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ASML in 2015

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After yesterday bearish reversal signal "spinning top" (read yesterday posts), the market/aex formed another (strong) two-days bearish reversal pattern - "bearish engulfing" (has statistically good predictive power especially if formed within the clear uptrend just under the resistance level)

So, don't forget that 'asml' is highly correlated with 'aex'....
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Ik denk dat je beter nog even kunt wachten..... en jouw koersdoelen van E120-E130 zou ik voorlopig maar vergeten.
Chineesintimboektoe
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quote:

Jolly Jumper schreef op 20 juli 2015 10:56:

[...]

Als je tevreden bent, dat is altijd mijn stelling...
Goedemorgen Jolly,

Nou tevreden zijn we allebei vast niet op dit moment ;)

Middel jij in dit soort situaties of is er teveel risico.
ben benieuwd naar je mening
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Ontevredenheid is het begin van vooruitgang(en wat dat aangaat is er nog een weg te gaan)
4finance
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ASML op dit moment helaas even in de ruststand.....maar....... ASML gaat ons de komende maanden zeker niet tegenvallen.....Lekker blijven zitten..... De verrassing in het najaar kon wel eens zeer groot zijn..... Het is natuurlijk wachten op de volgende EUV klant..... Dat gaat niet lang meer duren....Let wel..... op op het EUV gebied zijn er forse vorderingen die zich de komende maanden zeker gaan uitbetalen in een flinke hogere koers......Gewoon wat geduld.....:-)

altijdwat
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Laatste koers verkocht op 93,65 euro en nu weer terug gekocht voor 91,91 euro. Tevens puts geschreven met aug en sept als uitloopdatum. Als de koers omhoog gaat dan is het zowel op de aandelen cashen als op de geschreven puts.
Gewoon geduld hebben is nu het toverwoord. Als zich een nieuwe klant aandient dan staat de koers zo weer op 100,00 / 105,00 euro.
gam gam
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Tijdens mijn vakantie is de volgende order gegaan: ASL callspread DEC 2019 +120-150 voor 580 euro. Ben er helemaal blij mee.
NB je kunt het nu zelfs nog iets goedkoper krijgen.
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Het vervelende is dat ze niet altijd de nwe order melden aan ons! De nwe klant voor 6 machines hadden ze een maand later gemeld bij de cijfers, vreemd en niet echt aandeelhouders vriendelijk.
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The stock is in the mt-downtrend since last May (see old posts), with the upper/lower edges at ~95 / ~86.9.

At negative d-sentiment (pivot point PP=93.15), the stock develops a classic bearish (day) pattern, trading within the range S1(92.35) - S2(91.48)

The short-term support (formed last weeks) is around ~91.50, just (slightly) reinforcing the d-support at S2.
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PS. The "falling-top-line" determining the st-down(sub)trend for last days (within the mt-downtrend since May) forms an extra (dynamic) resistance, which is around ~92.25 at the moment and ~92.15 at closing.

On longer horizon the asml is forming a pattern with the target just slightly under the lower edge of downtrend since last May.
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Two reports from seekingalpha:

1) ASML May Be The Best Stock In The Semiconductor Universe

seekingalpha.com/article/3342185-asml...

2) ASML: At Least 50% Upside Potential By 2020, But Stock A Bit Risky

ASML's Price Target Based On P/E Ratio

ASML has a price multiple of 27.92 versus 19.8 for its peers. Using the current price multiple, the stock price could hit €156 by 2020. For 2015, a price multiple of 27.92 would indicate a stock price of €93.25. This means that the company currently is trading at a fair value for the year. The price multiple of 27.92 might seem high, but given the fact that ASML uses a technology that almost all manufacturers of chips will use in the coming decade, a high price multiple is more than justified.

It has to be noted that currently progress in the EUV technology is lifting the stock price higher and that probably will remain so for another year or 2 when EUV machines will be used in high-volume manufacturing.

Conclusion

I see more than 50% upside potential for ASML by 2020.
Currently, the stock is trading at fair value.
ASML is a nice long-term investment.
Despite the fact that I see significant upside potential, I also have to note that ASML is also a risky investment due to the fact that its targets are geared towards the success of a technology that is currently maturing.

seekingalpha.com/article/3343835-asml...

EUV
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ASML aan de vooravond van de opmars!
ASML is tot nu toe de enige met prima kwartaalcijfers!!

I see more than 50% upside potential for ASML by 2020.
Currently, the stock is trading at fair value.
ASML is a nice investment.
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On lt-horizons the 'asml' is a well developed "bubble fund" with real fair value just slightly above ~39 - which is very close to that price the main shareholders paid in fall 2012. The 'asml' is currently completing a "strategic" top-forming process just under the main resistance zone (see last months posts for details). The bearish signals were formed on weekly and monthly charts (see old posts). The strategic top-forming process has dynamic "flat drift" around ~96 at high dynamic volatility ("sigma" ~ 7%), with the lower/upper "volatility edges" around ~89/~103. Within "strategic" top-forming the institutionals were selling...., reducing their "longs" (nasdaq data). An interesting example: JPMorgan was selling last Mar-Apr while (another ?) JPMorgan was giving advice "overweight" (see old posts for details).

Don't forget that "brokers" & "analysts" advices usually have very different objectives ..., comparing to those of their clients and retailers... Anyway, making LT-investment decision remember that "one size does NOT fit ALL"

On mt-horizons the downtrend is intact - the upper/lower descending-channel borders are ~94.8/~86.7. Thus, it's still a part of "strategic volatility" (played by profs and traded by different st/d-trading strategies) within the "strategic" top-forming process on LT-horizon. The stock has quite high cash-outflow for last months, with well dominating "distribution" over "accumulation".

On st-horizon trading within the range: PP(92.10) - R1(92.70) with slightly-positive to neutral d-sentiment the 'asm' was testing recent "falling-top-line" which is around the "pivot point" (PP-line) at the moment. The "critical decision" point is M+(92.40)
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