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TegenBeterWetenIn
0
quote:

ff_relativeren schreef op 31 oktober 2021 22:06:



Hoi @ TegenBeterWetenIn, ik heb 2 vragen voor je ;

1. wat is je bronlinkje ? Ik kan er niets over vinden op de website van AMG.
2. hoe zie jij die $200 miljoen "five year revolver" ?

Indien $200 miljoen van de $350 miljoen bijzondere rechten bevat, dan vallen voor mij alle puzzelstukjes in elkaar. Dan moest de beurskoers fors omlaag om die bijzondere rechten aantrekkelijk genoeg te maken, zodat AMG een gunstige herfinanciering krijgt en de uitleners een prachtig toekomstig profijt in handen krijgen.

Met andere woorden ; Een echte opleving van de beurskoers kunnen we pas verwachten in de 2e helft van november, zodra de uitstaande tender gesloten wordt.

@ allen, reacties zijn me zeer welkom.


Betreft een soort van doorlopend krediet bovenop die 350 mln. Dus meer lenen. Ze denken dat nu nog goedkoper te kunnen doen (dan die 300bp).
DeZwarteRidder
0
quote:

ff_relativeren schreef op 31 oktober 2021 22:06:



Hoi @ TegenBeterWetenIn, ik heb 2 vragen voor je ;

1. wat is je bronlinkje ? Ik kan er niets over vinden op de website van AMG.
2. hoe zie jij die $200 miljoen "five year revolver" ?

Indien $200 miljoen van de $350 miljoen bijzondere rechten bevat, dan vallen voor mij alle puzzelstukjes in elkaar. Dan moest de beurskoers fors omlaag om die bijzondere rechten aantrekkelijk genoeg te maken, zodat AMG een gunstige herfinanciering krijgt en de uitleners een prachtig toekomstig profijt in handen krijgen.

Met andere woorden ; Een echte opleving van de beurskoers kunnen we pas verwachten in de 2e helft van november, zodra de uitstaande tender gesloten wordt.

@ allen, reacties zijn me zeer welkom.


Je snapt er weer eens weinig van: het gaat om een totaal bedrag van 550 miljoen en de recente koersdaling heeft niks met de lening te maken, want deze koersdaling werkt eerder nadelig als voordelig.

Op dit moment heeft AMG een revolverkrediet van 170 miljoen.
Hopper58
1
quote:

nieuw begin schreef op 1 november 2021 07:11:


www.afm.nl/nl-nl/professionals/regist...

H Depp van AMG koopt op 24,52 ook weer aandelen bij. Zie bovenstaande link


Nou ik heb er zelf meer gekocht. Helaas niet allemaal aan 24.5 €
ff_relativeren
0
ff_relativeren
2
Dames en Heren, er zijn 3 short meldingen vandaag :

PDT Partners gaat van 0,91% naar 0,75% netto short. ( -/- 0,16 )
Citadel Advisors gaat van 0,98% naar 0,82% netto short. ( -/- 0,16 )

Qube Research & Technologies meldt zich met een netto short positie van 0,52% en snijdt zich in de vingers. Auwwahh voor hullie gullie en zullie. En een beetje leedvermaak van mijn kant.
TegenBeterWetenIn
4
En daar is de verwachte rating herziening.

New York, November 01, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") affirmed AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V.'s ("AMG") B2 corporate family rating ("CFR") and B2-PD probability of default rating ("PDR"). Moody's also assigned a Ba3 rating to AMG's new revolving credit facility ("RCF") maturing in 2026 and the new term loan B ("TLB") maturing in 2028. Additionally, Moody's affirmed a B3 rating of the Ohio Air Quality Development Authority 30-year tax-exempt revenue bonds (State of Ohio Exempt Facilities Revenue Bonds) which are guaranteed by AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V., the parent company of AMG Vanadium LLC. Proceeds from the new RCF and TLB will be used to refinance the existing revolver and TLB, pay for the transaction fees and expenses and for working capital and other general corporate purposes. The Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating is maintained at SGL-2. The ratings outlook is changed to positive from stable.

