Geen rechtstreeks nieuws vanuit MDxHealth.. Exact Sciences blijft stijgen. (Nog) geen overname.. maar was het dan dit nieuws dat koers deed stijgen?.. Kan niet anders dan dit op termijn koersondersteunend moet werken voor MDxHealth..
"On Tuesday, the National Committee for Quality Assurance (NCQA) posted a press release
on its website indicating that it would begin an off-cycle review of colon cancer screening.
This review is scheduled to begin July 13 and will last through August 10. We spoke
directly to NCQA, which informed us that the press release had been on the website but
was removed inadvertently and that it would be reposted shortly.
It is clear that the reason for the off-cycle (and somewhat rare) public comment period
was driven by the USPSTF guidelines issued in June. Seeing that colon cancer is such an
important topic as it relates to screening, we believe NCQA decided to reevaluate its
stance on the topic. In the version of the press release that was available earlier today, the
commentary proposed that the NCQA scientific guidelines be updated to align with
recommendations from USPSTF. That would seem to suggest inclusion of Cologuard (as
well as CT Colonography) into the scientific guidelines that form the basis for the quality
metrics that will be finalized in October.
We had expected this to take place as part of a normal cycle review in 2017, but with the
off-cycle review and positive commentary, we now believe that it is likely that Cologuard
will be in HEDIS quality metrics for 2017 rather than for 2018. This appears to be a nice
positive for the company, and if it plays out in the way we expect will be arguably as
important, if not more so, than the USPSTF guidelines announced last month. Payers,
health systems, and physicians will now be incented to recommend Cologuard as part of
their colon cancer screening options without being penalized in the quality metrics. We
believe that this incentive, along with our read of the USPSTF guidelines and statements
from the National Comprehensive Cancer Network and American Cancer Society, should
be enough to move the needle with payers and we believe should set the company up
positively for coverage decisions over the next year or so.
Stock Thoughts
The USPSTF final colon cancer recommendation and what seems to be a positive NCQA
review should put the company on much more solid ground and help achieve greater
uptake of the test. While these events will likely not have an impact on near-term
numbers, our belief is that performance should continue to improve throughout the year
as the company benefits from the TV ad campaigns, the salesforce better hones it
messaging, additional payers are signed up, and there is some benefit from the various
Anthem territories coming on board. In addition, this publication and the positive press
that should come from the NCQA review will give the salesforce added fuel to help drive
uptake with physicians.
At a stock price of about $13, our math suggests that the stock is pricing in about 500,000
to 600,000 tests to be run in 2018,
which is in line with where our model stands, though
we are not factoring in any upside from these recent positive developments. While we
acknowledge it has been a tough ride over the last year and the guidance for 2016 still
looks aggressive, we maintain our Outperform rating on the stock given the improving
longer-term outlook that has emerged in the last few weeks.
as per William Blair"