Latin America Crude Steel Production Grow But Rolled Steel Production Down - Alacero
Latin American steel association Alacero said that the climate for doing business in Latin America worsened between January and April, due to turbulence in the Brazilian economy, the largest in the region, according to the quarterly report of the Getúlio Vargas Foundation of Brazil and the Institute of Economic Research from Germany. Besides Brazil, another country that contributed to the worsening of the index was Mexico, while Colombia and Peru were the only countries that showed an improvement in the period. The Argentine trade balance showed a positive balance, although it should continue to be closely monitored. Most central banks have kept rates steady at recent meetings, reflecting contained inflation and reduced pressure for the normalization of the global monetary policy.
The steel market in the region from January to March 2019 showed a 3% drop in the consumption of rolled steel compared to the same period in 2018. The regional production of crude and rolled steel until April decreased by 5% and 9%, respectively, versus January to April of the previous year. Still, the ups and downs in production for the first four months point to an increase in consumption. From January to April, the cumulated production of crude and rolled steel was below that indicated in 2018. This year, there is a gradual increase and the expectations for the year are growing, even if the scenario is not as positive as 2018.
The region increased its imports by 17% between February and March 2019, identifying a 4% increase compared to January to March 2018. The participation of imports in regional consumption also increased this year: regional consumption is now supplied with 37% of these imports, in contrast to 35% in the period from January to March of 2018. The same accumulated growth was identified in the first two months (35% - 37%), confirming the dependence on the consumption of imported rolled steel, in the face of production falls. The deficit registered in January to March 2019 was 3.5 million tonne, with 342 thousand tonnes more than January to March of the previous year (3.1 million tonne).
Despite negative oscillations compared to the same accumulated period of 2018, due to changes in consumption and market uncertainties, crude steel production increased by 1% and rolled steel production fell by 4% in April, respectively, compared to March 2019.
Crude Steel - Latin America had a production of 5.2 million tonne of crude steel in April, 5.6% lower than in the same period of 2018 (5.5 million tonne). For the year 2019, 21 million tonne were produced, 5% less than Jan to April 2018 (21.9 million tonne). The same cumulative comparison for the first three months also showed a 5% decline, but a growth compared to the previous months shows a recovery in the market. In the year, Brazil is the main producer with 11.3 million tonne, representing 54% of the annual regional total.
Rolled Steel - The region produced 4.2 million tonne of rolled steel in April, 11% less than in the same period in 2018 (4.7 million tonne). It was produced16.7 million tonne in the year, representing a decrease of 9% compared to the first 4 months of 2018 (18.3 million tonne). The comparison accumulated in the previous report indicated a 7% drop. The main producers in the year are Brazil with 7.5 million tonne (45% of the Latin American total) and Mexico with 5.9 million tonne (35% of the region's total).
Imports - 2.1 million tonne of rolled steel were imported in March, 9% more than March 2018 (1.9 million tonne). In the period from January to March 2019, Latin America imported 5.9 million tonne of rolled steel, 4% more than in the same period of 2018 (5.6 million tonne). Of this total, 70% corresponds to flat products (4.1 million tonne), 27% to long products (1.6 million tonne) and 3% to seamless pipes (164 thousand tonnes). In March, imports of rolled products accounted 37% of the total region's consumption, the same percentage in the first quarter of 2019, which discourages local industry, trade tensions and jeopardizes employment sources.
Exports - 716 thousand tonnes of rolled products were exported in March, 4% less than in February 2019 (748 thousand tonnes) and 24% less than March 2018 (937 thousand tonnes). In the period from January to March, Latin American exports of rolled steel were 2.4 million tonne, 4% less than in the same period of last year (2.5 million tonne). Of this total, 48% correspond to long products (1.1 million tonne), 42% to flat products (1.0 million tonne) and 10% to seamless pipes (253 thousand tonnes).
Trade Deficit - The region recorded a trade deficit of 1.39 million tonne of rolled steel in March 2019. This imbalance is 41% higher than in March 2018 (0.99 million tonne) and 31% higher than in February 2019 (1.06 million tonne). Brazil is followed by Argentina in the positive trade balance of rolled products between January and March. The first with 666 thousand tonnes, and Argentina with a positive balance of 14 thousand tonnes. However, the Argentine positive balance should be taken with caution due to its low representation, needing to confirm in the coming performance for a more realistic projection.
Source : Strategic Research Institute