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OCI - 2022: Nu of nooit!

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Omlaag ↓

BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 12:55

quote:
eduardo3105 schreef op 8 maart 2022 12:50:
[...]
Op koersverloop en omdat zij misschien de regels in Europa zat zijn.
Daarnaast de meeropbrengst van de verkoop van losse delen tov huidige koers.

Maarja dat geldt dan alleen voor biomcn en oci nitrogen, die regels.
En biomcn is net ondergebracht in oci methanol group.
En oci nitrogen is afhankelijk van ammonia uit het midden oosten.
Dat maakt die fabriek ook minder aantrekkelijk.
Maar be my guest. Sawiris mag van mij alles wel verkopen

HD_Erik 8 maart 2022 13:02

www.theguardian.com/business/2022/mar...

BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 14:12

Hoe denken jullie dat OCI kan profiteren van de versnelde energie transitie van voornamelijk de EU?
Wat is de EU van plan en hoe kan OCI daarop inspelen? Willen ze nog sneller over op waterstof? En dat OCI via ammonia daarop kan inspelen? Gaan ze schepen op stookolie verbieden en de scheepvaart 'dwingen' om over te stappen op methanol motoren?

objectief 8 maart 2022 14:34

quote:
BultiesBrothers schreef op 8 maart 2022 14:12:
Hoe denken jullie dat OCI kan profiteren van de versnelde energie transitie van voornamelijk de EU?
Wat is de EU van plan en hoe kan OCI daarop inspelen? Willen ze nog sneller over op waterstof? En dat OCI via ammonia daarop kan inspelen? Gaan ze schepen op stookolie verbieden en de scheepvaart 'dwingen' om over te stappen op methanol motoren?

Gezien de koers van OCI YTD gestegen is en die van andere bedrijven soms zelfs meer dan 25% gedaald; constateer ik dat dit bedrijf al maximaal profiteert. Als je nog meer verwacht, dan kan het deksel zomaar op je neus vallen.

BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 14:51

quote:
objectief schreef op 8 maart 2022 14:34:
[...]

Gezien de koers van OCI YTD gestegen is en die van andere bedrijven soms zelfs meer dan 25% gedaald; constateer ik dat dit bedrijf al maximaal profiteert. Als je nog meer verwacht, dan kan het deksel zomaar op je neus vallen.

Dan beoordeel je de koers van OCI alleen op basis van de index.
OCI verdiend haar geld met verkoop van kunstmest, niet met handelen op de beurs....

BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 14:54

www.rabobank.com.au/knowledge/agribus...

BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 14:56

quote:
BultiesBrothers schreef op 8 maart 2022 14:54:
www.rabobank.com.au/knowledge/agribus...

About to Get Uglier
Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has put a major dent in the likelihood of local urea prices
significantly declining ahead of the winter and spring application period. We now expect
global urea prices will increase again to levels just below the November peak for the next
couple of months, before tapering once again by mid-year.
Fertiliser markets are likely to be impacted by the crisis in three ways:
1. Export capacity: Russia itself is a major exporter of fertilisers, especially of ammonium nitrate
(46% of global exports), ammonia (23%), urea (15%) and mono-ammonium phosphate (MAP)
(14%). With the addition of Belarus, a total of 40% of global Muriate of Potash exports come
from the region.
Although we are yet to see any official sanctions on fertilisers, the impact of other sanctions,
such as the removal of Russian Banks from the SWIFT payments system, is highly likely to
reduce the ability of importers to purchase products, even if they could get it out of the region
(see 2).
2. Port Access: Many ports across the Black Sea region are now closed. Shipping lines are also
avoiding Baltic ports due to the high war insurance premiums and the risk ships may get stuck
in the region.
3. Gas Supply: The Nord Stream 2 pipeline has been halted and EU gas prices again have
escalated. Russia typically supplies about one third of the EU’s natural gas. Given natural gas is
the main feedstock for urea, high natural gas prices may elevate urea prices once again.

Dubbeldip 8 maart 2022 15:20

quote:
objectief schreef op 8 maart 2022 14:34:
[...]

Gezien de koers van OCI YTD gestegen is en die van andere bedrijven soms zelfs meer dan 25% gedaald; constateer ik dat dit bedrijf al maximaal profiteert. Als je nog meer verwacht, dan kan het deksel zomaar op je neus vallen.

Vreemde beredenering. Zo kun je ook zeggen: Gezien de koers van CF Industries meer dan 35% YTD of op 6 maanden niveau 120% gestegen is constateer ik dat OCI minimaal profiteert. Glas halfleeg of halfvol?

