Hopper58 schreef op 8 augustus 2025 15:53:
Hier een analyse van wat gaat komen in de US waar ik me wel in kan vinden:
‘Stagflation is coming to the U.S.,’ says this economist. Here’s what it means for the dollar, bonds and stocks.
The greenback faces a Wile E. Coyote moment, says Savvas Savouri
By
Jules Rimmer
and
Jamie Chisholm
Last Updated: Aug. 8, 2025 at 9:32?a.m. ET
First Published: Aug. 8, 2025 at 6:56?a.m. ET
“If you look through the front windscreen rather than the rear-view mirror, it’s clear to see stagflation is coming to the U.S.”
That’s the opinion of Savvas Savouri, managing director of QuantMetriks, an economic advisory boutique headquartered in London.
As one might imagine, after a long career spanning academia, several investment banks and an extended stint as the economist at fund management firm, Tosca Capital, Savouri has strong opinions on economies, markets and asset prices, and expresses them unequivocally.
His views on the direction of the U.S. economy are emphatic: inflation is going up, the dollar is going down and the yield curve is steepening.
The inflationary pressures he cites are threefold: a declining dollar (which makes imports more expensive), the restrictions on cheap migrant labor pushing up costs and higher tariffs. That the impact of the tariffs have not manifested itself in data thus far is because they are lagging indicators, he says.
Savouri is adamant that tariffs can only ever be inflationary, as was, he points out, almost all of Trump’s campaign manifesto. He cites especially the pledges to re-shore manufacturing and the One Big Beautiful Bill Act earlier this summer that he regards as “printing money”.
In a note entitled “The Inflationator vs The Powell,” Savouri predicted Powell’s tenure at the Fed may be much shorter than the official departure date of May 2026, owing to the pressure being exerted by the White House.
He draws an analogy with the central bank governors of Japan (Shirakawa in 2013) and Turkey (Agbal in 2021) who were discarded for not cutting rates when the political leaders demanded it. It wasn’t so much ”the central bankers [who] were carried out of the monetary ring,” he quips, “but the respective currencies”.
Given his expectations for Powell, the direction of interest rates and inflation then, it’s perhaps unsurprising Savouri is decidedly bearish on the dollar, describing a Wile E. Coyote moment of turbo-paralysis before it falls victim to gravity.
This may be welcomed by the Trump administration. Indeed, a big call by Savouri is that any meeting between Trump and China’s president Xi Jinping this year will deliver an agreement by Beijing to allow the renminbi to appreciate to help make U.S. goods more competitive. He thinks the buck’s current peg to the Hong Kong dollar will thus be removed.
As he sees it, if the dollar falls in tandem with Fed rate cuts and mounting inflation, then the U.S. Treasury yield curve must steepen (longer-term yields TMUBMUSD30Y 4.857% rising faster relative to short-term yields TMUBMUSD02Y 3.762%) even more sharply than it has already.
Savouri asks, rhetorically, “Who is going to buy long-term U.S. debt because he’s [Trump] just launched a trade war against the traditional buyers?”
His recommendation to investors looking to shield themselves from such adverse movements is to buy TIPS — or Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities — that adjust interest payments to match inflation.
He also thinks these adverse developments could be beneficial to stocks, but not all of them. He argues inflation is good for those stocks — particularly the large caps/big tech that can pass on costs to consumers — that have a good percentage of their earnings overseas in other currencies, and whose balance sheets are strong enough to handle a higher-rate environment.
The S&P 500 might be fine then, but the Russell 2000 or other small/mid caps that operate within America only, or whose balance sheets have a lot of short-maturity debt that will need to be refinanced at punishingly high rates of interest, will struggle, Savouri warns.
www.marketwatch.com/story/stagflation...