inspirator schreef op 2 september 2017 19:50:
Waarde Galapagos 220 dollar per aandeel.
Based on current share count, that would be $220.
GLPG gets 4.4 out of 5 stars
Management: *****
Onnon von de Stople is the founder and CEO of Galapagos. He has successfully managed the growth of the company for 18 years. I think the success of Glapagos thus far speaks for his great leadership. He negotiated the partnership with Gilead.
Science: *****
Filgotinib is a selective JAK1 inhibitor. It is in phase 3 for Rheumatoid Arthritis, Crohn's Disease and Ulcerative Colitis. It has high clinical remission rates in the mid 40% range across all these indications. Up to 70% of patients experience at least a 50% improvement in symptoms. They also have an early on program in Cystic Fibrosis and Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis.
Financials: *****
After signing a big partnership with Gilead, Galapagos is loaded with cash. They have over $1.2 billion in cash and burn less then $50 mil per quarter. They have 25 quarters worth of cash and a partner in Gilead that is funding part of the burden.
Risks: **
They have the typical risks related to all biotech. They face competition from other JAK inhibitors. They also still have the risk of clinical failures. They have Gilead running the commercialization of Filgotinib which spares them the risks related to commercialization of their drugs. They are in Europe and plan to launch this drug in a few European countries. They will slowly build out their commercial program as Gilead runs point on the first launches.
Potential: *****
Peak Sales for Filgotinib go up to as high as $7 billion across all the phase 3 indications of Rheumatoid Arthritis, Crohn's Diseas and Ulcerative Colitis. Even at 20% royalty this could be worth up to $1.4 billion in royalties for Galapagos. That would put them at closer to $11.2 billion market cap. Based on current share count, that would be $220. That gives us more then a double from here. It doesn't include any of the rest of the early pipeline assets.