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Tot hoever stijgt de olieprijs?

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Iran’s oil output to fall to record-low level in May – IEA

Sputnik reported that earlier this month, Tehran vowed response if its interests in the Organisation of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) are damaged, adding that the organisation itself is damaged by “the unilateralism of some of its members and that it's possible that the organisation may collapse”.

According to a monthly report issued by the International Energy Agency, Iran's oil production could slump in May to its record-low level since the 1980s.

The report also detailed the agency's forecast for global oil demand growth in 2019 which is predicted to be reduced by 90,000 barrels per day to 1.3 million barrels per day.

Meanwhile, the report stated that the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) complied with the deal on production cuts in April by 131 percent.

"In April, OPEC crude output rose for the first time in four months as higher supply from Libya, Nigeria and Iraq more than made up for a significant loss in Iran. Production rose 60 kb/d m-o-m [month-on-month] to 30.21 mb/d, but was down 1.21 mb/d on a year ago," the IEA added.

Source : Sputnik
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Poland's PKN expects to receive normal quality oil from Russia soon - Mr Leszczynski

Mr Zbigniew Leszczynski deputy CEO of PKN Orlen said, said that Poland's state-run oil refiner PKN Orlen expects to receive normal quality product from Russia within the next fortnight. He said that "We are counting that in the next dozen or so days we will receive normal quality product (from Russia)."

Source : Reuters
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Saudi Arabia says pipeline sabotage targets kingdom, global oil supply

Saudi Arabia's cabinet said sabotage operations against two East-West oil pipeline pumping stations on Tuesday targeted not only the kingdom but the security of global oil supplies and the world economy. The cabinet, after a meeting headed by Saudi Arabia's King Salman, stressed in a statement "the importance of standing against all terrorist organisations that carry out such acts of sabotage, including Iranian-backed Houthi militias".

Source : Reuters
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Olieprijs licht omlaag

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) De olieprijs is vrijdag licht gedaald na drie opeenvolgende sessies waarin sprake was van een stijging. Op een settlement van 62,76 dollar werd een vat West Texas Intermediate 0,2 procent minder waard ten opzichte van donderdag.

Op weekbasis steeg de olieprijs bijna twee procent, waarbij geopolitieke spanningen tussen de VS en Iran enerzijds en de handelsoorlog met China anderzijds het sentiment bepaalden.

De spanningen in het Midden-Oosten liepen deze week op nadat twee Saoedische olietankers vorig weekend werden aangevallen in de Straat van Hormuz in de Perzische Golf en Saoedische olievelden met drones werden aangevallen. De VS denkt dat Iran achter de aanvallen zit, iets dat Teheran nadrukkelijk ontkent.

De toenemende militaire spanningen in de Perzische Golf verhogen de onzekerheid over het aanbod binnen de oliemarkt, volgens analisten, zeker omdat Iran en Venezuela al minder olie leveren vanwege Amerikaanse sancties en Libië vanwege de opgelaaide burgeroorlog.

De drie landen zijn gevrijwaard van de productie-verlagingen die de OPEC heeft afgesproken. Het is voor de markt vooral wachten op de volgende bijeenkomst van het kartel volgende maand om te zien of Saoedi-Arabië en andere grote olieproducenten besluiten om de productieafspraken te verlengen.

Dit weekend komen een aantal OPEC-landen al bijeen om een voorschot te nemen op de aanstaande vergadering van het kartel. Een concreet besluit wordt niet verwacht maar mogelijk komen er wel aanbevelingen die worden meegenomen naar die bijeenkomst in Wenen.

Door: ABM Financial News.
info@abmfn.nl
Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved.
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Olieprijzen omhoog na geluiden OPEC

Gepubliceerd op 20 mei 2019 om 08:28 | Views: 2.937

JEDDAH (AFN/BLOOMBERG) - De olieprijzen gingen maandagochtend omhoog. Afgelopen weekend zinspeelden meerdere OPEC-leden om de geldende productiebeperking in ieder geval in stand te houden bij de aankomende vergadering van het oliekartel in juni.

