trab33 schreef op 6 oktober 2021 19:26:
vervolg...
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Tailwinds within a recovery in surgical procedures and a growing backlog of elective surgeries, as hospitals have continued to cancel and reschedule elective surgeries due to the pandemic. By Q1 '22, Trevena could be seeing $10M quarterly revenues from OLINVYK, putting it on track to see about $40 million in revenues for FY22 (this could also depend on formulary acceptances and more usage of oliceridine in targeted settings). OLINVYK could feasibly reach $80 million in revenues by year-end 2023, doubling y/y from 2022's projection, with more of the data from the upcoming safety differentiation study and a longer timeline to expand sales teams, distribution networks, formulary approvals, and procedure volumes, factors that can generate such revenue growth.
Is The Market Misvaluing Trevena's Potential?
Medical morphine represents a large, $10+ billion dollar market in the US, with intravenous representing nearly one-quarter; OLINVYK's market opportunities are internally estimated at $1.5 billion for a core focus and $4.5 billion for an expanded focus, at the $100/day average price. Composition of matter patent expiry in 2032 at the earliest gives Trevena over a decade for sales growth.
While Trevena is relatively young in terms of commercialization and revenue generation, OLINVYK looks to provide the right combination of safety, efficacy and utility to garner significant market share in the long-run.
At the moment, shares are trading at approximately a $265 million valuation, 50% lower than in early October, following approval but before commercialization. This looks to signal that the market right now does not place much value on commercialization and future revenue potential.
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link.
seekingalpha.com/article/4426933-trev...