Zoals BB zegt, OCI doet in kunstmest niet in beurshandel

HD_Erik 8 maart 2022 15:23

quote:
BultiesBrothers schreef op 8 maart 2022 14:54:
www.rabobank.com.au/knowledge/agribus...

A further escalation and recent heavy
sanctions on Russia, which will disrupt
Russian exports of grains, energy and
fertilisers, is only to a limited extent
priced in and could still drive prices up.

BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 15:32

Nou fingers crossed of CF ons mee naar beneden trekt.

BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 15:56

quote:
BultiesBrothers schreef op 8 maart 2022 15:32:
Nou fingers crossed of CF ons mee naar beneden trekt.

En ons niet meer omhoog meetrekt.

Dubbeldip 8 maart 2022 15:57

quote:
BultiesBrothers schreef op 8 maart 2022 15:56:
[...]

En ons niet meer omhoog meetrekt.

haha nee dat moeten we OCI nog leren

BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 16:51

Hoelang moeten we deze ellende nog aanzien zeg..
Die f*ck*ng gaps ook altijd en de algo's die het altijd willen dichten.

Dubbeldip 8 maart 2022 17:37

Gelukkig staat CF weer bijna op 100...

Just lucky 8 maart 2022 17:38

quote:
BultiesBrothers schreef op 8 maart 2022 16:51:
Hoelang moeten we deze ellende nog aanzien zeg..
Die f*ck*ng gaps ook altijd en de algo's die het altijd willen dichten.

CF stoomt gewoon door, dik in de plus, 100 aangetikt.

BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 18:27

Zo. Goeie volatiliteit daar in de VS..nu weer rood

Just lucky 8 maart 2022 18:57

quote:
BultiesBrothers schreef op 8 maart 2022 18:27:
Zo. Goeie volatiliteit daar in de VS..nu weer rood

Wat is er aan de hand, indices schieten omhoog en CF implodeert?

BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 19:02

Hopelijk even een intraday bear trap...
Lees geen dingen over dat Rusland weer gaat exporteren..

BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 19:08

www.palmharbourcapital.com/files/PHC%...

Heel interessant om door te lezen!
Doorscrollen naar beneden.

