Situatie in Brazilie lijkt wel veel beter dan in andere Zuid Amerikaanse landen...
Key View
We at Fitch Solutions are highlighting upside risk to our lithium production forecasts for Brazil, after Codemge, the state-owned company of key mining state Minas Gerais, opted to increase the share of resources owned by the private sector.
An increasingly supportive policymaking environment for lithium mining may help spur further investment in the industry.
The move runs counter to the approach increasingly adopted by other lithium-rich countries in the region, such as Chile, Peru and Mexico, which have moved to expand the level of state involvement in lithium extraction.
We see scope for considerable expansion of Brazil's lithium mining sector, although challenges do remain, particularly related to the potential for higher taxes and greater environmental oversight in the event of a victory for opposition candidate Lula da Silva in the October 2022 presidential election.
We note upside risk to our lithium production forecasts following signs of a shift towards a more business-friendly approach to the lithium sector in the key mining state of Minas Gerais. In February 2022, the Companhia de Desenvolvimento de Minas Gerais (Codemge), the state's mineral development company, announced that it would sell its 33.3% interest in the Companhia Brasileira de Lítio (CBL), Brazil's only current lithium producer. CBL operates an underground mine in Araçuaí and has a processing unit in Divisa Alegre. Announcing the sale, the Codemge president emphasised that competitiveness and efficient use of natural resources would be prioritised in its strategy going forwards. This move, which runs counter to the regional and global trend of resource nationalism we have been highlighting, indicates an openness to private investment in the sector which will make the country a more attractive destination for foreign investment. We believe that this sale, and the rhetoric which has surrounded it, will help attract private capital to the lithium sector in particular, and especially from investors concerned about rising risks of asset nationalisation in Chile and neighbouring Peru.