De olieminister van Saudi-Arabië zei dat de voorraden nog ''in overvloed'' zijn en verder moeten krimpen. Zijn collega van de Verenigde Arabische Emiraten zei eveneens dat de OPEC meer moet doen om vraag en aanbod van olie in balans te houden. De OPEC besloot afgelopen jaar tot een productiebeperking op zo de prijzen te stutten. Kenners gaan er in doorsnee van uit dat de productiebeperking tot het einde van dit jaar gehandhaafd blijft.

De prijs van een vat Brentolie kostte 1,2 procent meer op 73,06 dollar ten opzichte van het slot op vrijdag. De Amerikaanse olie is 1,1 procent duurder en kost 63,46 dollar per vat.
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India’s crude import bill will increase despite numerous measures - Moody’s

A Moody’s report said that India’s crude import bill will surge despite numerous measures by successive governments to reduce dependence. India’s oil and gas consumption will support its investments in refining capacity and upstream production but crude imports will keep growing amid stagnant production. India imports nearly 80 per cent of its oil requirement, which makes it highly dependent on imported oil and hence susceptible to wild fluctuations in the international oil market.

The government’s push towards electric vehicles to reduce dependence on imported oil was also not seen to be bearing fruit in the near term. Moody’s commented "Even though the government is encouraging faster adoption and manufacturing of electric vehicles, the response has not been great because of a lack of high-quality, affordable vehicles and the evolving charging infrastructure."

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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China allocates 2nd batch of 2019 oil product export quotas, raises YTD total 5% - Platts

According to documents seen by S&P Global Platts, China’s Ministry of Commerce has allocated the long-awaited second batch of oil product export quotas under the general trade route for 2019, totaling 23.79 million metric tonne, to five state-owned oil companies. The new quotas have brought the total oil product export quotas allocated under both the processing and general trade routes to 45.29 million metric tonne so far this year, up 5.3% from 43 million metric tonne in the same period last year.

However, the year-to-date quota volume for 2019 accounts for 98.3% of the total actual exports of gasoline, gasoil and jet fuel of 46.08 million metric tonne in 2018.

In the second round, Beijing has allocated export quotas for 9.09 million metric tonne of gasoline, 9.175 million metric tonne of gasoil and 5.525 million metric tonne of jet fuel under the general trade route to the country’s five state-owned oil companies — CNPC, Sinopec, CNOOC, Sinochem and China National Aviation Fuel.

The total quota volume in the second batch of 23.79 million mt, was slightly lower than the 28.39 million mt expected by industry sources since early May. The second batch of export quotas under the processing trade route is likely to be issued soon.

Beijing controls exports by oil companies via quotas. It was not immediately clear when the government will release the third round of export quotas under the general trade route. In 2018, the third round was allocated on October 26.

In Q1 2019, the country exported 13.98 million metric tonne of the three key oil products, up 21% YoY.

Source : Platts
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US policy cranks up the risks to oil supply and price - Oils Research

Geopolitics is never far from the fray. The oil market was chronically oversupplied a few months ago. Now Brent is back over USD 70/bbl as tension builds around some of OPEC’s bigger producers. Could prices go higher? For the answer, I turned to Ann-Louise Hittle, VP Oils Research.

Q - What worries you most in the short term?

A - Rising geopolitical tension around Iran. The end of sanctions waivers will reduce exports from around 1.2 million b/d today to 0.7 million b/d this summer. That’s less than a third of what they were selling in 2017, and takes another 0.4-0.5 million b/d out of global supply, with only China and India still prepared to buy Iranian crude. Should the US succeed in its goal to reduce Iran’s exports to zero, it would worsen supply tightness materially. The other big concern is that as economic pressure bubbles up, Iran responds to US pressure with a knock-on effect for regional stability.

Q - What about Venezuela and Libya?

A - The stalemate in Venezuela looks set to be protracted and the recovery of supply slower. We’ve cut our 2020 forecast to 0.83 million b/d, flat on 2019. So, through next year, Venezuelan production is a third of what it was in 2014. As for Libya, we just reduced our 2019 forecasts by 50 kb/d to 0.9 million b/d. The escalating civil war there shouldn’t be underestimated as a risk to global supply.

