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Uit het SNS bericht over Stern:
The facts: Dutch new car registrations continued an upward monthly trend, given that car registrations yoy increased by 15% to 38,603 in July, according to figures reported by Bovag, RAI Vereniging and RDC.
Our analysis: Even though new car registrations decreased by 25% on a monthly comparison (impacted by summer holidays), we clearly recognise a recovery in car sales. In 7M10, 308,717 cars were registered, versus 387,699 in 12M09 and registrations are therefore well proceeding to exceed last year's historical low. Given the forecasted annual new car registration of 410,000 by RAI Vereniging, over 75% has already been achieved in the first 7 months.
The best sold brands were (ranked from number 1-5); Volkswagen, Ford, Peugeot, Toyota and Renault in July 2010. Most appealing for Stern is the progress of Ford, in which it is market leader in the Netherlands, towards a 2nd position in July (only ranked 5th in June).
Less positive for Stern's revenue development is that the top 5 of best sold car types, are all within the lower margin, but environmental friendly, A and B segments.
For FY10, we take into account a 4.5% yoy increase in total sales. Given the sustained upwards trend in car registrations, our FY10 sales estimate seems easily to be achieved. Stern reports 1H10 results on 27 August and we expect an elaborated company update at the results presentation.
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