BultiesBrothers 8 maart 2022 19:17

OCI NV (OCI NA)
We introduced OCI NV in our first letter which was for the second quarter of 2019. We
think everything we wrote at the time remains highly relevant. Well, two and half years
later the shares are only modestly higher, hurting overall fund performance (and having
traded as much as 50% lower during much of 2020) and yet it remains one of our fund’s
largest positions. Let’s review some of the pertinent points.
• Demand for Methanol and ammonia, both used in industrial processes, began
to weaken in late 2019, this was of course exacerbated by Covid-19 in 2020 and
led to a plunge in prices., not helped by the major feedstock natural gas price
collapsing. Despite this and significant plant turnarounds, EBITDA in the
methanol business was 40% higher in 2020 than in 2019. This was due to a
disciplined market, which took out capacity and shutout high-cost players.
Industrial demand came roaring back quickly. Natural gas and oil also recovered
and even went far higher than pre-COVID levels. This has led to 2021 EBITDA in
only the first three quarters to be over 100% higher than all of 2020 as prices
improved drastically.
• Demand for urea and other nitrogen-based fertilizers were little impacted by
COVID, however natural gas and coal prices fluctuated with lower prices early
in 2020 pushing prices to multiyear lows. More importantly for OCI, a flood of
cheap LNG into Europe, for a very short period flipped global cost curves as
their fixed priced North African and Middle East contracts temporarily hurt them.
This of course reversed quickly and now prices have skyrocketed around the
globe but particularly in Asia and Europe. Higher gas prices have propelled
nitrogen fertilizer prices dramatically (think $226/ton in the second quarter of
2020 to as high as $1000 in the fourth quarter of 2021). Nitrogen fertilizer EBITDA
is some 60% higher in only the first three quarters of 2021 versus 2020. China and
Russia have put export quotas on some fertilizers as they seek to protect local
farmers. China’s coal prices have also soared higher as not only environmental
Page 7
Palm Harbour Capital LLP
info@palmharbourcapital.com
www.palmharbourcapital.com
issues but also their political relationship with Australia and Indonesian shortages
affects coal prices and puts their consolidating coal to urea producers out of
action in the global markets.
• Not only did COVID affect energy markets in strange ways, but it has also
delayed projects so additional capacity is limited and transport costs have also
put a premium on local supplies.
• Another factor buoying the market is corn prices (and other agricultural products
that require nitrogen). Corn ended its decade long bear market and is up over
100% from the lows in 2020. This is due to lower plantings in the US, drought in
Brazil, globally low inventories, strong Chinese demand due to African Swine
Fever having killed off their pig herds, which they now need to be rebuilt as well
as strong demand for ethanol. This has fattened farmer pockets and enabled
them to buy more fertilizers to seek better yields.
• Another potential source of growth for both ammonia (the precursor to urea) and
methanol is the greenification of the energy market. Both have been touted as
potential candidates to replace bunker fuel in the maritime industry and act as a
carrier for green hydrogen for other energy uses. This is in the early stages of
development but could potentially add another leg to the supply/demand story.
• The past four quarters of high product prices and strong production has led to
significant cash flows. The company has done several deals (as we alluded to in
our original write up), which are leading to significant cash-ins. This in turn is
leading to a significantly stronger balance sheet. The company had above 5x net
debt to trailing EBITDA in late 2019 and early 2020 with around $5 billion of gross
debt. This is now drastically different as EBITDA has soared and gross debt has
plunged. At the end of the third quarter this metric was at only 1.7x with gross
debt of about $3.8 billion. it is likely to be even lower come the end of the year
as the recent deals bring in significant cash. This is especially the case when we
look at the holding company level.
When we first wrote about OCI we mentioned a JV they had formed with ADNOC
combining their North African assets with ADNOC’s Abu Dhabi plants. This company
has subsequently refinanced itself allowing for a special dividend of about $1.2 billion,
of which 58% or $675 million goes to OCI holding company. The partners then listed
Fertiglobe on the Abu Dhabi stock exchange leading to IPO proceeds for OCI’s 8% stake
sold of $461 million. Now as OCI consolidates Fertiglobe, the net debt picture is not
changed by levering Fertiglobe. However, if we strip Fertigloble out and take the
consolidated net debt of OCI at the end of the third quarter and subtract Fertigloble’s
adjusted net debt post transaction of around $1.1 billion and then subtract the IPO
proceeds we get less than $750 dollars of net debt at the Holdco and keeping
Fertigloble separate, an equity value of their 50% stake of roughly $4 billion (compared
to OCI’s equity market cap of $5.5 billion at year-end).
Page 8
Palm Harbour Capital LLP
info@palmharbourcapital.com
www.palmharbourcapital.com
When we first wrote we also mentioned Saudi interest in the methanol business. This
deal unfortunately never happened as it was rumored at a very attractive price for the
full business. However, recently OCI sold a 15% stake in the business to ADQ and Alpha
Dhabi Holdings for $375 million implying a price of $2.5 billion for the whole business
(6.8x trailing EV/EBITDA). This is another $375 million cash in at the Holdco level
reducing net debt further to less than $400 million.
Given that we have a market price value for Fertiglobe, which looks reasonable based
on peers, cash flows and EV per ton of ammonia equivalent capacity, the recent
transaction in the methanol business, and reasonable EBITDA and cash flow multiples
on the US and European nitrogen businesses, we can put together a sum-of-the parts.
We come up with a very conservative 60% upside. Just take equity values, with
Fertiglobe’s 50% stake at $4 billion and the remaining Methanol at $2.1 billion, that leaves
the US and European nitrogen businesses with an implied negative $650 million value
despite minimal debt. Just looking at CF Industries and Yara we find a negative equity
value a bit unreasonable. The US plant cost over $4 billion to build and is situated in a
highly desirable location.
Another way to look at it is on a pure cash flow basis. Let’s look at 2023 and 2024 when
prices come back to earth. We reckon they can still do $700 million of free cash flow,
after minorities. On a $5.5 billion market cap that is a 12.7% yield. Given the holding
company will be net cash sometime in 2022 (ignoring any potential dividend payments)
we think most of that can be paid out to shareholders. This could easily imply a stock
price 100% higher.
OCI is still an advantaged commodity player. Yes, there are risks and in the short-term
many things can happen as COVID has demonstrated but we think on a normalized
basis the stock should trade between 50-100% higher. Given the owner and his track
record, we are sure this value will eventually be realized.

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Vertraagd	25 apr 2024 17:35
Koers	24,800
Verschil	-0,110 (-0,44%)
Hoog	25,180
Laag	24,660
Volume	250.302
Volume gemiddeld	395.607
Volume gisteren	203.508

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