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OCI - 2021

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PM gaf vandaag aan dat IEX Premium vandaag met een artikel over OCI zou komen. Dat wordt morgenochtend VOORBEURS.
BultiesBrothers
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quote:

Daarom schreef op 9 augustus 2021 19:35:

www.ad.nl/buitenland/canada-vk-en-vs-...

Zou dit nog invloed kunnen hebben op de kunstmestprijzen?
Wel voor meststoffen op basis van kalium (=Potassium). Ik weet niet hoe groot Wit Rusland is in de urea markt.
BultiesBrothers
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quote:

Profitmaker schreef op 9 augustus 2021 20:27:

PM gaf vandaag aan dat IEX Premium vandaag met een artikel over OCI zou komen. Dat wordt morgenochtend VOORBEURS.
Oke, derde persoon enkelvoud
BultiesBrothers
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DEERFIELD, Ill.--(BUSINESS WIRE)--Mitsui & Co., Inc. (8031: JP), one of the leading ammonia marketers in the world, and CF Industries Holdings, Inc. (NYSE: CF), the world’s largest producer of ammonia, today announced a memorandum of understanding that will guide the companies in a joint exploration of the development of blue ammonia projects in the United States.

“As countries and industries continue to develop plans to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, there is broad interest in blue and green hydrogen and ammonia to help meet the world’s clean energy needs”

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Blue ammonia generally relates to the production of ammonia (NH3) with its byproduct carbon dioxide (CO2) removed through carbon capture and sequestration (CCS). Demand for blue ammonia is expected to grow significantly as a decarbonized energy source, both for its hydrogen content or as a fuel itself.

“As countries and industries continue to develop plans to achieve net-zero carbon emissions, there is broad interest in blue and green hydrogen and ammonia to help meet the world’s clean energy needs,” said Tony Will, president and chief executive officer, CF Industries Holdings, Inc. “CF Industries and Mitsui share a belief that blue ammonia will play a critical role in accelerating the world’s transition to clean energy and that demand for blue ammonia will grow meaningfully. We are pleased to collaborate with Mitsui and leverage the world class expertise of both companies to explore the development of blue ammonia capacity in the United States to meet this expected demand.”

Under the memorandum of understanding, CF Industries and Mitsui plan to execute various preliminary studies on the feasibility of blue ammonia production in the United States. Among the areas that the companies will study include establishing blue ammonia supply and supply chain infrastructure, CO2 transportation and storage, expected environmental impacts, and blue ammonia economics and marketing opportunities in Japan and in other countries.

In 2020, CF Industries announced an evolution of its strategy to focus on supporting and accelerating the world’s transition to a clean energy economy, with a focus on decarbonizing its ammonia production network. Efforts to date include a definitive agreement to develop the first commercial-scale green ammonia project in North America at is Donaldsonville, Louisiana, complex, as well as initiatives to develop CCS opportunities and other CO2 abatement projects to enable blue ammonia production. CF Industries has also established goals for net zero carbon emissions by 2050, with a 25% reduction in emissions intensity by 2030.

About Mitsui & Co. Inc.
Mitsui & Co., Ltd. (8031: JP) is a global trading and investment company with a diversified business portfolio that spans approximately 64 countries in Asia, Europe, North, Central & South America, The Middle East, Africa and Oceania.

Mitsui has over 5,600 employees and deploys talent around the globe to identify, develop, and grow businesses in collaboration with a global network of trusted partners. Mitsui has built a strong and diverse core business portfolio covering the Mineral and Metal Resources, Energy, Machinery and Infrastructure, and Chemicals industries.

Leveraging its strengths, Mitsui has further diversified beyond its core profit pillars to create multifaceted value in new areas, including innovative Energy Solutions, Healthcare & Nutrition and through a strategic focus on high-growth Asian markets. This strategy aims to derive growth opportunities by harnessing some of the world’s main mega-trends: sustainability, health & wellness, digitalization and the growing power of the consumer.

For more information on Mitsui & Co’s businesses visit, www.mitsui.com.
BultiesBrothers
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Q2 resultaten

Highlights

First half net earnings of $397 million(1), or $1.83 per diluted share; EBITDA(2) of $994 million; adjusted EBITDA(2) of $997 million
Second quarter net earnings of $246 million(1), or $1.14 per diluted share; EBITDA of $596 million; adjusted EBITDA of $599 million
Trailing twelve month net cash from operating activities of $1.22 billion, free cash flow(3) of $698 million
Company to redeem $250 million in debt on September 10, 2021
Mitsui & Co., Inc., one of the leading ammonia marketers in the world, and CF Industries, the world’s largest producer of ammonia, have agreed to jointly explore development of blue ammonia projects in the United States
Company requested the initiation of antidumping and countervailing duty investigations on imports of UAN from Russia and Trinidad and Tobago (Trinidad) due to the harm the domestic UAN industry has experienced from dumped and unfairly subsidized UAN imports from Russia and Trinidad

Nitrogen Market Outlook

Management expects the global nitrogen pricing outlook to remain favorable as the need to replenish global coarse grains stocks, increased economic activity, and high energy prices in Europe and Asia should sustain a tighter global nitrogen supply and demand balance into 2023.

