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Arcelor Mittal mei 2020

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Stefzele1 14 mei 2020 16:27

@Pussy, met een winst van 5 à 10% ben ik al tevreden en je moet deze aandelen even op de plank leggen zoals jullie zeggen...

voda 14 mei 2020 16:29

Encapsulate The Distressing Macro Environment

May 14, 2020 2:12 AM ET|2 comments | About: ArcelorMittal (MT)
Vasily Zyryanov
Long/short equity
(835 followers)

Summary
Depressed macro environment and plunging demand for steel multiply the hardships of MT.
The company posted a gargantuan net loss which was distorted by impairment and exceptional charges.
However, EBITDA purified from one-off items was also afflicted, dropped 44% vs. 1Q19. FCF was negative.
Dividend suspension and a capital raise will protect liquidity.
The stock is attractively valued, but I am neutral for now.

After 2019 that was overshadowed by a substantial drop in demand for steel amid the U.S-China trade confrontation and uncertainty spawned by it, Luxembourg-based ArcelorMittal (MT), one of the leaders of the grey metal industry, encountered much more aggressive headwinds in 2020. The supply-demand imbalance amid the economic turmoil across the globe induced by the pandemic sent its first-quarter revenue plunging. Despite some recuperation of economic activity in the world that we have been watching closely this May, Q2 and full-year results will likely be lackluster, as analysts are forecasting the 2020 revenue to be more than 23% below the 2019 level and the Q2 revenue to dip 42.7%.

As EBITDA plummeted because of softness in the core end-markets, the company has been implementing urgent measures to optimize the capital structure. However, an announcement of a $2 billion capital raise via issuance of common stock and mandatorily convertible subordinated notes was perceived by the investor community as an undesirable sign and led to an around 12.9% share price drop on the NYSE on May 11. That is explainable considering dilution and decrease in value per share which inevitably follows stock issuances.

Among other things, Moody’s has recently downgraded MT to junk credit rating, citing demand loss because of the coronavirus and its ripple effects on steel consumption in the automotive and construction industries, etc.

After a slew of disappointing events, MT is trading at EV/EBITDA of 7x and EV/Sales of just 0.31x. So, let’s delve into its Q1 results that have been presented recently to examine if there is a value investing opportunity here.

The top line
ArcelorMittal’s first-quarter sales were down 23% vs. 1Q19. The result has been the weakest since the fourth quarter of 2016. $14.84 billion in sales was the lowest result since the last quarter of 2016. Both revenue and EPS were deeply below the level Wall Street had expected.

Segmental data bring valuable insights worth highlighting. For instance, while the NAFTA region delivered a 4% improvement in shipments that had been close to the strongest levels since 1Q17, Brazil (the segment also encompasses Argentina, Costa Rica, and Venezuela) disappointed with an above 18% contraction that sent quarterly shipments close to a three-year nadir. Europe, the company’s bulwark with the most significant contribution to the top line, reported a 19.5% reduction. 9.3 Mt were slightly above lackluster 4Q19 results, but still almost the worst in comparison to twelve previous quarters.

Softness in Europe is fully explainable. For instance, in France during the first month of the coronavirus pandemic, the output of the construction industry tumbled by 90%, as the research conducted by Insee, the National Institute of Statistics and Economic Studies, illustrated. That weighed on demand for steel.

Finally, ACIS set a three-year anti-record with 2.614 Mt. All in all, despite marginal improvement in the NAFTA region, a material decline in the European segment hammered the 1Q20 sales and took a toll on margins and operating cash flow.

MT 1Q20 crude steel production of 21.1 Mt was 12.5% lower than in 1Q19 but well above the 4Q20 production of 19.8 Mt. Scaled back production staved off a huge inventory build-up that could lead to a sharp increase in working capital and, in turn, take a toll on net operating cash flow and capex coverage.

While revenue contracted, IFRS operating income did not emerge unscathed. Operating income was dragged down by impairment (because of permanent closure of the coke plant in Florange, France), a non-cash expense, and one-off charges. The scale of impairment was well below the 4Q19 when it equaled $830 million, but still substantial enough to send quarterly EBIT to the sub-zero territory.

Another huge blow was from exceptional charges, which were the consequence of the decrease in value of the inventory that was caused by a weak pricing outlook; they amounted to $457 million. That hugely distorted IFRS operating income as in 1Q19 the company reported no exceptional charges.

