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AMG en vanadium

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Umi1 schreef op 30 apr 2019 om 16:39:

"Evraz’s Q1 2019 Vanadium Product Sales Fall on Weak Automotive, Steelmaking Demand"

Evraz’s Q1 2019 Vanadium Product Sales Fall on Weak Automotive, Steelmaking Demand

Russian steel and vanadium producer Evraz’s sales of final vanadium products fell by 5.3% quarter-on-quarter in the first quarter of 2019 to 2.52 million tonnes, the company said in a trading update on Monday April 29.This was down from 2.66 million tonnes of pure vanadium produced in the fourth quarter of 2018, and down by 19% year-on-year from the first quarter of 2018, when Evraz produced 3.11 million tonnes.

The fall in sales was mainly due to a sharp decline in demand from the automotive industry and high stock levels at steelmakers, which were accumulated during a period of sharp ferro-vanadium price increases, Evraz said.

“Lower car production and sales globally had a negative effect on demand for ferro-vanadium in the first quarter of the year,” Alexander Erenburg, the head of the vanadium division at Evraz, said during a conference call on April 29.

Weaker demand from the steel industry outside China, followed by heavy destocking at steelmakers, which was triggered by falling prices for ferro-vanadium, negatively affected first-quarter sales, Evraz added.

“Ferro-vanadium prices decreased by around $40 per tonne quarter on quarter, mostly due to the elevated price base in the fourth quarter of 2018, driven by speculations around new Chinese rebar standards,” Erenburg said.

Fastmarkets last assessed the price of ferro-vanadium, 78% min, free delivered duty-paid in Europe, at $41.50-43.00 per kg on April 26, down by 0.6% from the mid-week assessment of $41.50-43.50 per kg, itself down from from $43.50-44.50 per kg previously.

Ferro-vanadium prices have fallen by more than 60% from the all-time highs of $126-128 per kg reached last year. The price was now at its lowest level since November 2017, according to Fastmarkets’ historical data.

Ferro-vanadium prices in the Chinese and European markets both hit all-time highs last year, in part due to an expected increase in demand arising from the implementation of new rebar manufacturing standards in China, which came into effect on November 1, 2018.

But weaker-than-expected demand from steel mills in China and the increased use of ferro-niobium as a substitute for ferro-vanadium in that country have been blamed for the steep decline in the ferro-vanadium market.

Evraz now expected that “demand in the mid-term [will] improve as ferro-vanadium prices are back at reasonable level”, Erenburg said, although that will depend on further implementation of the rebar standard in China, he added.

Meanwhile, Evraz’s gross vanadium slag production increased by 1.6% to 4.5 million tonnes of pure vanadium in the first quarter of the year, up from 4.4 million tonnes in the previous quarter and up by 10.6% from 4 million tonnes from the first quarter of 2018.

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Bushveld Minerals*
Vanchem acquisition opens door to 10,000t pa
The proposed US$68m cash acquisition of Vanchem opens a capital efficient route to Bushveld’s stated goal of growing to a 10,000t pa low-cost primary producer of vanadium while providing an expeditious development path for its substantial Mokopane greenfield resource. Moreover, whilst diversifying Bushveld’s operational base (lowering its risk profile), Vanchem will widen the group’s vanadium product mix and offers a platform to potentially develop vanadium electrolyte manufacturing capacity in-house, supporting Bushveld’s ambitions in the redox-flow battery space. We believe the deal will prove earnings and valuation accretive – the target assets generated pre-tax profit on recommencing production last year, and the US$133m gross cost of acquisition and subsequent refurbishment/development capex is substantially lower than the cUS$300m estimated capex of developing Mokopane as a standalone operation.

? Immediate growth and diversification: Vanchem offers immediate production growth and operational diversification, adding 960t of current annualised output to Bushveld’s c3,000t pa production base at Vametco.

? Capital efficient production expansion: Current operations utilise just one of Vanchem’s three kilns, equating to just 20-25% of the facility’s capacity. Bushveld believes a US45m refurbishment spend over five years could see the entire facility fully operational at a steady-state production rate of 4,200t pa.

? Fast-tracks Mokopane: The proposed acquisition will expedite the development of Bushveld’s Mokopane project (200km north of Vanchem), which over time will become the primary source of feedstock for Vanchem. Transporting an ore concentrate from Mokopane for further beneficiation at Vanchem could reduce the capex to develop Mokopane to just US$20m, versus the US$298m previously estimated to develop it as a standalone operation of not dissimilar scale.

? Diversifies product mix: Vanchem can produce various vanadium oxide concentrates, ferrovanadium (FeV) and vanadium chemicals, adding diversity to Vametco’s Nitrovan product. Its operational flexibility offers potential for future vanadium electrolyte manufacturing without compromising cost efficiency, enhancing Bushveld’s ambitions in the redox-flow battery space.
The proposed transaction is thus consistent with Bushveld’s stated strategy of acquiring low-cost, scalable brownfield assets in South Africa to expedite development of its substantial, and high-grade, resource base. Moreover, with the 4,200t pa potential of an integrated Vanchem-Mokopane added to the phased expansion of Vametco to c5,000t pa, the deal brings Bushveld’s 10,000t pa production goal into sharp focus. The transaction is subject to regulatory approvals, but the majority payment (to be funded from internal cash flows and debt if necessary) and closure is expected no later than 31 October 2019.