"The change in the outlook to positive from stable reflects Moody's expectations that AMG's financial performance and credit metrics will strengthen materially in 2022-2023 benefitting from the anticipated completion of the Cambridge II and Spodumene 1+ projects, improving demand for its products and the continuing recovery in the commercial aerospace demand", says Botir Sharipov, the lead analyst for AMG.

Assignments:

..Issuer: AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V.

....Senior Secured Term Loan B, Assigned Ba3 (LGD2)

....Senior Secured Revolving Credit Facility, Assigned Ba3 (LGD2)

Affirmations:

..Issuer: AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V.

.... Corporate Family Rating, Affirmed B2

.... Probability of Default Rating, Affirmed B2-PD

..Issuer: Ohio Air Quality Development Authority

....Gtd Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed B3 (LGD5)

Outlook Actions:

..Issuer: AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V.

....Outlook, Changed To Positive From Stable

RATINGS RATIONALE

AMG's B2 credit rating reflects its currently still high but improving financial leverage, good liquidity, broad geographic and end market diversity. The company has a strong market position with only a few major competitors for most of its critical materials and sells those materials to a number of blue-chip customers with whom it has established long- term relationships. The importance of its products in lightweighting, energy efficiency and carbon emissions reduction should provide for a relatively steady customer demand over the longer term. The rating is also supported Moody's expectations that AMG will preserve its good liquidity position throughout its current growth phase. AMG's rating is constrained by its modest scale versus higher rated manufacturers, increasing exposure to ferrovanadium, high capex and expectations of negative free cash flow in 2022-2023. The company will continue to benefit from the agreement with Glencore for the sale of the FeV from both Cambridge I and II plants that effectively removes the market volume risk and reduces its exposure to the FeV price volatility.

Moody's estimates that AMG will generate about $110 million in Moody's-adjusted EBITDA in 2021 and that leverage will improve to about 9.0x this year, benefitting from the implemented cost reductions, higher prices for most of the products it manufacturers and better end-market demand. Moody's expects that 2022 EBITDA will be in the range of $125-145 million and for 2023 Moody's-adjusted EBITDA to approach $180 million, which will reduce the leverage to about 5x by 2023 year-end. AMG is expected to begin generate positive free cash flow in 2024 after the company completes the construction of the Cambridge II project in the U.S (Q1 2022), Spodumene 1+ project in Brazil (2023) and the battery grade hydroxide plant in Germany (2023).

The positive outlook reflects Moody's view that a favorable demand environment, completion of growth projects and the continuing recovery in the commercial aerospace sector will lead to a material growth in AMG's revenues and EBITDA in 2022-2023 and result in improved credit metrics. The positive outlook also presumes that AMG will carefully manage its liquidity and the company will not experience any significant issues related to its growth projects.

AMG overall faces elevated environmental social and governance risks given the nature of the company's operations which include mining and high heat metallurgical processes and the location of some of its mines and facilities in emerging markets such as China and Brazil. The governance risk is also above average due to the management's high tolerance for elevated leverage. However, the AMG's $120 million equity issuance in April 2021 signifies the company's willingness to balance the interests of both equity and credit stakeholders.

We expect AMG to maintain good liquidity in the next 12-18 months, as reflected in the company's SGL-2 Speculative Grade Liquidity rating. AMG will have no meaningful debt maturities prior to the maturity date of the revolver in 2026 and the term loan B in 2028. As of September 30, 2021, the company had $319 million in cash and cash equivalents, $114 million in restricted cash for the Cambridge II project and $170 million available under its $200 million revolver, which is undrawn but has a reduced borrowing capacity due to the outstanding debt at the Brazilian subsidiary. Moody's expects the revolving facility to remain undrawn over the rating horizon. Moody's also expects the company to have ample headroom under its 3.5x first lien leverage covenant.

