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Nevsun heeft koper, zink en veel cash

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seadoc 14 februari 2017 19:56

Blijft toch al wel een hele tijd hangen tussen 3,70 en 4,50 cad. Misschien wel aardig om te traden...

DeZwarteRidder 14 februari 2017 21:42

quote:
seadoc schreef op 14 februari 2017 19:56:
Blijft toch al wel een hele tijd hangen tussen 3,70 en 4,50 cad. Misschien wel aardig om te traden...

Nevsun is enorm achtergebleven bij de stijgingen van de koper- en zinkprijzen.
Vroeg of laat zal Nevsun dit moeten inhalen.

smith&jones 15 februari 2017 12:16

Niet zonder meer: Zo'n grote vondst is het nou ook weer niet en ze hebben kennelijk transitieproblemen.

Met 200m cash bouw je ook geen mijn, dus het wordt of weer een mega-emissie zoals een paar maanden geleden (50% dilution maar liefst, 100m aandelen gecreëerd op 200m uitstaande aandelen), of een extra JV, of een lening.

De vooruitzichten zijn niet slecht en het management is creatief, maar de koers is best hoog al voor wat het is...

S&J

DeZwarteRidder 15 februari 2017 14:56

new from seeking alpha
Summary

Lower-than-expected zinc concentrate grades at Bisha continue to weigh on share price.

Prefeasibility Study expected at Timok's Upper Zone in Q3 2017.

Opportunity to bring Timok to production by 2020 without equity dilution.

Nevsun Resources (NYSEMKT:NSU)

Featured In: January 2015

Partnership Average Cost per Share: US$3.07

Current Market Price (February 9, 2017): US$3.12

Nevsun was our featured investment in January 2015. The company remains the most undervalued mid-tier base metal producer on the market. While there is near-term downside risk due to metallurgical issues at the company's Bisha Mine, the market has yet to grasp the immense value of the company's recently purchased Timok Project in Serbia. For those with a three-year time horizon, NSU shares are a steal at these levels.

In an otherwise excellent year, Nevsun announced in October 2016 that recoveries of zinc and copper from the concentrate circuit at Bisha are well below expectations. An announcement in early January confirmed that these issues have not been fully resolved, and a more comprehensive update is expected in late February when the company releases its financials.

Nevsun commenced zinc production less than six months ago, and these types of start-up difficulties are common. However, the issue will continue to weigh on the NSU share price until the company can announce concentrate grades of ~55%. (The company's average concentrate grade was 40% in 2016.) This will be a key catalyst for 2017.

While Bisha will remain a cash flow machine, the majority of future value creation will come from the company's Timok Project. Just last month, the company reported the following infill results from Timok's "Upper Zone":

image: staticseekingalpha.a.ssl.fastly.net/u...

These results remind us how special this deposit really is. Keep in mind that the average grade for producing copper mines globally is below 0.5%. Timok has the potential to be an exceptionally economic mine.

The next major milestone at Timok is a Prefeasibility Study, which is expected in Q3 2017. A PEA released in April 2016 projected a post-tax NPV of US$1.3B and an IRR of 96% at current metal prices. The upcoming PFS will show similar, if not better, numbers. Keep in mind that the PFS will only include the 100%-owned Upper Zone, as Nevsun also owns ~50% of the project's much larger Lower Zone.

Nevsun management has provided the following milestone expectations in recent news releases:

Maiden resource at Asheli deposit (located near Bisha Mine) by end of Q1 2017

Completion of 30k meter drill program at Timok's Upper Zone by end of Q2 2017

Prefeasibility Study announced at Timok's Upper Zone by end of Q3 2017

Company announces new CEO by end of 2017

Maiden Resource at Timok's Lower Zone by end of 2017

Completion of underground exploration decline at Bisha by end of 2017

Completion of underground exploration decline at Timok by end of Q1 2018

Feasibility Study announced at Timok's Upper Zone by end of 2018

2017 is set to be a busy year - with news flow expected from Bisha, Timok's Upper Zone, and Timok's Lower Zone. I believe that the Prefeasibility Study at Timok's Upper Zone will prove to be the most significant catalyst in 2017, assuming the company can replicate the stunning economics seen in the April 2016 PEA.