EBITDA, the metric that helps to mitigate the effect of non-cash expenses and tax regimes on a company’s income, also disappointed and plunged 44% vs. 1Q19 to just $967 million.

Voor veel meer, zie link:

seekingalpha.com/article/4347404-arce...

[verwijderd] 14 mei 2020 16:30

quote:
Blancaut schreef op 14 mei 2020 16:24:
in US doet het aandeel het voorlopig beter.
Ik zie in morgen wel een positieve dag met wat herstel!

ik verwacht omdat we al op -30 staan dat we terug gaan tot ongeveer 10 euro. En daar een tijd blijven hangen.

robvld 14 mei 2020 16:34

Het is een dejavu van 2 maanden terug. Mensen roeptoeteren weer 2-3-4 euro. Onzin. De sensatiemakers onderons en de optimisten. Ik word er zo moe van vooral de opmerkelijke Snuf die iedere keer roept het word 6 euro maar wel negatief uitlaat van wat een roestbak en alles is ***. Man je had miljonair kunnen zijn als je je eigen onzin ook eens daadwerkelijk opvolgde.

Mijn advies is wacht geduldig af. Ja we zullen eind van de maand niet op 10 euro staan maar ook niet op 3. Ik zie de toekomst eerder hoger in dan lager.

[verwijderd] 14 mei 2020 16:40

De trein is vertrokken. In US omgerekend staan we al op 7.4 EUR.

Mollie-108 14 mei 2020 16:45

Thunderbirds are GO...........Boom! go green.

BL93 14 mei 2020 16:51

Wauw, op 15 minuten tijd van 7.209 naar 7.481. Wordt nog zelfs groen vandaag...

Te vroeg gekocht gisteren op 7.60, wel weer bijna terug daarop nu.

Vanochtend was, voor hoe het nu zichtbaar is op 7.10 +/- (of wat was het?) een mooi koopmomentje.

andrejes 14 mei 2020 16:51

En groen

[verwijderd] 14 mei 2020 16:51

Sowieso nog groen. Je moet eens naar US kijken, al +2% vandaag!
Ik heb gisteren gekocht op 7.6 (750 stuks), maar had eerder een beperkt verlies (400 EUR) genomen door de sterke daling.
Sterk dat AM vandaag zo zal eindigen gezien de algemene negatieve tendens.

Samen met Kinepolis & Lucas Bols de enige groene voorlopig vandaag.

Stefzele1 14 mei 2020 16:52

Yyyiiihhhaaa...

Archie Steelman 14 mei 2020 16:53

Het onmogelijke is soms toch mogelijk

Mollie-108 14 mei 2020 16:54

Even de shorters de nek omdraaien :)

[verwijderd] 14 mei 2020 16:56

En daar is het groen zoals ik had verwacht.

robvld 14 mei 2020 16:56

Jongens hou dit gevoel vast. Jullie zijn al snel tevreden.

NN Group 23,470 -9,14%
Royal Dutch... 13,810 -9,73%
ABN AMRO BA... 5,926 -11,68%
UNIBAIL-ROD... 43,060 -13,98%
ArcelorMittal 7,563 -25,93%

nog even te gaan om de week goed te maken ;-)

[verwijderd] 14 mei 2020 16:58

Ben benieuwd hoe groen we gaan sluiten.

[verwijderd] 14 mei 2020 16:59

quote:
robvld schreef op 14 mei 2020 16:56:
Jongens hou dit gevoel vast. Jullie zijn al snel tevreden.

NN Group 23,470 -9,14%
Royal Dutch... 13,810 -9,73%
ABN AMRO BA... 5,926 -11,68%
UNIBAIL-ROD... 43,060 -13,98%
ArcelorMittal 7,563 -25,93%

nog even te gaan om de week goed te maken ;-)

Tenzij je een verlies nam en goedkoper terug inkocht

Pensioenpot 14 mei 2020 16:59

Bouwt even een shorter zijn positie af zeg wauw.

Pensioenpot 14 mei 2020 17:00

Unibail laat eenzelfde turn zien. Kan niet anders dan afbouw shortposities.

[verwijderd] 14 mei 2020 17:02

wat een geweld om omhoog te komen

Stefzele1 14 mei 2020 17:02

@Pensioenpot, bodemvissers en/of koopjesjagers...

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