The Ba3 rating of the new senior secured revolving credit facility and senior secured term loan B reflects their priority position in the company's capital structure, strong liquidity position and pre-funded nature of the growth projects. The credit facilities are secured by a first priority lien on substantially all of the assets of several of the company's operating subsidiaries and a first priority lien on 100% of the capital stock (limited to 65% of voting stock for foreign subsidiaries) of each subsidiary borrower and each material wholly-owned subsidiary. However, the security package excludes the assets of a number of key foreign subsidiaries that account for about 50-60% of the overall assets of the company. The B3 rating of the tax-exempt unsecured bonds reflects a relatively high proportion of secured debt and the bonds' effective subordination to the secured debt. The bonds are issued by the Ohio Air Quality Development Authority and guaranteed by AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V.
TegenBeterWetenIn
1
«Deel 2»
FACTORS THAT COULD LEAD TO AN UPGRADE OR DOWNGRADE OF THE RATINGS

The ratings upgrade could be considered if the company successfully completes and ramps up the Cambridge II project, and achieves a material improvement in its operating and financial results in 2022-2023. Quantitatively, the ratings could be upgraded if the company is expected to reduce and sustain a leverage ratio below 5.0x, an interest coverage ratio above 2.0x and return to free cash flow generation over the following 12-18 months. However, AMG's moderate scale will limit its upside ratings potential.

Negative rating pressure could develop if the company experiences any significant issues related to its growth projects. Any material operating disruptions, weaker than expected financial and operating performance, or the pursuit of other debt financed growth projects that result in further deterioration of debt protection metrics would negatively impact the company's rating. Quantitatively, the ratings could be downgraded if the leverage is expected to be sustained above 6.0x or the interest coverage ratio sustained below 1.5x. A significant reduction in borrowing availability or liquidity could also result in a downgrade.

Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V., headquartered in Wayne, Pennsylvania, operates through three divisions - Clean Energy Materials, Critical Materials Technologies, and Critical Minerals. The Clean Energy Materials segment produces materials used in energy storage products such as electric vehicle batteries, grid stabilization batteries and semiconductor capacitors. Its Critical Materials Technologies segment designs and produces vacuum furnace equipment and systems, titanium alloys and coatings as well as chrome metal for aerospace, renewable energy and other industrial end-markets. The Critical Minerals segment produces specialty metals and chemicals and other products used in infrastructure, automotive and other industrial applications. The company sells its products to the transportation, infrastructure, energy, and specialty metals & chemicals end markets from production facilities in Germany, the United Kingdom, France, United States, China, Mexico, Brazil and India. The company produced revenues of about $1.1 billion for the twelve months ended September 30, 2021.

Het mannetje van de radio
0
Bedankt voor het delen TegenBeterWetenIn!

Mooi dat een tamelijk objectief instituut de rating omhoog heeft gegooid en aangeeft dat de toekomst voor AMG er heel positief uitziet.
voda
0
07:18
*Berenberg verlaagt koersdoel AMG van 37,00 naar 34,00 euro
07:18
*Berenberg handhaaft koopadvies AMG
voda
1
Beursblik: Berenberg verlaagt koersdoel AMG
Koersdoel naar 34,00 euro.

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) Berenberg heeft dinsdag het koersdoel voor AMG verlaagd van 37,00 naar 34,00 euro, maar handhaafde het koopadvies.

AMG boekte in het derde kwartaal een EBITDA van 33,1 miljoen dollar, hetgeen 6 procent onder de consensusverwachtingen was. Ook de outlook voor 2022 van een EBITDA van meer dan 150 miljoen dollar noemde Berenberg conservatief.

"De onzekerheid in het huidige klimaat, met verstoringen in de aanvoerketen en vertragingen in het voorziene herstel, leiden tot de nodige uitdagingen voor AMG", aldus analist Andreas Markou, die daarop zijn EBITDA-taxaties verlaagde voor zowel 2022 als 2023, met respectievelijk 8 en 10 procent. Als gevolg kwam Berenberg tot het lagere koersdoel.

Ondanks de uitdagingen op korte termijn, werd het koopadvies gehandhaafd. De analist wees op de hoge groei, de aantrekkelijke waardering en het ondergewaardeerde duurzaamheidsaspect.

Het aandeel AMG sloot maandag op 25,66 euro.