Global demand for nitrogen is robust and widespread. The global coarse grains stocks-to-use ratio, excluding China, was the lowest since 2012 entering the 2021 spring planting season, supporting historically high crop near-term and futures prices. This has led to strong demand for nitrogen fertilizer to maximize yield in the 2021 growing season. The Company expects that strong global demand for coarse grains will contribute to persistent low global stocks into 2022, and will require at least two more growing seasons to be replenished. This should support further strong nitrogen demand in upcoming years. Additionally, increased economic activity as the world emerges from the COVID-19 pandemic has supported higher industrial consumption of nitrogen products.

In North America, demand for nitrogen fertilizer has been positive in 2021. The U.S. Department of Agriculture projects that nearly 93 million acres of corn were planted in the U.S. while canola plantings in Canada increased 8 percent compared to 2020 according to Statistics Canada. The Company expects that corn plantings in the U.S. will be at a similar level in 2022 given current projections that 2021 ending stocks will be lower than recent historical norms due to high export demand. Industrial activity also continues to increase, supporting demand for nitrogen products such as diesel exhaust fluid and nitric acid.

Nitrogen requirements in other key regions are expected to remain robust through 2023, driven by continued strong demand for urea imports from India and Brazil. In the near-term, the Company expects India to tender for urea frequently in the second half of this year, supporting global import demand with purchases approaching 10 million metric tons for 2021. Imports of urea to Brazil were 24 percent higher year-over-year through the first six months of 2021. Management projects that urea imports to Brazil will remain substantial through the end of the year supported by higher crop prices, increased planted corn acres and improved farm incomes.

Energy prices in Europe and Asia have increased significantly from the lows of 2020 and returned to sizable differentials compared to Henry Hub natural gas prices in North America. This has steepened the global nitrogen cost curve and increased margin opportunities for low-cost North American producers. Forward curves suggest that favorable energy spreads will persist throughout 2022 and into 2023.

cfindustries.q4ir.com/news-market-inf...
BultiesBrothers
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CF Industries Holdings Inc. Announces Advance In Q2 Profit
RTTNews
Aug. 9, 2021, 04:43 PM
(RTTNews) - CF Industries Holdings Inc. (CF) revealed a profit for its second quarter that advanced from last year.

The company's earnings came in at $246 million, or $1.14 per share. This compares with $190 million, or $0.89 per share, in last year's second quarter.

Analysts had expected the company to earn $1.55 per share, according to figures compiled by Thomson Reuters. Analysts' estimates typically exclude special items.

The company's revenue for the quarter rose 32.5% to $1.59 billion from $1.20 billion last year.

CF Industries Holdings Inc. earnings at a glance:

-Earnings (Q2): $246 Mln. vs. $190 Mln. last year. -EPS (Q2): $1.14 vs. $0.89 last year. -Analysts Estimate: $1.55 -Revenue (Q2): $1.59 Bln vs. $1.20 Bln last year.

CF wel beneden verwachting gepresteerd. Ook als je hun Q2 2021 vergelijk met Q2 2020. Dan doet OCI het toch een stuk beter
Just lucky
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Knappe cijfers, maar het kleinere Oci groeit veel harder. EBITDA van CF en OCI zijn in H2 bijna gelijk, de koers van OCI is dus een koopje.
BultiesBrothers
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quote:

Just lucky schreef op 9 augustus 2021 22:53:

Knappe cijfers, maar het kleinere Oci groeit veel harder. EBITDA van CF en OCI zijn in H2 bijna gelijk, de koers van OCI is dus een koopje.
Ja, de EBITDA margin van CF ligt wel ietswat hoger dan OCI.
Omzet OCI in H1 2021 53% omhoog en CF 21%.
BultiesBrothers
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De vaakgenoemde net debt/adjusted EBITDA bij OCI is 3,07 voor H1 en bij CF 3,7.
Net debt bij OCI is 3033.6 en adjusted ebitda 987.2 (H1 2021)
Bij CF is dit als ik het goed opzoek 3713 en adj. ebitda 997 (H1 2021).

Op het gebied van H1 EBITDA doet OCI niks onder tov CF
BultiesBrothers
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quote:

Just lucky schreef op 9 augustus 2021 23:32:

De resultaten van CF zullen Oci morgen niet omhoog trekken.
Er wordt alleen nogmaals benoemd dat de vooruitzichten goed zijn en dat dat doorwerkt tot in 2023.
Maarja voor de markt slaat dat als een tang op een varken. Er wordt dus niks mee gedaan
BultiesBrothers
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Saudi Aramco scouting for more deals to offer to investors
By Syndicated Content
Aug 9, 2021 | 10:09 AM
DUBAI (Reuters) – Saudi Aramco is scouting for other potential deals to offer to investors and unlock capital, Chief Executive Amin Nasser said on Monday after the oil giant in June closed a $12.4 billion deal for its crude pipeline network.