Nevsun currently has no debt and roughly US$200M in the bank. Considering future cash flow from Bisha, the company should be able to finance initial capex at Timok (expected to be US$213M) without any equity dilution. If management is able to execute as they have in the past, we'll have a US$10 stock when Timok commences production in late 2019.

Disclosure: I am/we are long NSU.

I wrote this article myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it (other than from Seeking Alpha). I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is mentioned in this article.

Read more at www.stockhouse.com/companies/bullboar...

DeZwarteRidder 15 februari 2017 17:47

quote:
smith&jones schreef op 15 februari 2017 12:16:
Niet zonder meer: Zo'n grote vondst is het nou ook weer niet en ze hebben kennelijk transitieproblemen.

Met 200m cash bouw je ook geen mijn, dus het wordt of weer een mega-emissie zoals een paar maanden geleden (50% dilution maar liefst, 100m aandelen gecreëerd op 200m uitstaande aandelen), of een extra JV, of een lening.

De vooruitzichten zijn niet slecht en het management is creatief, maar de koers is best hoog al voor wat het is...
S&J

Ik verbaas me over jouw nogal slechte research en uit de lucht gegrepen veronderstellingen.
Dat had ik niet van jou verwacht.

smith&jones 15 februari 2017 19:51

Zie mijn vorige posts.
Enig realiteitsbesef had ik wel van jou verwacht.

Neem nu je post over NDM in 2015. Dat was wel degelijk goed gezien.

S&J.

DeZwarteRidder 16 februari 2017 14:01

Zinc’s time to shine
James Fraser, Miningstocksguide.com

Zinc was the second-best performing commodity in 2016, with a staggering 65.7% return.

The greyish metal primarily used in galvanizing steel is off to a hot start in 2017, up another 12.5% to $1.30/lb.

“For us zinc is still the most exciting story out there “ Don Lindsay, President and CEO, Teck (January 26, 2017)

The reason for the zinc price rise is one of the basic principles of economics - supply and demand.

Zinc inventories (supply) have been falling like a rock. Inventories last February on the LME were ~500,000 tonnes and are now down to ~380,000 tonnes.

Two of the largest zinc mines in the world have closed in the last few years (Century and Lisheen) due to ore depletion, removing ~4 % of world supply.

The world’s largest mining company, Glencore, significantly helped the zinc market as well cutting production by 500,000 tonnes in late 2015. The cuts were made because of the low price of zinc at the time. Glencore has yet to restart production at these mines and this will be a major factor for investors in zinc to keep an eye on.

Zinc demand has steadily increased throughout the last several years and and is expected to increase by 2.1% to 13.85 million tonnes in 2017.

Read more at www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2017...

DeZwarteRidder 16 februari 2017 14:02

The next two years, 2016 and 2017, represent the ‘pinch point’ of concentrate supply, with mine-closure related cuts expected to outweigh new output from projects.” Wood Mackenzie Analyst, Jonathan Leng.

Zinc price forecasts

Scotiabank is forecasting zinc prices to average $1.35/lb in 2017 and $1.55/lb in 2018.
Wood Mackenzie, a leading research firm has a peak price target of $4000 US/tonne ($1.80 per lb) in 2018.
Bank of Montreal has forecasted an average price of $1.50 per lb from 2017-2019.

If these forecasts are anywhere near correct, the zinc price still has tremendous upside from current levels.

The best way for investors to play a zinc price move would be to invest in zinc equities.

“I definitely think it is the right time to do so [invest in the zinc market]. About the only way to do so is through zinc equities, whether you’re looking at the major producers or some of the junior explorers there are not a lot of options out there for zinc.” Brien Lundin, editor of the Gold Newsletter

Investors have three different ways to play an investment in zinc stocks - producers, developers, and explorers.

Here are 3 companies on my radar.

Producers

Investors looking for a large cap company in the zinc space would have to have Teck (TCK.B:TSX) on the top of their list. Teck is the world’s third largest zinc producer and receives approximately ? of its revenue from zinc.

Taking a step down and looking for a cheaper option in the mid-cap range would be Trevali Mining (TV:TSX). Trevali is a pure-play zinc producer with two operating mines. Trevali produced ~98 million pounds of zinc in 2016, along with lead and silver.

Analyst Joseph Gallucci of Dundee Capital Markets has TV rated as a top pick on leverage to zinc and “based on current production, as well as short-term organic growth.” Bank of Montreal has just initiated coverage with analyst Alex Terentiew putting a $2 target price on Trevali shares.

