View photo
.ManpowerGroup.
Only employers in Taiwan, India, Japan and Hong Kong make more optimistic hiring predictions than their American counterparts. Although most forecasts globally indicate payrolls will grow in the July-September time frame, the results suggest hiring will proceed at an uneven pace and overall hiring momentum will be marginally slower in comparison to the prior quarter and the same time last year. The forecast in Brazil is the weakest since the survey began in Q4 2009, and is also the country's first negative forecast.
U.S. Results Summary
Of the more than 11,000 U.S. employers surveyed, 24 percent anticipate increasing staff levels in Quarter 3 2015, the highest percentage of employers adding staff since Quarter 3 2008. Four percent of employers expect workforce reductions, and 70 percent expect no change in hiring plans. The final 2 percent of employers are undecided about their hiring intentions, resulting in a Net Employment Outlook of +20%. When seasonally adjusted, the Net Employment Outlook becomes +16%.
Quarter
Increase Staff Levels
Decrease Staff Levels
Maintain Staff Levels
Don't Know
Net Employment Outlook
(deseasonalized)
Q3 2015
(current)
24%
4%
70%
2%
16%
Q2 2015
(previous quarter)
22%
4%
72%
2%
16%
Q3 2014
(one year ago)
22%
4%
71%
3%
14%
"U.S. employers have reported the same steady hiring plans throughout 2015, and the third-quarter results are no exception," said ManpowerGroup CEO, Jonas Prising. "We are seeing the signs of a healthy labor market, with the outlook improving compared to 2014. Although there is some variance in optimism across sectors, employers are focused on growth and adding to their workforces at a controlled rate so as not to face the consequences of over-hiring."
U.S. Hiring Plans by Regions, Industry Sectors and Metro Areas/States
Third-quarter research shows U.S. employers' quarter-over-quarter hiring intentions improve slightly in the South and remain unchanged in the Northeast, Midwest and West. Year-over-year, employers in the West are planning for a moderate increase in the hiring pace. Employers in the Northeast, Midwest and South are slightly more confident about staff additions.
Employers have a positive Outlook in 12 of 13 industry sectors included in the survey, with Leisure & Hospitality (28%), Wholesale & Retail Trade (23%), Transportation & Utilities (18%) and Professional & Business Services (18%) employers reporting the strongest hiring intentions. Only Mining employers expect job losses to outpace gains, as indicated by the -5% Net Employment Outlook.
Among the 50 states, employers in North Dakota, Michigan, Virginia and Iowa indicate the strongest Net Employment Outlooks, while Alaska, Illinois, Oklahoma, West Virginia and Arizona project the weakest Outlooks.
Among employers in the 100 largest metropolitan statistical areas, the strongest job prospects are expected in:
Rochester, N.Y.
Nashville, Tenn.
Provo, Utah
San Jose, Calif.
Columbia, S.C.
Seattle
The weakest Outlooks are projected in:
Tucson, Ariz.
Augusta, Ga.
Youngstown, Ohio
Tulsa, Okla.
Bakersfield, Calif.
New Orleans
Global Results Summary
Third-quarter forecasts are mostly positive with employers in 40 of 42 countries and territories expecting to add to their workforces by varying margins over the next three months.
The most optimistic Net Employment Outlooks are reported in Taiwan, India, Japan, Hong Kong and the United States, while the weakest hiring plans are reported in Italy, Brazil, Austria, Spain and Switzerland. The only negative forecasts are reported in Italy and Brazil.
Hiring prospects strengthen in 11 of 42 countries and territories when compared with Q2, but decline in 22. Outlooks improve in 15 countries and territories year-over-year but weaken in 23.
"Employers are seeing few signs of accelerating momentum in the global economy, but, while caution remains widespread, the good news is most are recognizing the need to tentatively add to their workforces to meet demand rather than being stuck in wait-and-see mode. This is contributing to a generally positive hiring outlook," added Prising.
Complete results for the Manpower Employment Outlook Survey are available online. Data specific to the U.S. can be found here, and results for all 42 countries surveyed are available here.
The next Manpower Employment Outlook Survey will be released on September 8, 2015, to report hiring expectations for Quarter 4 2015. Sign-up here to receive e-mail notification when the survey is available each quarter.