4 analisten : 1 neutraal + 3 buy koersdoelen 12 mnd: 9 - 12 euro
1 trader update : accumulate koersdoel 24 mnd: 15 euro
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supportive longterm : SBB becoming more visible again
- short term guidance ( until 2021 + 10% CAGR )
- LT ( ambition ) 2030 period stronger than expected = 15% growth
- inflection point becoming visible as adoption rates increase strongly as ADAS/HD maps start to accelerate
HD maps to grow from 0.1 bn 2020 to 0.8 bn 2025 to 3.0 bn 2030 for product roadmap guidance
other markets will use HD maps are Robo Taxi's @ euro 0.5 bn by 2030 and Govnmt / Asset Mngmt also 0.5 bn by 2030
- take rates in ADAS Maps are expected to increase from 20% today to 40% by 2030, while HD Maps are expected to grow from zero to 30% by 2030
guidance:
290 mio D&A for 19/20, dropping to 80 mio in 21, after which it will gradually reduce to rhe capex level ( arnd 50 mio annually)
def rev for 2019 60 mio, model has yet to be updated post 2Q results
for 2020 targeting 95 mio Automotive, 10 mio consumer and 15 mio enterprise
cash spend in 2019 to increase 17% yoy 520 mio
continue to invest but more moderate going forward
2/3 spending on R&D
high degree of automation will reduce spending on automation and processing, while more spend is to be expected in engineering
the backlog is basically adding all un-discounted expected IFRS revenues, a TT definition and not an IFRS definition
its based on the latest available estimates for vol and take rates multiplied by agreed pricing ( a better reflection of future rev than the current order-intake ( fails to capture contract reassesments
conclusion: share buy-back or div is likely as Management hinted that cash balance more than sufficient.
Enterprise: prosucts are used by 1.0 bn people on a daily basis
the 2 map products are Uncompiled Maps & Traffic data and Map APIs
TT is a relative new comer in the API space, which is a big usd 1.0 bn market
TT powering a significant number of Azure products
MSFT deciden not to build a map of their own, the decision to chose TT for LT partnership was taken as MSFT believes TT has the best to offer
Automotive:
mega trend to get connected ( software & maps updates, sharing sensor data) , Automated ( ADAS & HD map content) , Shared ( LBS and partnerships) and Electrified
take rates expected to continue to increase dramatically in years to come from 35% to 80% ( 2030)
in Automotive TT has an 80% mkt share in traffic Europe and 40% in the US
Company still winning traffic mkt share in the US ( 2 new OEMS signed recently)
also in EV TT is leading as it supplies the highest volume and 50% of OEMs are working with TT
in Maps HERE is still leader in both Europe and the US
TT is gaining mkt share , but not in enough
TT however is working very hard at gaining mkt share in navigation ( lane positioning, collision warning, blind spots etc ...)
Autonomous driving:
TT acts in the Map space and strongly believes HD maps is an integrated part of Autonomous Driving
there is a massive mkt opportunity ahead of us, massive growth - this is their ambition
TT believes they are mkt leader in HD Maps, they hv won 60% of the vol awarded in the industry and onlu lost out as HERE is winning the Germans
TT has a compelling stack combining the customer experience , transactional Map making and most complete product portfolio in HD mapping
de lofzang is groots maar de conclusie is dat het pas echt los gaat na 2021
maar de markt loopt uit op grote verwachtingen, dus dat zou koers ondersteunend moeten zijn
voor de korte termijn is de conclusie wel
2020 likely to be a soft patch
short term outlook somewhat weaker
de inkoop aandelen zou dus uiterst gepast zijn ( mits schrapping) om snel uit te voeren , daar korte termijn weakness een uitzonderlijke opportuniteit geeft, het zal gauw voorbij zijn.
succes