JP Morgan bezit meer dan 5% van AMG. (& niet Morgan Stanley zoals iemand hier suggereerde)
Buy SQM After Slump, Investment Thesis Intact, JPMorgan Says
By Eduardo Thomson
(Bloomberg) --
SQM, GXY, ORE and KDR are top picks for JPMorgan to gain exposure to lithium producers, according to a note written by analysts Lucas Ferreira and Mathew Hocking.
SQM, ALB slumped yesterday after Morgan Stanley issued a report recommending to sell both stocks, saying that lithium carbonate prices would fall ~45%
JPMorgan reiterates its seaborne lithium carbonate price estimates: $14,000/t in 2018E, $14,250/t in 2019E, $13,000/t in 2020E, and $10,000/t long term
The lithium market is small and underdeveloped, so pricing volatility will be high, but when valuing assets with multi-decade operating lives, using a long-term price set at marginal cost implies no further capital will be incentivized into the upstream lithium market
This doesn’t correlate with JPMorgan’s demand growth expectations from 250ktpa LCE in 2017 to around 1Mtpa LCE by 2030
Near-term prices supported by tight market with inventories near zero in special high-quality material
Spot prices in China remain near record highs
JPMorgan says it prefers exposure to battery-grade LCE producers
Sector valuations should remain supported by scarcity value, EV thematic, and 15% five-year demand CAGR
SQM investment thesis remains intact:
Corfo deal makes the company more investable in the long term and gives it the ability to gain share
Earnings to be supported by positive near-term volume and prices in all businesses