Door: ABM Financial News.

info@abmfn.nl

Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999
Hopper58
0
quote:

voda schreef op 2 november 2021 07:37:


Beursblik: Berenberg verlaagt koersdoel AMG
Koersdoel naar 34,00 euro.

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) Berenberg heeft dinsdag het koersdoel voor AMG verlaagd van 37,00 naar 34,00 euro, maar handhaafde het koopadvies.

AMG boekte in het derde kwartaal een EBITDA van 33,1 miljoen dollar, hetgeen 6 procent onder de consensusverwachtingen was. Ook de outlook voor 2022 van een EBITDA van meer dan 150 miljoen dollar noemde Berenberg conservatief.

"De onzekerheid in het huidige klimaat, met verstoringen in de aanvoerketen en vertragingen in het voorziene herstel, leiden tot de nodige uitdagingen voor AMG", aldus analist Andreas Markou, die daarop zijn EBITDA-taxaties verlaagde voor zowel 2022 als 2023, met respectievelijk 8 en 10 procent. Als gevolg kwam Berenberg tot het lagere koersdoel.

Ondanks de uitdagingen op korte termijn, werd het koopadvies gehandhaafd. De analist wees op de hoge groei, de aantrekkelijke waardering en het ondergewaardeerde duurzaamheidsaspect.

Het aandeel AMG sloot maandag op 25,66 euro.

Door: ABM Financial News.

info@abmfn.nl

Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999


Als je dit bekijkt in het licht van de conf. call is die verlaging wel gezeik: AMG kon alle extra kosten 100 % doorrekenen maar houdt eraan toch te waarschuwen volgens het voorzichtiheidsprincipe. En 150 € EBIT is inderdaad zeer conservatief, gebaseerd op lage prijsaannames.

Dus AMG is goed gevorderd op alle domeinen en krijgt toch een adviesverlaging.
ff_relativeren
1
shorter Societe Generale gaat van 2,55% rechtstreeks en 2,73% middellijke bruto short positie ( www.afm.nl/nl-nl/professionals/regist... )
naar een 2,75% rechtstreeks en 2,16% middellijke bruto short positie in AMG ( www.afm.nl/nl-nl/professionals/regist... ).
geldmaker
0
quote:

TegenBeterWetenIn schreef op 2 november 2021 06:44:


En daar is de verwachte rating herziening.

New York, November 01, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") affirmed AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V.'s ("AMG") B2 corporate family rating ("CFR") and B2-PD probability of default rating ("PDR"). Moody's also assigned a Ba3 rating to AMG's new revolving credit facility ("RCF") maturing in 2026 and the new term loan B ("TLB") maturing in 2028. Additionally, Moody's affirmed a B3 rating of the Ohio Air Quality Development Authority 30-year tax-exempt revenue bonds (State of Ohio Exempt Facilities Revenue Bonds) which are guaranteed by AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V., the parent company of AMG Vanadium LLC. Proceeds from the new RCF and TLB will be used to refinance the existing revolver and TLB, pay for the transaction fees and expenses and for working capital and other general corporate purposes. The Speculative Grade Liquidity Rating is maintained at SGL-2. The ratings outlook is changed to positive from stable.

"The change in the outlook to positive from stable reflects Moody's expectations that AMG's financial performance and credit metrics will strengthen materially in 2022-2023 benefitting from the anticipated completion of the Cambridge II and Spodumene 1+ projects, improving demand for its products and the continuing recovery in the commercial aerospace demand", says Botir Sharipov, the lead analyst for AMG.

Assignments:

..Issuer: AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V.

....Senior Secured Term Loan B, Assigned Ba3 (LGD2)

....Senior Secured Revolving Credit Facility, Assigned Ba3 (LGD2)

Affirmations:

..Issuer: AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V.

.... Corporate Family Rating, Affirmed B2

.... Probability of Default Rating, Affirmed B2-PD

..Issuer: Ohio Air Quality Development Authority

....Gtd Senior Unsecured Revenue Bonds, Affirmed B3 (LGD5)

Outlook Actions:

..Issuer: AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V.

