestigious journal European Urology that supports the integration of SelectMDxTM liquid biopsy test results into established clinical algorithms to improve the detection of high-risk prostate cancer (PCa) [Integrating Molecular Profiling of Liquid Biopsy Samples with a Calculator Algorithm To Detect High-risk Prostate Cancer, Gardiner et al, European Urology (2016)].

Vertraagd	1 jan 0001
Koers	0,000
Verschil	0,000 (0,00%)
Hoog	0,000
Laag	0,000
Volume	0
Volume gemiddeld	0
Volume gisteren	0

23:31	Beursupdate: AEX op Wall Street	1
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