Zinc developer

The team at Darnley Bay (DBL:TSX.V) realized that the zinc market was heading for a supply/demand deficit and started looking for development stage projects.

The team acquired two of the most advanced stage development projects in the world - Pine Point and Clear Lake. Kerry Knoll, Executive Chairman and director has had his eye on the Point Project for years and was excited to acquire a development stage project with resources in the ground.

Read more at www.stockhouse.com/news/newswire/2017...

DeZwarteRidder 20 februari 2017 12:53

Citi: Koper van $6000 naar $8000
38 min geleden

De prijs van koper schiet komende maanden omhoog. Analisten van Citigroup zien de prijs van het metaal net boven $6000 stijgen tot uiteindelijk $8000 per ton.

Vanwege de doorzettende staking bij de tweede mijn van Chili, een van de grootste producenten ter wereld, is koper al fors duurder geworden.

Afname van productie van Freeport McMoran in Indonesische mijnen heeft de prijs een extra zet gegeven.

Daarbij komt volgens ABN Amro dat tegelijkertijd de vraag vanuit China, de grootste afnemer, is aangetrokken. Ook maandag gingen de futures voor levering van LME Copper opnieuw 1% omhoog.

Goede voorspeller

Koper, veel gebruikt in kabels en stroombekabeling, geldt als het metaal dat het beste de op- en neergang van de economie voorspelt. Voor dit jaar komt er zeker nog $1000 per ton.

Na veel jaren van stagnatie van de economie, herstelt die wereldwijd. En daarmee ook de vraag naar koper, aldus Citi in een notitie. Vorig jaar steeg koper al met 18%. Dat veel mijnbouwers niet meer investeren in exploratie van nieuwe mijnen betekent dat ook komend jaar vraag en aanbod voor een hogere prijs zullen zorgen, aldus analisten van Goldman Sachs.

seadoc 20 februari 2017 22:12

tussenstandje: ivn: 4,86 nsu: 3,95.

DeZwarteRidder 21 februari 2017 07:41

quote:
seadoc schreef op 20 februari 2017 22:12:
tussenstandje: ivn: 4,86 nsu: 3,95.

Toen ik het enige echte IvanhoeMines-draadje geopend heb, was de koers van IVN 1,02 CAD.

www.iex.nl/Forum/Topic/1323415/Gronds...

smith&jones 21 februari 2017 16:34

Inderdaad goed gezien. Wat een 'enige echt' draadje is weet ik niet. IVN is volgens mij al meerdere malen voorbij gekomen nog voor 2015, echter wellicht niet in een apart draadje inderdaad.

Hopelijk heb je ze nog: IVN inmiddels door de $5,00, inmiddels $5,10
NSU blijft vooralsnog kwakkelen rond de 3.00, maar wie weet.

S&J

S&J.

[verwijderd] 21 februari 2017 16:53

quote:
smith&jones schreef op 21 februari 2017 16:34:
Inderdaad goed gezien. Wat een 'enige echt' draadje is weet ik niet. IVN is volgens mij al meerdere malen voorbij gekomen nog voor 2015, echter wellicht niet in een apart draadje inderdaad.

Hopelijk heb je ze nog: IVN inmiddels door de $5,00, inmiddels $5,10
NSU blijft vooralsnog kwakkelen rond de 3.00, maar wie weet.

S&J

S&J.

op exeter draadje hadden we t ook over IVANHOE.

Gaat niet slecht:-)

smith&jones 23 februari 2017 22:19

Probleem met NSU is toch met name de timing lijkt me: 2020 is gewoon nog een lange tijd te gaan, terwijl IVN in verhouding tot NSU enorme resources online begint te krijgen rond eind 2017.

Bovendien: werkende kopermijnen van IVN formaat wereldwijd zijn on hold gesteld toen de prijs door het putje ging, en die zijn relatief makkelijk weer op te starten.
Dat kost even tijd maar een stabilisatie van de koperprijs zal niet langer duren dan einde 2017 zou je zeggen. Dan komt er giga productiecapaciteit bij. IVN gaat het misschien nog net halen om op deze kopergolf mee te surfen.

De huidige squeeze in de koperprijzen is waarschijnlijk alweer allang voorbij wanneer Timok echt in productie gaat.

