Franse aandelen schreef op 2 november 2023 19:06:
many users said already something regarding dividend. So please see other users as well.
My opinion is the following.
In French SIIC regime a REIT needs to pay obligatory 80% of its AREPS as dividend UNLESS the statuary result is negative. What does that mean? That means if for instance the NAV of the REIT is falling and the annual evaluation shows a loss (i.e. for instance that "decrease of NAV"+ AREPS is smaller than 0) than under SIIC regime the REIT does not have the obligation to pay any dividend BUT once over years the historical statuary losses of the past become 0 or gains than under SIIC regime the REIT needs to repay all dividends that were not paid in the past!
2020 was not paid
2021 was not paid
2022 was not paid
1,7bn EUR was approvisionned for those 3 years, i.e. approximately 12 EUR per share.
Since 2023 the operational results are positive, URW could pay a dividend. However the NAV in 2023 is still decreasing and so under statutory obligations URW could (if they wanted) say that they don t pay a dividend for 2023 in 2024. However even if they would do that, they would have to do a new provision of ~80% of AREPS (after possible taxes or other deductions on company level) in that case for 2023. URW thinks to have 9,5 EUR AREPS per share at least for 2023. I believe we could end up with 9,55-9,65 EUR per share. Let us take the minimum which URW projects, the 9,5 EUR AREPS. Then 80% of that is 7,6 EUR.
I believe Unibail, despite not having an obligation again for 2023 to pay a dividend (because statutory results might be negative again despite very good operational results due to devaluation of real estate value (NAV)) will pay 4 EUR dividend and use the reminder (5,5 EUR) in order to strengthen the balance sheet (bring LTV under 40%).
In the pessimistic scenario (0 EUR dividends due to 4th year of statuory loss) and in my guess (4 EUR dividend) the reminder after tax needs to be put into a provision in order to one day pay 80% of AREPS as dividend under SIIC rules (as i understand them).
So even if 0 would be paid which some users in this forum or other forums believe, be reminded that the SIIC obligation for the years to come remains and if one day statuary results become 0 or positive any non paid dividend or partially paid dividend needs to be paid matchings 80% of AREPS.
So basically, i don t care if we have a dividend paid next year, because I believe real estate will appreciate and the historical negative statutory result will again become positive one day. Of course there is also the scenario that it does not and will never. Those who believe in that negative future perspective should not invest in a REIT anyways.
URW stated that they comment on dividends in the FY2023 result presentation beginning February 2024. They will look at the LTV (ideally below 40%, currently something like 41.9% if I am not wrong), the operational results, the advancement of selling properties and credit metrics (= where are the interest rates, how is the credit market looking like, where stands liquidity, etc.).