ASML « Terug naar discussie overzicht

quote:

SNSN schreef op 18 oktober 2018 15:36:

[...]

Sorry, you didn't do homework properly. Seems are not attentive, reading posts you are missing some (important) points & details.

Ok, let's try one more time:

1. To make it easier, just take a look at the table in the post from Spt 16 14:42, and just add extra column with "net booking". For each quarter use 'legged' numbers of 'net booking', i.e. for Quarter ("T") add "net booking" (from "T-1" Q-report).

2. Then, for each (Quarter) line in your new table (with 3 columns) calculate 2 new numbers: i) "expected sales" - "net booking" and ii) "net sales" - "net booking"

So, you have a table with 5 columns. Now try to a) find 'singularities', if any, in both sequences (i) and (ii), b) compare sequences (i) & (ii) and their 'singularities', if any, and iii) try to check t-correlations of your findings (a) & (b) with stock price actions/dynamics.

The next step will be to identify the reason for each 'singularity', if any, using public info on the company (q-reports, publications, ets.).

You may also add another column including differences: "expected sales" - "net sales" for each quarter ("net sales" - is just "actual sales" in the table from Spt 16). Using received time-series, just check "bias", if any.

As for the company performance forecast, you'll need a model. By the way, to check our model just take a look, for instance, at the prediction on Q3/2017 (seems the post from Oct 16, 2017). You can also look at the Q4/2017 (it may help to understand a 'source' of 'singularities')

Good luck.

PS. As for the current session, the stock was testing r-zone at ~160 (read yesterday posts) twice. The mt-downtrend since Jul 24 is intact ( for more details just take a look at the last post from Oct 17).

quote:

Mindsetter schreef op 18 oktober 2018 14:56:

Gapfill is noodzakelijk. Dat gebeurt heel regelmatig. Als je dat niet begrijpt, lever dan tenminste ook geen ongenuanceerd commentaar.
Kijk naar Galapagos; top resultaten Filgotinib; een Spike naar de €105 ATH en dat vanaf de €85. Daarna is de koers volledig teruggevallen tot die hele gap was gevuld. Praat je over -€20 op enkel goed nieuws. En na de gapfill weer up, nu €92

quote:

TheSky schreef op 18 oktober 2018 16:31:

www.lynx.nl/kennis/artikelen/technisc...

quote:

SNSN schreef op 18 oktober 2018 15:36:

[...]

Sorry, you didn't do homework properly. Seems are not attentive, reading posts you are missing some (important) points & details.

Ok, let's try one more time:

1. To make it easier, just take a look at the table in the post from Spt 16 14:42, and just add extra column with "net booking". For each quarter use 'legged' numbers of 'net booking', i.e. for Quarter ("T") add "net booking" (from "T-1" Q-report).

2. Then, for each (Quarter) line in your new table (with 3 columns) calculate 2 new numbers: i) "expected sales" - "net booking" and ii) "net sales" - "net booking"

So, you have a table with 5 columns. Now try to a) find 'singularities', if any, in both sequences (i) and (ii), b) compare sequences (i) & (ii) and their 'singularities', if any, and iii) try to check t-correlations of your findings (a) & (b) with stock price actions/dynamics.

The next step will be to identify the reason for each 'singularity', if any, using public info on the company (q-reports, publications, ets.).

You may also add another column including differences: "expected sales" - "net sales" for each quarter ("net sales" - is just "actual sales" in the table from Spt 16). Using received time-series, just check "bias", if any.

As for the company performance forecast, you'll need a model. By the way, to check our model just take a look, for instance, at the prediction on Q3/2017 (seems the post from Oct 16, 2017). You can also look at the Q4/2017 (it may help to understand a 'source' of 'singularities')

Good luck.

PS. As for the current session, the stock was testing r-zone at ~160 (read yesterday posts) twice. The mt-downtrend since Jul 24 is intact ( for more details just take a look at the last post from Oct 17).