Tom3 schreef op 29 oktober 2017 10:25:
Het zal velen ontdaan zijn maar de schrijver van het stuk op Seeking Alpha in 2015 heeft in augustus van dit jaar nog een interessante toevoeging aan het artikel gehangen. Op basis van nieuwe inzichten denkt men nu aan een delisting tegen een koers van Euro 15. Is ook goed voor mijn portefeuille.seekingalpha.com/article/3118556-mdxh...
Author’s reply » Whooa.......this article is very out of date. MDX has subsequently sold their royalty stream from Cologuard.
Times have changed!
MDX has taken cash in lieu of the Cologuard royalty stream. The explanation is complex.
In the meantime MDX Select, the liquid biopsy for early detection of prostate cancer (Pee in a cup vs Biopsy) has been launched.
At this time;The company should purely be valued on the basis of
1. The royalty stream from Labcorp's Glioblastoma diagnostic product.
2. The revenues from MDX Confirm:- MDX's DNA methylation diagnostic of Prostate biopsies and undisputed leader in the space.
3. The growth of MDX Select : liquid biopsy diagnosis of prostate cancer...and again undisputed leader.
4. The prospects for MDX Assure. A liquid biopsy (pee in a cup) for Bladder Cancer.
Its no longer the simple (and highly profitable) arbitrage that it once was. It is now a pure play diagnostic company with some very attractive prospective products in commercial stage launch......so you have to look at it and value it through the lens of a healthcare investor.
Currently, I wait in sidelines to see next couple of quarters earnings but eventually I think MDX gets taken out by a larger Healthcare/Diagnostics company who wants the strong product range......Eur 6 will not come close to tempting the two anchor shareholders to sell. Eur 15 should work. Eur 10 will provoke fierce debate.
To the right acquirer who can leverage the sales force.....this is accretive at all these prices and higher.
BUT...dont buy it as a cheap way to play EXAS any more. IMO, MDX got out of cologuard too early for too little but they felt they had their own fish to fry and wanted to focus on mDX Select.