Van SallyWoofs op HC:
DFS comments and impressions...(composed after conference call)...
BFS...there were no additional bells and whistles like off-takes or financing; just a straight-up conventional BFS...a "platform for accelerating" off-takes and financing.
CAPEX...as expected, $1.33 bil + 165 mil contingency = $1.5 billion.
NPV8...$1.4 billion USD
C1s...$4.68 nickel as co-product, negative ($1.46) by-product. Worse on the gross but as predicted, negative C1s on a by-product basis. Lowest quartile costs.
PRICE ASSUMPTIONS...surprised at the higher cobalt prices...but conservative nickel prices, and interesting that they put their toe in the water with 10 tpa scandium included.
CONSTRUCTION/EPC...it looks to me like the main problem is a dogfight between SNC-Lavallin and the unnamed Chinese contractor (likely CITIC) to get the job.
TIMETABLE...the construction-EPC has put the timetable out by 90 days; FID and groundbreaking into early 2019 and first ore to mill Q1 2021.
OFFTAKE..."strong interest" from many parties.
DEBT vs EQUITY...a strategic equity partner is possible, but they will have to bring something substantial to the table, like off-take. They can get all bank financing if they want it.
The ann mentions a debt facility.
**
Secondary observations:
--The ann mentions "modularization" and advance fabrication as possible avenues for cutting capex.
--Also the platinum is not included, last time I thought they had $1 billion in the ground. Did not think it was important enough to ask in the conference call, but I will ask IR about it.
--The potential exists "to revolutionize the the scandium market with a massive, low-cost source of supply in a stable jurisdiction." Chinalco, Airbus, and UAC all mentioned.
--Cash flow positive in 2022.
**
As I write the stock price is off, down to $1.00; market cap is $800 million.
I have no idea why CLQ gets so little recognition for its potential. NPV of 1.4 billion...40 year mine life...$350 mil income per year with huge upsides in income...off-takes coming within months... financing in the bag...the water business...the technological upside..top management.
I will just accumulate more and be patient.