Just my two (copper) cents...

S&J.

smith&jones 23 februari 2017 22:22

NDM trouwens helemaal kapotgeshort, maar de squeeze kondigde zich aan vandaag: iets van 20% up al.

S&J.

seadoc 24 februari 2017 17:24

nieuws: www.stockhouse.com/news/press-release...
Spijt dat ik geen stink-bidje op 3,20 had staan...

DeZwarteRidder 24 februari 2017 17:30

T.NSU | 16 hours ago

Canada NewsWire

VANCOUVER, Feb. 23, 2017

VANCOUVER, Feb. 23, 2017 /CNW/ - Nevsun Resources Ltd. (TSX:NSU) (NYSE MKT:NSU) (Nevsun or the Company) today reported its financial and operating results for the year ended December 31, 2016 and its outlook for 2017. Nevsun also announced that its Board of Directors is redeploying approximately $120 million over a four-year period from its corporate dividend toward development of the Timok high-grade copper-gold project in Serbia. Nevsun has determined that the development of the Timok Upper Zone represents by far the Company's best allocation of capital.

Unless otherwise noted all dollar amounts are in millions of US dollars, with the exception of earnings per share, dividend rate per share and realized price figures.

Effective with the first quarter of 2017, the quarterly dividend rate will be $0.01 per share. On an annualized basis, the cash cost of the dividend at the new rate will be approximately $10 million (based on the number of outstanding common shares and recent dividend re-investment participation rate) compared with $40 million previously.

Cliff Davis, Nevsun CEO commented, "The transformation of Nevsun to a geographically diversified base metals producer is well underway. The Bisha Mine in Eritrea remains an important cash flow generator and the high-grade Timok Upper Zone development, which gives Nevsun market leading growth, is rapidly advancing. We have made significant progress toward the next key Timok Upper Zone milestones. We expect to deliver a Pre-Feasibility Study on Timok in September and to break ground on the decline in the fourth quarter.

The dividend decision will help Nevsun fund Timok while preserving a strong balance sheet. With anticipated production in 2021 from the Timok Upper Zone, we will be re-allocating approximately $120 million of capital over the next four years toward growth. Consistent with our beliefs, Nevsun retains a peer leading current yield of 1.3%.

We continue to have strong support from our host country governments and other stakeholders and look forward to a productive 2017."

Full year 2016 highlights

Continued first quartile safety performance at Bisha;

Completed the acquisition of Reservoir, which included the high-grade copper-gold Timok Project;

Advanced the Timok Project Upper Zone pre-feasibility study with commencement of a major drilling program and technical studies;

Completed the acquisition of significant additional exploration licenses in the Bisha District;

Delivered the Bisha zinc expansion project on time and under budget;

Successfully commissioned the Bisha zinc expansion circuit, declared commercial production on October 1, 2016, and produced 90.2 million pounds of zinc in concentrate;

Sold 90,000 gold equivalent ounces from stockpiles;

Supergene copper production of 55.8 million pounds at a C1 cash cost of $1.04 per payable pound sold;

Generated earnings per share attributable to Nevsun shareholders of $0.04, and $80 million in operating income; and

Paid quarterly dividend of $0.04 per share and implemented a dividend reinvestment plan.

Read more at www.stockhouse.com/news/press-release...

DeZwarteRidder 24 februari 2017 17:32

017 Outlook Highlights

Maintain top quartile safety performance

Timok Upper Zone Copper-Gold Project
Deliver pre-feasibility study in September 2017, with an initial reserve
Obtain necessary permits and begin decline development in Q4 2017
Rapidly advance overall project to production in 2021

Bisha Zinc-Copper Mine
Produce 200 to 230 million pounds of zinc
Produce 10 to 20 million pounds of copper
Monetize 10,000 gold equivalent ounces from stockpiles

Exploration
Complete 130,000 metres of budgeted exploration and development drilling
Update Bisha resource and reserve in Q2 2017 including indicative underground study

Continue paying a quarterly dividend at the new rate

Outlook: Timok Copper-Gold Project

The Company expects to invest $45 million at the Timok Upper Zone Project during 2017. The pre-feasibility study remains on budget and on time for delivery in September 2017. There has been significant progress toward the other key 2017 milestone, commencing the decline in Q4 2017. The Company has completed approximately half of the required decline permitting obligations to date and will begin the tendering process for the decline construction during Q2 2017. Other key Upper Zone activities, including the Environmental Impact Assessment (EIA) and land acquisition, are progressing well. Keeping the Upper Zone on track for production in 2021 is Nevsun's top priority.