Valuation: We await details on opex structure and timing of the planned Vanchem-Mokopane refurbishment/development ahead of incorporating in our forecasts and valuation. However, we believe the acquisition will prove accretive to both, assuming cost structure is not dissimilar to Vametco. Bushveld is trading at an EV of just 3.3x our 2019 consolidated EBITDA estimate (after revising down our near-term V price assumptions for recent market pullback), and our free cash-flow estimate currently yields 18%.

Our current 45p valuation includes just 25% of our NPV estimate of Bushveld’s attributable share of Mokopane. We believe the NPV of an integrated Vanchem-Mokopane operation would likely exceed our current estimate of Mokopane standalone, while the acquisition would also lower development risk.

Given the extreme pricing volatility, the vanadium market ought to be approached with caution. Both ferrovanadium and vanadium pentoxide in China, Europe, and the US are in freefall as the prices mean revert. Vanadium is, and will remain for the foreseeable future, a raw material driven by demand for high strength steel. The vanadium redox battery (VRB) is arguably a better battery for grid scale energy storage relative to lithium ion, but given lithium ion’s ubiquity, relative safety record, and possibility with second life applications, the VRB’s day in the sun may yet be delayed. The VRB model is continuing to evolve and this evolution, coupled with more scale in the future, is crucial for wider VRB adoption.

There's a general sense in the market that vanadium pricing is nearing a bottom, and given general market tightness, I don’t think we’ll see the days of $5/pound vanadium pentoxide for a long, long time. It’s encouraging to see producers such as Largo and Bushveld [LON: BMN] benefiting from strong vanadium pricing along with AMG (AMG) doubling their vanadium production capacity in the US and I would expect these companies, along with Chinese producers and Glencore [LON:GLEN] (OTCPK:GLCNF) to maintain their stranglehold on the overall market.

Tom3 schreef op 7 mei 2019 om 17:18:

Dit Roskilartikel van vandaag moet toch wel steun bieden lijkt me:


This ongoing tolerance period is the main factor contributing to falling vanadium prices, although seasonal factors have played a part: little construction takes place in winter in China and thus demand for ferroalloys diminishes. In addition, higher-than-expected substitution of ferrovanadium for ferroniobium in China (caused by high vanadium prices) reduced vanadium demand and helped push prices downwards. Ferroniobium imports into China peaked at 7kt in January 2019 but fell back in February and March.

With the peak season for Chinese construction still ahead, it remains possible that vanadium prices will stabilise or even begin to increase as the year progresses. Roskill maintains that any sign of strict implementation of new rebar standards will result in higher vanadium demand and thus higher prices. But as ever, vanadium prices are likely to be volatile.
Avantium verlengt samenwerking met Shell Catalysts

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) Shell Catalysts & Technologies heeft zijn samenwerking met Avantium voor vier jaar verlengd. Dat maakte het beursgenoteerde bedrijf woensdag nabeurs bekend, zonder financiële details te vermelden.

Avantium test voor het Shell-onderdeel katalisatoren met behulp van zijn technologische platform Flowrence. Het testprogramma bestudeert onder andere de deactivatie van katalisatoren in de laboratoria van Avantium in Amsterdam.

"We zijn trots om te blijven werken met een leider in de industrie zoals Shell Catalysts & Technologies", stelde directeur Steven Oliver van Avantium Catalysis.

Avantium boekte in maart een operationeel verlies van 24 miljoen euro op een omzet van 11 miljoen euro. Het aandeel sloot woensdag 0,4 procent lager op 2,56 euro.

Door: ABM Financial News.
De vanadiumprijs blijft maar duikelen. Volgens mij alleen deze week al 5 tot 10 procent eraf.

RP91 schreef op 10 mei 2019 om 08:58:

De vanadiumprijs blijft maar duikelen. Volgens mij alleen deze week al 5 tot 10 procent eraf.

Ik weet niet waar jij je vanadium inkopen doet. Maar de laatste week stabiel in Amerika. en 5% de afgelopen maand min 5.
Niveau'tje 2017/2018. Niks mis mee lijkt me.

BudFoXx schreef op 18 mei 2019 om 10:24:


Vanadium spot prices were significantly lower in April.

Highlights for the month include:

CRU: Vanadium prices face a turbulent 2019.
AMG buyback program for up to 3.0 million shares (or up to €100 million).
Energy Fuels' Mill is currently producing the highest-purity V2O5 in its history, averaging approximately 99.6% V2O5.
Largo Resources Q1 2019 V2O5 production of 2,099 tonnes, a 5% decrease from Q1 2018.
Ferro-Alloy Resources was admitted to trading on the Main Market of the London Stock exchange in March 2019.
Australian Vanadium - Drilling has confirmed geological model, proved depth extension and deposit thickness, supporting further resource upgrades.
Technology Metals Australia - Resource upgrade - Global high grade mineral resource estimate increased by 29% to an outstanding 71.2mt at 1.1% V2O5.
Tando Resources - Resource upgrade - High-grade component now stands at a huge 169Mt at 1.07% V2O5, the largest +1% V2O5 resource in the world. The total JORC Mineral Resource is now 612Mt at 0.78% V2O5 Indicated and Inferred.
Vanadium Corp's Electrochem starts commercial production of vanadium battery electrolyte in Canada.
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