Volgend artikel is van de Financial Times/ The Lex Column van 11 september 2014.
Conclusie is duidelijk, beleggen in AIR FRANCE is inspelen op een verdere daling van de olieprijzen... zoals eender gemeld, AIR FRANCE is één van de minst gehedgde vliegtuigmaatschappijen.
Air France-KLM: Baby steps
The airline has a new strategy, but is it a good one?
Companies that try to raise growth by setting up a new division usually have a stable core business to support the new venture. Not Air France-KLM. It chose to run before it could walk properly. On Thursday management announced Perform 2020, a plan that includes doubling the fleet of its low-cost carrier Transavia, to 100 aircraft. Air France-KLM aims to grow this business while trimming costs in its long-haul operation. That will put pressure on its fragile balance sheet.
The shares have bounced recently after having a bad summer, falling as much as 40 per cent from a peak in June. With jet fuel prices touching lows not seen since November, some pressure may come off the company’s slim profit margin. Despite hedges,
Credit Suisse estimates that every $50 per metric ton drop in the jet fuel price should add €120m to operating profits – about a fifth of estimated profits for 2014.
Jet fuel has already fallen about $50 this year. Good.
But longer term, Air France-KLM’s strategy lacks thrust. First, its long-haul business is likely to struggle. Liberum thinks excess capacity still exists in continental airline routes to the US. Yes, Transavia has low unit costs, at just 5 euro cents per available seat kilometre (lower than easyJet’s 6 cents). But funding the expansion of a weak brand (it lost €23m last year) such as Transavia would stretch any company, never mind one with a levered balance sheet. Net debt to earnings before interest, tax, depreciation, amortisation and aircraft rent in 2013 was 4.2 times.
Ryanair and easyJet are chasing the European flag carriers. Both have moved upmarket with premium services. As they attack the higher end from a position of strength, Air France-KLM is attacking the low end from a position of weakness. If oil prices don’t keep falling, it has little margin for error.