....Outlook, Changed To Positive From Stable

RATINGS RATIONALE

AMG's B2 credit rating reflects its currently still high but improving financial leverage, good liquidity, broad geographic and end market diversity. The company has a strong market position with only a few major competitors for most of its critical materials and sells those materials to a number of blue-chip customers with whom it has established long- term relationships. The importance of its products in lightweighting, energy efficiency and carbon emissions reduction should provide for a relatively steady customer demand over the longer term. The rating is also supported Moody's expectations that AMG will preserve its good liquidity position throughout its current growth phase. AMG's rating is constrained by its modest scale versus higher rated manufacturers, increasing exposure to ferrovanadium, high capex and expectations of negative free cash flow in 2022-2023. The company will continue to benefit from the agreement with Glencore for the sale of the FeV from both Cambridge I and II plants that effectively removes the market volume risk and reduces its exposure to the FeV price volatility.

Moody's estimates that AMG will generate about $110 million in Moody's-adjusted EBITDA in 2021 and that leverage will improve to about 9.0x this year, benefitting from the implemented cost reductions, higher prices for most of the products it manufacturers and better end-market demand. Moody's expects that 2022 EBITDA will be in the range of $125-145 million and for 2023 Moody's-adjusted EBITDA to approach $180 million, which will reduce the leverage to about 5x by 2023 year-end. AMG is expected to begin generate positive free cash flow in 2024 after the company completes the construction of the Cambridge II project in the U.S (Q1 2022), Spodumene 1+ project in Brazil (2023) and the battery grade hydroxide plant in Germany (2023).

The positive outlook reflects Moody's view that a favorable demand environment, completion of growth projects and the continuing recovery in the commercial aerospace sector will lead to a material growth in AMG's revenues and EBITDA in 2022-2023 and result in improved credit metrics. The positive outlook also presumes that AMG will carefully manage its liquidity and the company will not experience any significant issues related to its growth projects.

AMG overall faces elevated environmental social and governance risks given the nature of the company's operations which include mining and high heat metallurgical processes and the location of some of its mines and facilities in emerging markets such as China and Brazil. The governance risk is also above average due to the management's high tolerance for elevated leverage. However, the AMG's $120 million equity issuance in April 2021 signifies the company's willingness to balance the interests of both equity and credit stakeholders.

We expect AMG to maintain good liquidity in the next 12-18 months, as reflected in the company's SGL-2 Speculative Grade Liquidity rating. AMG will have no meaningful debt maturities prior to the maturity date of the revolver in 2026 and the term loan B in 2028. As of September 30, 2021, the company had $319 million in cash and cash equivalents, $114 million in restricted cash for the Cambridge II project and $170 million available under its $200 million revolver, which is undrawn but has a reduced borrowing capacity due to the outstanding debt at the Brazilian subsidiary. Moody's expects the revolving facility to remain undrawn over the rating horizon. Moody's also expects the company to have ample headroom under its 3.5x first lien leverage covenant.

The Ba3 rating of the new senior secured revolving credit facility and senior secured term loan B reflects their priority position in the company's capital structure, strong liquidity position and pre-funded nature of the growth projects. The credit facilities are secured by a first priority lien on substantially all of the assets of several of the company's operating subsidiaries and a first priority lien on 100% of the capital stock (limited to 65% of voting stock for foreign subsidiaries) of each subsidiary borrower and each material wholly-owned subsidiary. However, the security package excludes the assets of a number of key foreign subsidiaries that account for about 50-60% of the overall assets of the company. The B3 rating of the tax-exempt unsecured bonds reflects a relatively high proportion of secured debt and the bonds' effective subordination to the secured debt. The bonds are issued by the Ohio Air Quality Development Authority and guaranteed by AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V.


Zo jammer dat ze er geen koersdoel hebben aangeplakt.
TegenBeterWetenIn
0
quote:

TegenBeterWetenIn schreef op 2 november 2021 06:44:


En daar is de verwachte rating herziening.