Meantime, the US keeps pumping

Yes, and dominating non-OPEC production growth. We forecast 1.9 million b/d of US liquids growth in 2019, only marginally down on last year’s phenomenal 2.2 million b/d. The Permian is the driving force, contributing two-thirds of this year’s increase. The bidding war for Anadarko underlines the attraction of Permian tight oil growth to Big Oil, and we’ll see more consolidation. The bigger companies have access to capital and have only just begun to industrialise the play. Permian volumes will grow year-on-year for the foreseeable future.

Q - Is the rest of non-OPEC growing, too?

A - Overall, yes. Production outside the US stagnated in the immediate aftermath of the price crash. The industry adapted and cut costs, and supply is growing again. We forecast non-OPEC production outside the US to increase from 2018 by 1.2 million b/d by 2020, almost half what the US will deliver. The bulk is from new projects in Brazil, Canada, Australia and Norway.

Source : Wood Mackenzie
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Russian Transneft to compensate all parties for dirty oil damages - Mr Kozak

Reuters citing, Russia's Deputy Prime Minister Mr Dmitry Kozak, as saying that Russian oil pipeline monopoly Transneft would provide compensation to all parties that could prove real damages from contaminated oil. Russia halted oil flows along the Druzhba pipeline to Eastern Europe and Germany in April because of contaminated crude, contributing to a rise in global oil prices and leaving refiners in Europe scrambling to find supplies.

Mr Kozak said that it could take three to four weeks to get a full assessment of the cost of the damages and size of compensation required.

Source : Reuters
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Saudi Aramco to supply an extra 2 million barrels per month to IOC from July

An IOC executive said, as New Delhi seeks to make up for a loss in supplies from Iran, Saudi Aramco will supply state-run Indian Oil Corp Ltd (IOC) an extra 2 million barrels of crude a month from July to December. Saudi Arabia approached Indian buyers last month offering them additional supplies to compensate for lost Iranian oil after US sanctions kicked in. The United States, which imposed new sanctions on Iran in November, initially gave Indian and seven other buyers a 6 month waiver to allow them to continue importing Iranian oil. Those waivers have not been renewed. IOC has a term deal to buy 5.6 million tonnes from Saudi Aramco in the financial year 2019/20 that started on April 1 and an option to buy additional 2 million tonnes.

Mr AK Sharma, IOC finance director, said that “We have told them we will be taking 2 million barrels every month for six months from July (about 1.6 million tonnes in total) and they have agreed.”

India, Iran’s top client after China, has close diplomatic ties with Iran but wants to work closely with the United States.

Source : Reuters
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Olieprijs hoger gesloten

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) De prijs voor een vat ruwe olie is maandag hoger gesloten, na het nieuws dat de OPEC zijn productieverminderingen waarschijnlijk tot eind 2019 zal verlengen.

OPEC en niet-OPEC-leden ontmoetten elkaar afgelopen zondag in het Saoedische Jeddah om in aanloop naar een top in juni in Wenen de productie-opties te bespreken. Afgelopen december besloot de groep om de productie collectief te verminderen met 1,2 miljoen vaten per dag, een maatregel die grotendeels ten grondslag ligt aan de stijging van de olieprijs sinds begin dit jaar. De overeenkomst loopt eind juni af.

De Saoedische minister van energie Khalid al-Falih zei tegen verslaggevers dat er onder de ministers steun is voor een verlenging van het akkoord. "Het heeft onze voorkeur om in de tweede helft van het jaar ons productiebeheer voor te zetten richting normale [voorraad] niveau's" zei al-Falih.

De steun van Rusland voor uitbreiding van de productie-inperking is echter nog onduidelijk, nadat de Russische minister van energie Alexander Novak zei dat olieproducenten naar "verschillende opties" kijken.

"De olieprijs is sinds begin dit jaar als zo'n 40 procent gestegen, voornamelijk dankzij de beperking van het aanbod door de OPEC. Investeerders waren nerveus dat de OPEC tijdens de volgende bijeenkomst in juni zou kunnen proberen de productielimieten te staken, in het licht van de mondiale verkrapping van het aanbod en hogere olieprijs", zei marktanalist Jasper Lawler van London Capital Group.