“We are looking at the potential for other deals that we are currently in negotiation (about),” Nasser said on a call with analysts.

Aramco had reached out to banks to pitch for an advisory role to help finance the sale of a significant minority stake in its gas pipelines, three sources told Reuters in June. The gas pipeline stake sale will be a “copy paste” of the oil pipeline deal, one of the sources said. Aramco declined comment.

Aramco and other Gulf oil producers are following in the footsteps of Abu Dhabi with plans to raise tens of billions of dollars through the sale of stakes in energy assets, capitalising on a rebound in crude prices to attract foreign investors.

Nasser also told the briefing there were opportunities for the company in the hydrogen market. He said Aramco was looking for offtake agreements with potential buyers before it can expand its output in hydrogen, but added he sees strong potential for growth and exports.

“We are looking to capture a big percentage of that market, we have an advantage,” Nasser told the analysts’ briefing.

An offtake agreement occurs between a producer and a buyer to purchase or sell portions of the producer’s upcoming output.

Countries across Europe and North America are looking at ways to produce emissions-free hydrogen to help reduce carbon emissions and avert global warming.

Abu Dhabi National Oil Co (ADNOC) in partnership with Fertiglobe this month sold its first cargo of blue ammonia to Itochu Corp in Japan, for use in fertiliser production, it said on Aug. 3.

(Reporting by Hadeel Al Sayegh and Saeed Azhar; Editing by Susan Fenton and David Holmes)

Als dat Saudi Aramco nou eens OCI opkoopt voor 5.8 miljard (28 p/a) .
Daarvoor zouden ze in Q2 aan 3 weken productie genoeg hebben gehad om OCI te kopen. (bizar wat een winst: 25.5 miljard in 1 kwartaal)
Just lucky
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CF zal voor 2021 een wpa halen van circa 4,5 dollar, de kw bedraagt daarmee nu ruim 10. Voor Oci verwacht ik een wpa van circa 2 euro, waarmee de kw momenteel 9,5 bedraagt. OCI is daarmee min of meer gelijkwaardig gewaardeerd als CF. Ik vraag me af waar de koerswinst nu vandaan moet komen zonder een opwaardering van de sector. Koersen van boven de 23 kunnen we denk ik voorlopig ook wel uitsluiten (dan zal CF boven de 55 moeten staan).
Just lucky
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Zie update op IEX, ondank alle opwaartse bijstellingen gaat het koersdoel omlaag. Ik denk, ook gezien de herwaardering van de sector, het feest voorbij is. De markt anticipeert al op lagere winsten in 2022.
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Iex Premium geeft een kooptip. Martin is altijd wat bescheiden. PM verwacht dat aandeel.naar 25-30 euro gaat dit jaar. Het feest begint pas !!
Just lucky
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quote:

Profitmaker schreef op 10 augustus 2021 09:16:

Iex Premium geeft een kooptip. Martin is altijd wat bescheiden. PM verwacht dat aandeel.naar 25-30 euro gaat dit jaar. Het feest begint pas !!
Koersdoel is naar beneden gegaan, de grote beleggers hebben al geanticipeerd op een gelijkwaardig of lichte teruggang in 2022 (zie herwaardering sector). Ook al blijven de prijzen op een hoog niveau liggen, dat wil niet zeggen dat de ebitda, winst etc volgend jaar verder stijgen. Daar hoort geen koersdoel bij van boven de 22 a 23. Dan zou ik nu eerder in AMG stappen, daar zullen de komende jaren de resultaten verder groeien met 20 a 30% per jaar.
Daarom
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Ik vind het stuk van IEX ook behoorlijk flauwtjes. De vooruitzichten zijn de laatste maanden sterk verbeterd, schuld neemt hard af, rentelasten dito, fantasie etc en IEX verlaagd het koersdoel... wel met een kooptip. Niet echt dapper van IEX.
ischav2
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Just lucky schreef op 10 augustus 2021 09:19:

[...]Koersdoel is naar beneden gegaan, de grote beleggers hebben al geanticipeerd op een gelijkwaardig of lichte teruggang in 2022 (zie herwaardering sector). Ook al blijven de prijzen op een hoog niveau liggen, dat wil niet zeggen dat de ebitda, winst etc volgend jaar verder stijgen. Daar hoort geen koersdoel bij van boven de 22 a 23. Dan zou ik nu eerder in AMG stappen, daar zullen de komende jaren de resultaten verder groeien met 20 a 30% per jaar.
Heb de update van Crum net gelezen, is nogal summier. Beursgang Fertiglobe en vooruitzichten ESG onderdeel wordt helemaal niet meegenomen. Bij hem is het glas halfleeg. Met een acceptabel schuldniveau acht ik het een duidelijke koop. Zelf long en blijf dat tot de reële waarde eruit komt.
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