New York, November 01, 2021 -- Moody's Investors Service ("Moody's") affirmed AMG Advanced Metallurgical Group N.V.'s ("AMG") B2 corporate family rating ("CFR") and B2-PD probability of default rating ("PDR"). Moody's also assigned a Ba3 rating to AMG's new revolving credit facility ("RCF") maturing in 2026 and the new term loan B ("TLB") maturing in 2028. Additionally, Moody's affirmed a B3 rating [...]



S&P doet het vandaag met een B+ en verandert de outlook naar 'stable' van 'negative'.
Eens kijken hoeveel belangstelling er vandaag was op het inschrijven van de bond. Was dat positief, dan zal AMG dat vast wel zelf van de daken schreeuwen.
ff_relativeren
0
quote:

TegenBeterWetenIn schreef op 2 november 2021 17:19:


[...]

S&P doet het vandaag met een B+ en verandert de outlook naar 'stable' van 'negative'.
Eens kijken hoeveel belangstelling er vandaag was op het inschrijven van de bond. Was dat positief, dan zal AMG dat vast wel zelf van de daken schreeuwen.

Daar zullen we nog 2 weken geduld voor moeten hebben. Ik meen dat de inschrijving pas sluit op de avond van 15 november.
ff_relativeren
0
2 short meldingen vandaag ;

shorter Citadel Advisors gaat van 0,82% naar 0,76% netto short. Op 28 oktober stond Citadel nog op 0,98% netto short. Enkele dagen later noteren we nu 0,76%. Het gaat moeizaam en het kost geduld, maar de shorters lijken op weg naar de uitgang.

shorter Qube Research and Technologies bouwt in 1x af naar 0,36% netto short. Ook deze club is op weg naar de uitgang. Lekkuhhhrrr.
rene66
0
quote:

ff_relativeren schreef op 2 november 2021 18:16:


2 short meldingen vandaag ;

shorter Citadel Advisors gaat van 0,82% naar 0,76% netto short. Op 28 oktober stond Citadel nog op 0,98% netto short. Enkele dagen later noteren we nu 0,76%. Het gaat moeizaam en het kost geduld, maar de shorters lijken op weg naar de uitgang.

shorter Qube Research and Technologies bouwt in 1x af naar 0,36% netto short. Ook deze club is op weg naar de uitgang. Lekkuhhhrrr.
Wat een aparte namen hebben die ratten toch.
ff_relativeren
0
quote:

ff_relativeren schreef op 2 november 2021 09:09:


shorter Societe Generale gaat van 2,55% rechtstreeks en 2,73% middellijke bruto short positie ( www.afm.nl/nl-nl/professionals/regist... )
naar een 2,75% rechtstreeks en 2,16% middellijke bruto short positie in AMG ( www.afm.nl/nl-nl/professionals/regist... ).

En weer een nieuwe melding van Societe Generale ;

Van 2,75% rechtstreeks en 2,16% middellijke bruto short positie in AMG ( www.afm.nl/nl-nl/professionals/regist... )
naar 2,84% rechtstreeks en 2,25% middellijke bruto short positie in AMG ( www.afm.nl/nl-nl/professionals/regist... ).

Netto shorters en Bruto shorters .. een potentieel gevaar voor ieder herstel van de beurskoers. Grrr.
rene66
0
quote:

ff_relativeren schreef op 2 november 2021 22:36:


[...]
En weer een nieuwe melding van Societe Generale ;

Van 2,75% rechtstreeks en 2,16% middellijke bruto short positie in AMG

Netto shorters en Bruto shorters .. een potentieel gevaar voor ieder herstel van de beurskoers. Grrr.
Zolang AMG weigert een notering in de VS te realiseren blijft dit gewoon doorgaan. Hedgefunds en andere partijen hebben geen trek aandelen te kopen waar shorters al jaren spelletjes spelen.


Als de koers ooit weer 35 euro aan tipt denk ik er toch stellig aan om een deel te verkopen. Het herstel zal ondanks alle mooie vooruitzichten zekers nog wel twee jaar duren. Wat dat betreft speelt Heinz het spel wel verkeerd. Het lijkt of de koers van het aandeel voor AMG totaal niet van belang is.
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