Ook volgen beleggers met argusogen de toegenomen spanningen in het Midden-Oosten, nadat Washington twee weken geleden oorlogsschapen en bommenwerpers naar de Perzische Golf stuurde. President Trump meldde via Twitter dat er zondag vlak bij de Amerikaanse ambassade in Bagdad een bom is ontploft. "Als Iran wil vechten, zal dat het officiële einde van Iran zijn. Nooit meer de Verenigde Staten bedreigen", tweette Trump.

Een junifuture voor een vat West Texas Intermediate ruwe olie sloot maandag 0,5 procent hoger, ofwel 0,34 dollar, op 63,10 dollar op de New York Mercantile Exchange.

Door: ABM Financial News.
info@abmfn.nl
Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved.
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EIA’s New Liquids Pipeline Projects Database Shows New US Crude Oil Pipeline Capacity

EIA recently launched a new liquids pipeline projects database that tracks more than 200 crude oil, hydrocarbon gas liquids and petroleum products pipeline projects. Rising domestic crude oil production has led to several changes in Gulf Coast crude oil supply and demand patterns, creating a need for more pipeline capacity. Crude oil pipeline capacity additions originating in the Gulf Coast region represent most of the scheduled pipeline capacity growth over the next few years. EIA’s new database provides an improved capability to track this growth.

The database contains project information such as project type, start dates, capacity, mileage, and geographic information for historical pipeline projects completed since 2010 and future pipeline projects. The information in the database is based on the latest public information from company documents, government filings, and trade press, and it does not reflect EIA’s assumptions on the likelihood or timing of project completion.

US crude oil production doubled between 2010 and 2018, with about 70% of that growth coming from the Gulf Coast region. US Gulf Coast crude oil production grew from 5.2 million barrels per day in 2014 to 7.1 million b/d in 2018, driven by production in the Permian Basin in western Texas and southeastern New Mexico.

As US crude oil production increased, imports dropped off significantly. Previously, Gulf Coast crude imports were shipped to refineries in the region, and they also moved north by pipeline to refineries in the Midwest. But as import volumes declined, less pipeline capacity was needed from the Gulf Coast to the Midwest. New pipelines and reversals of existing pipelines originating in the Midwest are increasingly moving crude oil south from the Bakken region in Montana and North Dakota, as well as from Canada, to the Gulf Coast. As a result, the Gulf Coast transitioned from being a net shipper to a net recipient of crude oil from elsewhere in the country in 2015.

More recently, increasing Permian crude production has outpaced pipeline takeaway capacity to bring the crude oil to market. The increasing crude oil production and need for more pipeline transportation capacity prompted a large expansion of crude oil pipeline infrastructure. In the region, nine intrastate crude oil pipeline projects have been announced or are under construction with in-service dates between 2019–2021. These projects are planned to move crude oil throughout Texas and Louisiana to further alleviate regional constraints.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Mexico Kicks Off USD 7.7 Billion Refinery Construction - AMLO

Bloomberg reported that Mexico is kicking off the construction of its USD 7.7 billion oil refinery amid a call by Mexico President Mr Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador for the country to become self-sufficient in energy production. The nation “depends too much on buying foreign gasoline,” Mr Lopez Obrador, commonly known as AMLO, said at an event in Paraiso, Tabasco, where the seventh refinery will be built. The bidding process for the six phases of the refinery begins at the end of June. The leader also used the platform to rally the country after US President Mr Donald Trump threatened in the past week to slap a 5% tariff on all goods from Mexico if it doesn’t curb an unprecedented surge in migrants over the US border.

AMLO, who’s scheduled to visit Washington this week, said Mexico wants to continue to be friends with the US and reiterated his country’s good relations with its northern neighbor. However, he also said that Mexico “isn’t a colony of any foreign country.”

AMLO said to cheers from crowds that had gathered at the Dos Bocas port following a critical tweet from Mr Trump that “The president of Mexico wants to continue being a friend of President Donald Trump. But above everything, Mexicans are friends of the people of the United States. To them, I dedicate this message from Paraiso, Tabasco. We want nothing and nobody to separate our beautiful and sacred friendship.”

