ASML « Terug naar discussie overzicht

quote:

Prince Meander schreef op 23 juli 2015 10:31:

ASML aan de vooravond van de opmars!
ASML is tot nu toe de enige met prima kwartaalcijfers!!

I see more than 50% upside potential for ASML by 2020.
Currently, the stock is trading at fair value.
ASML is a nice investment.

quote:

Chineesintimboektoe schreef op 22 juli 2015 09:35:

[...]
Goedemorgen Jolly,

Nou tevreden zijn we allebei vast niet op dit moment ;)

Middel jij in dit soort situaties of is er teveel risico.
ben benieuwd naar je mening

quote:

Jolly Jumper schreef op 23 juli 2015 13:28:

[...]

Sorry voor de late reactie, ik was tevreden met 7k winst en ben uitgestapt, maar meestal middel ik wel als ik vertrouwen blijf houden, anders pak ik het verlies of wacht af tot de expiratie datum.

quote:

Chineesintimboektoe schreef op 23 juli 2015 13:55:

[...]
Dan had je vast wat meer dan de 11 die ik heb.
sta nu 30% in de min, misschien beter om nu verlies te pakken en Besi in te stappen.

quote:

Jolly Jumper schreef op 23 juli 2015 13:59:

[...]

Uhhh ja, ik had een flink stukje meer, persoonlijk zou ik nog even wachten...

quote:

EUV schreef op 23 juli 2015 13:36:

Dear SNSN,

Could you please provide your background analysis of your statement on ASML`s current (July 2015) fair value:

On lt-horizons the 'asml' is a well developed "bubble fund" with real fair value just slightly above ~39 -

Thanks for sharing the factual support of your fundamental analysis of ASML,

EUV

quote:

Mann0 schreef op 23 juli 2015 12:57:

Potential interesting look on ASML (and its value)

seekingalpha.com/article/3342185-asml...

quote:

SNSN schreef op 23 juli 2015 14:26:

[...]

First of all, a real "fair value" is directly related to a company worth, which is NOT observable in the market directly, as there are NO corresponding liquid markets. That's why there are many diff methodologies (divided on relative and absolute evaluations) supposing to "recover" unobservable variables by expressing them through the parameters measurable in the markets (equity, fixed income, etc.). Modern evaluation methodologies involves very complex math, and account for a large number of parameters.... As an example, a well known KMV-methodology (currently used by Moodys' credit rating branch) for the "probability of default" (on names level) is using so-called Merton option model (but much more sophisticated) to calculate unobservable company worth with certain accuracy.

Second, the real fair value for 'asml' was calculated via "relative evaluation" methodology (also accounting for known constraints that could influence the real value - don't forget, for instance, that among others the 'asml' has large "tax exemption" - firm practically doesn't pay tax - just ~(1-5)% for several years since ~2010). The relative evaluation was briefly explained (several times) a couple of years ago at "kpn"-forum. As an example, the (real) "fair values" were also given (years ago) for "kpn" (~4.0) and for "orange" (~16.1). By the way, the fair value for 'kpn' (~4.0) was given when the market price was just around ~1.8, and for "orange" when it was priced just around ~8.0. Thus, comparing with current market prices (as well as with old and current brokers' & analysts' targets) you could get a feeling on how good the "relative evaluation" is.

quote:

SNSN schreef op 23 juli 2015 14:44:

[...]

This is a known low quality "publisher" that can't be considered seriously....

They mainly target (not advanced) retailers, and even some pension funds (which don't have a good investment branch, and/or research of their own)

Those who really know what "alpha" is/means (in a linear regression for CAPM) may see it directly from that article... (how meaningless the "analysis" you mentioned is)

PS. Don't forget, the "crucial decision" point for today is M+(92.40)

quote:

EUV schreef op 23 juli 2015 14:56:

[...]

Please not the above `sand`, you sound like ducking the question and nowhere even trying to answer my question. So you get a second chance, please explain your statement `slightly above 39 Euro`, it means please explain why you think it is not below 38, and not above 42, but current fair value is ~39 Euro.

So, please explain this ASML forum your statement on current fair value of ASML.

Thanks, EUV

P.S. For those ASML forum readers that missed the story of current ~90% litho market share of ASML see here the original story from 2 days ago by Robert Castellano:
seekingalpha.com/article/3339435-are-...

quote:

Mann0 schreef op 23 juli 2015 15:37:

[...]

Just another look on ASML. I understand your skepticism and I agree that the credibility of a source has to be taken into account, but I'm always interested in others arguments and ideas to make an objective decision. Hence my post.

thank you for your continuous analysis! appreciate that you take the time and effort to post here.

quote:

SNSN schreef op 23 juli 2015 15:48:

[...]

For those studded mat (at least) at school, should known well that "slightly above/below", for instance, "N" is just by definition:

"N" + "delta", where abs(delta) << N ("abs" means "absolute value" in school math)

As for the 'asml', its real fair value is ~39.4 (which is slightly above ~39).

You should always remember that we never "guess" about quant figures (it would be just stupid), but ALWAYS calculate them .... That is why the 'asml' fair value equal to ~39.4 is just a result of calculations based on relative evaluation methodology (read previous posts)...., nothing more.

For those really interested - the explanations on "relative evaluation methodology" was given several times since 2012 at kpn-forum - just take a look....

PS. The real "fair values" for 'kpn' and 'orange' (calculated ~3 years ago using relative evaluation) were given to you in order to back-test the figures and to get a feeling about the quality of methodology.

quote:

EUV schreef op 23 juli 2015 17:13:

[...]

O.K. SNSN, you ducked the question twice now. I give up on your contributions to this forum and will value your posts (e.g. your series on your `dynamic stock model`) with a `fair` value `slightly` above the limit for N->infinity of 1/N.

EUV

quote:

Prince Meander schreef op 23 juli 2015 18:40:

AL die Technische en ook nog engelstalige analyses van ASML heb je niks aan.
Heeft niks met kwaliteit van het bedrijf te maken
Dat ASML een hogere koers toekomt staat buiten kijf.
Naarmate meer bedrijven met tegenvallende cijfers komen, zal men zich steeds meer bewust ervan worden dat ASML hele goede resultaten meldde.
Dan zal eer rotatie plaatsvinden naar ASML aandelen
En dan zal de verdiende koers van E120 snel op de borden komen
Ik zie dat binnen 1 maand absoluut gebeuren