Alle berichten en bezoekverslag (dank, Branco P!) afwegende lijkt Etten Leur wel extreem goedkoop verkocht. Wereldhave stelt zelf ook dat NL dichtbij de bodem is (qua timing lekker moment om te verkopen dus):
From a LifeCentral strategy perspective, we made significant progress during Q1, selling shopping center Etten-Leur. We are happy we have now sold the lower-quality tail of our Dutch portfolio.
Additionally, we are close to finalising the sale of shopping center Koningshoek in Maassluis. Our view is that Dutch capital values for our centers are now bottoming out as a result of an active transaction market and firm pricing.
Verder stelt Wereldhave:
The indirect result for Q1 of € -20m contains the impact from a negative revaluation on our Stadsplein property in Genk, and the book loss on disposals of shopping centers In de Bogaard and Etten-Leur. Amongst other items, the book loss can be explained by a real estate investment market that does not favour fragmented ownership in a challenging local market, the lack of a food anchor, a relatively high level of dependence on a challenging fashion segment and paid parking. We estimated that a transformation into FSCs would result in an unfavourable risk-return for shareholders.
Ok, FSC transformatie is 'unfavourable risk-return' voor de aandeelhouders, maar wellicht dat alternatieven alsnog (veel) meer waarde zou toevoegen dan nu (op de bodem) te verkopen tegen prutprijs. Wereldhave lijkt zich geen alternatief te kunnen veroorloven, omdat de overige FSC transformaties kapitaal nodig hebben en dit moet worden gefinancierd vanuit verkopen.
Verkoopbrochures Frankrijk zijn ook weer uit de kast gehaald:
Our disposal process in France has just been relaunched and we aim to report the first disposals in the second half of this year.
Ik verwacht hier ook weer een aardig moment qua timing verkoop, i.v.m. melding Franse operaties:
From February 1, larger non-food shopping centers of more than 20,000 m² were forced to close. This included all six of our French centers. Essential stores such as hypermarkets and pharmacies remained open. There are ongoing discussions about various government support measures for retail operators on rental payments and service charges to their landlord. Negotiations on rental payments with our tenants are extended, pending the first subsidies payment, clarity on new subsidies for larger tenants and plans for reopening. In Q1, this restricted our rent collection rate to a modest 62%. Eventually, we expect to be able to conclude lower discounts with tenants and speed up cash collection as soon as the government plans with regard to compensation for forced store closures are confirmed. Meanwhile, leasing activity remained strong in Q1 with contracts signed for close to 15,000 m².
Ofwel, Franse huren dalen maar misschien dat deze duikvlucht (discount) iets kan worden beperkt. Positief dat wordt verhuurd, alleen wordt er niets gemeld over niveaus en vertrekkende huurders. Onzekerheid is hoog, verkopen bij onzekerheid betekent geen fraaie opbrengst.
Waarde zal uiteindelijk moeten liggen in het FSC herontwikkel potentieel, maar deze herontwikkeling worden steeds duurder nu dit wordt gefinancierd door matig (tegen hoge yields) verkochte winkelcentra (met stijgende bouwkosten). Yields op NL residential blijven wel dalen (woningmarkt knalt door), hopelijk voor Wereldhave zijn deze rechten nog in eigen handen (niet zoals Tilburg ontwikkeling..).