Source : Bloomberg
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Olieprijs herstelt

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) De olieprijs heeft zich dinsdag hersteld van eerdere verliezen, na een verliesreeks van vier dagen die de energieprijs in een dalende trend dreigde te brengen.

Een juli-future voor een vat ruwe olie sloot 0,4 procent hoger op 53,48 dollar op de New York Mercantile Exchange. Brent-olie noteerde weinig veranderd op 61,98 dollar.

"Olie kreeg de afgelopen paar handelsdagen klop en handelaren zagen een kans op goedkope prijzen, in combinatie met aandelen die vandaag herstellen op de hoop van renteverlagingen door de Federal Reserve", zei James Hatzigiannis van Long Leaf Trading Group.

Als de olieprijs onder 53,04 was gesloten, zou de West Texas Intermediate-olieprijs in een 'bear market' of dalende trend zijn terechtgekomen, volgens data van Dow Jones, namelijk een daling van meer dan 20 procent ten opzichte van de laatste top van 66,30 dollar op 23 april.
Eerder dinsdag stond een prijs van 52,43 dollar op de borden.

Volgend analist Richard Perry is de olieprijs misschien iets te snel en te ver gedaald. Hij denkt dat de 'beren' nog steeds aan het stuur zitten.

De olieprijs daalde op groeiende zorgen over de wereldeconomie en spanningen rond importheffingen die de vraag naar energie kunnen ondermijnen.

Tegelijkertijd kijken oliehandelaren naar de verwachte afspraken over productiebeperking door OPEC landen en hun bondgenoten. De volgende OPEC-vergadering van 25 of 26 juni zal mogelijk worden uitgesteld naar juli op verzoek van de Russen.

Woensdag zijn er officiële cijfers over de Amerikaanse olievoorraden.

Door: ABM Financial News.
info@abmfn.nl
Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved.
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Amerikaanse olievoorraden stijgen

(ABM FN) De voorraden ruwe olie in de Verenigde Staten zijn vorige week gestegen. Dit bleek woensdag uit cijfers van het Amerikaanse energieministerie.

In de week eindigend op 31 mei stegen de voorraden ruwe olie met circa 6,8 miljoen vaten tot een totaal van 483,3 miljoen vaten.

De benzinevoorraden stegen met 3,2 miljoen vaten tot 234,1 miljoen vaten.

De voorraden stookolie en diesel namen toe met 4,6 miljoen vaten tot 129,4 miljoen vaten.

De capaciteitsbenutting van de raffinaderijen steeg van 91,2 procent naar 91,8.

Door: ABM Financial News.
pers@abmfn.be
Redactie: +32(0)78 486 481

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved. A
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Saudi Arabia Deepens Oil Output Cut In May 2019

Reuters quoted, a Saudi oil industry source, as sayaing that Saudi Arabia pumped 9.65 million barrels of oil per day, cutting deeper than its production target under a global pact to reduce oil supply. The world's top oil exporter's output target under an OPEC-led supply cut agreement is 10.3 million barrels of oil per day.

Source : Reuters
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Crude Oil Prices Are Likely To Remain Steady - Goldman Sachs

Reuters cited Goldman Sachs as saying that crude oil prices are likely to remain steady around current levels, as growing macro uncertainties, rising US output and large availability of core OPEC nations' spare capacity will offset supply constraints from Iran and Venezuela. The United States spooked markets worldwide with oil supply worries last month after it reimposed trade sanctions on Iran, one of the major global oil suppliers, bringing focus back on the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. Crude markets posted their biggest monthly losses in six months in May amid stalling demand and as trade wars fanned fears of a global economic slowdown.

The US bank said that "Escalating trade wars and weaker activity indicators have finally caught up with oil market sentiment. The magnitude and velocity of the move lower were further exacerbated by growing concerns over strong US production growth and rising inventories."

However, oil prices dropped to their lowest in three months on Monday, with Brent marking USD 60.55 per barrel and US crude reaching USD 52.11 per barrel.