For Timok Lower Zone porphyry exploration, drilling the planned approximate 60,000 metre, $20 million program continues. Expenditure in 2017 is estimated at $17 million. Freeport-McMoRan, the joint venture partner on the Lower Zone project, continues to work with Nevsun to design and execute the program.

Outlook: Bisha Zinc-Copper Mine

Nevsun expects Bisha to process 2.4 million tonnes of primary ore with zinc and copper feed grades of 6.0% and 1.0% respectively. As previously disclosed, in Q4 2016 Bisha was able to produce a bulk concentrate in the copper circuit but was unable to consistently produce a saleable copper concentrate. However there has been more recent success in producing a saleable concentrate in early 2017 after various plant modifications and procedural changes, and progressive learnings from the recent geo-metallurgy program over the past 4 to 5 months. While no definitive sustainable solution has been achieved as yet, the ongoing test work by Bisha management and two separate external specialist companies continues to facilitate improvements in the overall approach to processing the variable ore that has been encountered thus far during the primary phase. Progressive improvements in copper concentrate production are expected throughout the year which allows for some upside, and Bisha will plan in future years to produce the feasibility levels of copper and zinc concentrates. Our objective remains to achieve 40 to 50 million pounds of annual copper in concentrate production during 2018 and beyond.

During 2017, Nevsun expects zinc and copper recoveries in both circuits to average 70% and 60% respectively during months where bulk concentrate is being produced in the copper circuit and about 75% each during months when saleable copper concentrate is produced in the copper circuit. The above production guidance assumes a minimum of three months and a maximum of six months of saleable copper concentrate production.

The Company estimates C1 cash cost of $0.70 to $0.90 per payable pound of zinc and $0.90 to $1.10 per payable pound of copper on a co-product basis. C1 cash costs determined on a co-product basis require common costs to be allocated to each concentrate. The method to allocate common costs is based on the ratio of payable production volume, multiplied by budgeted metals prices. Until a saleable copper concentrate is consistently produced, the zinc co-product costs will remain high, due to a greater share of the cost allocation.

The updated geo-metallurgy drilling results from 2016 continue to be analyzed and will be reflected in an updated Mineral Reserves estimate for Bisha which is expected to be released in late Q2 2017. The new associated 43-101 technical report is expected to include an updated scoping study for potential underground mining at Bisha.

Sustaining capital at Bisha is estimated at $26 million for 2017 including $11 million for a tailings dam lift, $10 million for exploration and continued work on the underground feasibility study.

Outlook: Exploration

The Company is planning to drill over 130,000 metres during 2017 across three countries. Approximately 90,000 metres will be drilled in Serbia at the Timok Upper Zone, the Timok Lower Zone and Tilva, the latter two which are joint ventures with Freeport-McMoRan and Rio Tinto respectively.

Another 40,000 metres of exploration drilling is planned in Eritrea. Another critical activity to be completed in Eritrea during Q1 2017 is the completion of an airborne geophysical (VTEM) survey to identify shallow greenfield targets on the expanded Bisha exploration licenses.

Read more at www.stockhouse.com/news/press-release...

smith&jones 24 februari 2017 22:25

quote:
seadoc schreef op 24 februari 2017 17:24:
nieuws: www.stockhouse.com/news/press-release...
Spijt dat ik geen stink-bidje op 3,20 had staan...

weet je het zeker?

www.seekingalpha.com/news/3246456

Da's het verschil tussen de PR spin van een bedrijf, en de realiteit....
NSU terecht 7,5% onderuit vandaag....
Cashflow terdege aangetast door transitieproblemen, en dividend zoals eerder verwacht niet sustainable.

S&J.

seadoc 25 februari 2017 20:10

Dat dividend kan me gestolen worden. Die cashflow is een wat ander verhaal. Maar toch, op 3,20 wil ik ze wel hebben.
Als ik een grote koperproducent was en mijn resources moeten worden aangevuld, dan zou ik best interesse hebben in Timok. Dat ding in tokkiewokkieland staat me wat meer tegen, maar daar zijn vast ook liefhebbers voor.

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