Die cijfers zijn bescheiden als we de CEO moeten geloven nav zijn Q3 2018 comments:
We entered the fourth quarter with an optimal inventory position and forward book and expect a significant step-up in performance from the third to the fourth quarter, ending the year on a strong note due to capturing higher prices through our commercial strategy as well as an additional boost to our production volumes.
Firstly, our strategy of limiting forward sales is paying off. We limited sales when prices were at trough levels in the seasonally low summer months and we can therefore capitalize on the higher pricing environment later in the third quarter, with revenues materializing in the fourth. This strategy has helped us in both the United States and in Europe. US Midwest UAN prices are up almost 50% since the beginning of July and CAN prices in Europe almost 30%. Going forward we will continue to limit forward sales.
Secondly, we expect to benefit from higher volumes in the United States in particular. We expect a first full quarter from Natgasoline, which already made a positive impact in the third quarter and has been achieving capacity utilization rates of 103-104% in the past weeks. We also expect IFCo to improve materially quarter on quarter. In July, IFCo took a shutdown opportunity to optimize production to reach higher rates and reduce the scope, cost and time of a planned turnaround in October. This has enabled us to delay the turnaround to 2019 and has accelerated the ramp-up of the ammonia and urea plants, which have now reached unprecedented production levels.
In October, IFCo also received a temporary permit to take its maximum allowable front-end gas feed rate from the previous permit of 110% to 118% of nameplate capacity. The operating team has done an excellent job increasing production rates of the ammonia plant to above 114% in the past weeks. We expect to get the permanent permit amendment by year-end and a further increase to close to 120% in 2019. We expect these higher run-rates to filter through into all downstream units and result in higher cash returns for the plant, including our fast-growing diesel exhaust fluid (DEF) business. We expanded our logistical capabilities for this high-margin product significantly during the quarter by adding new railcars and a newly constructed storage tank, which will enable us to continue to ramp up production rapidly in a market that is growing in excess of 15% per annum in North America.
Our cost position is looking favourable with a low blended average natural gas cost. We have a mix of long-term contracts with fixed gas prices in Egypt and Algeria, and spot prices in Europe and the Unites States. For our spot prices in the US we have hedged, primarily via collars, for more than 50% of our natural gas requirement to offset the risk of potential increases in natural gas prices over the period between now and 2021. The collars have a bandwidth of c.$2.45/mmBtu floors on average and $3.50/mmBtu caps. In addition to those commitments, we selectively do forward fixed price purchases within that bandwidth. For the near term, we have hedged for approximately 70% of our natural gas requirements over the next 12 months. Specifically, we are pleased that IFCo has over 70% of its requirements hedged via fixed price purchases at a price of around $2.40/mmBtu.”