Source : Reuters
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Olieprijs verder omlaag

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) De Amerikaanse olieprijs is woensdag opnieuw gedaald, en is nu meer dan 20 procent lager dan zijn piek in april.

De juli-future voor een vat ruwe olie sloot 3,4 procent lager op 51,68 dollar per vat op de New York Mercantile Exchange. Dat is 22 procent lager dan de top van 66,30 dollar in april.
Een daling van meer dan twintig procent geldt als signaal dat de markt een dalende trend heeft ingezet.

Brent-olie, dat wereldwijd als de standaard geldt, werd 2,2 procent goedkoper en staat nu 19 procent onder de toppen van eerder dit jaar.

De daling van woensdag volgde op een onverwachte stijging van de Amerikaanse olievoorraden in de afgelopen week. Daar kwam een zwaar tegenvallend rapport over de banengroei bij van ADP.

De cijfers wakkeren de angst bij beleggers en handelaren aan voor een vertraging van de Amerikaanse economische groei en daardoor een lagere vraag naar olie.

Door: ABM Financial News.
info@abmfn.nl
Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved.
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US Hydrocarbon Gas Liquids Production Reaches 5 Million Barrels Per Day In 2018 - EIA

of hydrocarbon gas liquids reached 5 million barrels per day in 2018, an increase of more than 0.5 million barrel per day over 2017 levels. HGLs accounted for over a quarter of total US petroleum products output in 2018. The increase in HGL production since 2010 is largely a result of growing domestic natural gas production. In 2018, US natural gas production, measured as gross withdrawals, averaged 101.3 billion cubic feet per day, a 38% increase over 2010 levels and the highest volume on record. As natural gas production has grown, an increasing share of HGLs are produced at natural gas processing plants, from about 75% in 2010 to nearly 90% in 2018.

HGLs produced at natural gas processing plants are called natural gas plant liquids, which include ethane, propane, normal butane, isobutane, and natural gasoline. A smaller share of HGLs are produced at petroleum refineries, which include refinery olefins and refinery liquefied petroleum gases. HGL production has been relatively flat at petroleum refineries since 2010, averaging about 630,000 barrel per day.

Ethane and propane account for two-thirds of HGL production. Ethane production reached 1.71 million barrel per day in 2018, a 20% increase over 2017 levels. Ethane, the lightest NGPL, can be left in the processed natural gas stream at natural gas processing facilities-a process called ethane rejection-or it can be recovered from natural gas if ethane’s value is sufficient to cover the additional costs to produce and distribute the ethane to markets.

Source : Strategic Research Institute
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Olieprijs krabbelt op

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) De olieprijs is donderdag opgekrabbeld na de flinke daling een dag eerder. Een vat West Texas Intermediate werd 0,91 dollar of 1,7 procent duurder op een settlement van 52,59 dollar.

Het was een volatiele handelssessie waarbij de olieprijs bewoog tussen winst en verlies. Woensdag leverden de oliefutures nog flink in na een forse stijging van de Amerikaanse olievoorraden. Daarmee belandde de olieprijs officieel in een zogeheten bear market, waarbij de prijs met 20 procent is gedaald na een recente piek. De olieprijs zal weer met 20 procent moeten stijgen om in 'bull market' terrein te komen.

De oliemarkten zijn in de ban van een zwakker economisch klimaat wereldwijd, veroorzaakt door de conflicten tussen de Verenigde Staten en enkele van zijn handelspartners. De angst onder marktkenners is dat deze handelsoorlogen druk zetten op de vraag naar olie. Economen van Morgan Stanley schreven donderdag in een sectorrapport dat beleggers hierdoor moeten rekenen op een nog uitdagender klimaat voor de vraag naar olie.

Naast de handelsspanningen stijgen de Amerikaanse olievoorraden steeds verder. Daarnaast wachten beleggers op de aanstaande OPEC-bijeenkomst, eind deze maand. Mogelijk wordt die vergadering een paar weken uitgesteld, op verzoek van Rusland. Eind deze maand lopen de huidige productie-afspraken af.

Door: ABM Financial News.
info@abmfn.nl
Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved.
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