Unibail-Rodamco « Terug naar discussie overzicht

quote:

Franse aandelen schreef op 22 november 2023 19:28:

[...]

All true. Some buyers might have difficulty to get financing, true. But David Simon for instance is potentially selling already stake in Klepierre if Klepierre share goes up 20% through the new exchangeable note. He has got the cash already :-) And buyers like David Simon buy when market is depressed and not once it will have gone up. I don t know if he wants to buy. I am just saying if he wants to buy US assets he won t wait too long to make an offer ... because he knows other potential buyers will be able to finance soon as well ... :-)

quote:

Franse aandelen schreef op 23 november 2023 16:52:

[...]

Dear Branco,

months Nov, Dec, Jan are usually very good months. So if we are end of January at 65-75 and no cash div announced and share drops a bit to 60-65 you want to double your position then ? :-)

Double is now in my opinion... I read today the thread* of URW on this forum beginning 2020 until Covid... Everybody was bullish and buying... and now with stock trading at 20% of its high (still -80%) and 30-40% of pre Covid and a fraction of its NRV and NTA you want wait and maybe double in February ?

Just asking to better understand the logic :-) :-)

* thread of URW before COVID, interesting to flip through from January to November 2020

quote:

Lamsrust schreef op 23 november 2023 19:39:

[...]

I assume you are now referring to the US flag ships as David Simon will not be interested in the US regionals. According to the Q3, 2023 report SPG can finance itself now against 6%. The current niy of URW's flag ships is 4.6%. Suppose URW is prepared to give a 20% discount, i.e. the niy will be 5.8% then which is still below SPG's cost of finance. So I think currently SPG will not come with a competitive bid as its marginal financing costs are still too high, unless David Simon is prepared to take a risk and has SPG take up short term finance which will be replaced with long term finance once the cost of debt has come down provided that interest decrease of course which is not carved in stone.

Currently the US flag ships are according to me only interesting for full equity financed buyers like pension funds and insurance companies. But these parties normally step into the market once assets are fully stabilized, i.e. they prefer to pay a lower niy in exchange for less risks. URW is currently stabilizing assets with capex investments in order to lower the vacancy by replacing a.o. empty big boxes by mixed use.

As an intermediary step I see URW seek JV investors for the US flag ships they still own for 100% like Century City and Old Orchard.

quote:

Lamsrust schreef op 23 november 2023 19:52:

[...]

Of course Branco P has to react himself too, but I would like to add this.

I do not see URW's share price rise to EUR 65 - 75 within the next two months in a normal going concern situation, i.e. only small EUR and US regional sales, as the indebtedness of URW is still perceived as high by the markets. Besides that if the whole equity market goes down again with 5 to 10% on recession fear or whatever fear - the price decline of URW is always amplified. So a share price of URW below EUR 50 until the presentation of the 2023 results can certainly not be excluded.

I also still want to increase my holding in URW but wait for lower entry levels, i.e. sub EUR 50.

quote:

Franse aandelen schreef op 23 november 2023 23:07:

[...]

Regarding stock price I have as stated a different more optimistic view, maybe because I am fully invested now... One sees often what one wants to see :-) It is a learning process not to see what one wants to see but what is likely ... :-)

quote:

Lamsrust schreef op 24 november 2023 00:26:

[...]

I am invested for many years in URW. When the stock price approached EUR 100 pre covid, which was 8x FFO then, URW was already recommended by private bankers of Dutch banks. See where we are now. I believe URW will surpass that level again, but I think it will take another 2 to 3 years as URW first wants to optimize its US portfolio by lowering vacancy by increasing occupancy and repurposing empty big boxes/parts of a mall into mixed use. So URW LTV will stay elevated for a while, however URW adds value meanwhile. Until now the market prices in this value addition only very limited.

quote:

Franse aandelen schreef op 24 november 2023 10:37:

[...]

Dear Lamrust, you are too pessimistic about stock price. Look what you said on 20 October and where we are now (54,74 EUR) :

Quote of you:
"Eens, de markt is nu gewoon extreem negatief over vastgoed. Kijk naar Klepierre dat de balans op orde heeft, en ook maar tegen 9x de EPS noteert en bij een pay out ratio van 75% een dividend rendement heeft van 8.3%.

Dan weten we in ieder geval waar URW minimaal naar toe gaat, zodra de balans op orde is, nl. EUR 80 à 90.

In juni kocht ik op EUR 42,50 fors bij en ik overweeg dit weer te doen. Alleen vrees ik dat het sentiment nu nog wat negatiever is en de koers nog wat dieper kan wegzakken.

Overname van URW door PE ben ik niet bang voor, omdat ticket heel hoog is en Niel in de weg zit."

Maybe since the recovery takes so long time you lost your optimism? The stock went down on unjustified extreme fear. The fear is now abating ... and we will have a strong and fast yo-yo effect up after 8 years yo-yo effect down ... Kind regards.

quote:

Lamsrust schreef op 24 november 2023 11:02:

[...]

I have certainly not lost any optimism,, but i think it will take much more time for the URW share price to recover to EUR 80 - 90. I said that also in this quote, i.e. “zodra de balans op orde is” with which I mean a LTV comparable to KLEP i.e. 38% including hybrids. This can only be achieved in two ways (i) selling significant part of US flagships or (ii) keeping the profit in the company for many years.

Conclusion: I remain very optimistic but I expect it will take much more time before the market will price it in.

quote:

Franse aandelen schreef op 24 november 2023 11:12:

[...]

Dear Lamrust,

I quote today's FT about what XN, URW's main share holder said (in URW-unrelated context):
"But Niel has proved many people wrong in the past. “I have built my career on the pessimism of others,” he said."

www.ft.com/content/f6c19a63-aa64-4bc9...

P.S. and in the end : URW's rise is only a question of time. You think it will take longer, I think you may be right but maybe it even rises faster :-) So we have common ground anyways, both being long URW.

quote:

Franse aandelen schreef op 23 november 2023 16:52:

[...]

Dear Branco,

months Nov, Dec, Jan are usually very good months. So if we are end of January at 65-75 and no cash div announced and share drops a bit to 60-65 you want to double your position then ? :-)

Double is now in my opinion... I read today the thread* of URW on this forum beginning 2020 until Covid... Everybody was bullish and buying... and now with stock trading at 20% of its high (still -80%) and 30-40% of pre Covid and a fraction of its NRV and NTA you want wait and maybe double in February ?

Just asking to better understand the logic :-) :-)

* thread of URW before COVID, interesting to flip through from January to November 2020

quote:

Branco P schreef op 24 november 2023 22:03:

[...]

Good evening Branco,

I answer in bold:

take a look at the market interest rates and especifically to what happened in 2022, for example:
www.iex.nl/Rente-Koers/61375437/IRS-5...
(affecting interest rates on new loans)

Also look at what happened to state bonds, for example:
www.iex.nl/Rente-Koers/190118309/Fran...
(affecting yields of valuations of properties)

Answer: Yes, I exactly because market rates went up so much, they decreased the value in share price.


The situation in 2020 was totally different. I was sure people would go back to the shopping malls after the covid-drama.

Answer : Yes, me too.

Now we are at a point where higher rents will truly hurt real estate companies and (also) lower rents could really boost the stocks.

Answer : exactly

an unexpected high or low inflation numbre could really affect interest-rates short term and stockprices of real estate companies short term.

Also some recession-news could hurt stocks in general. Briefly.

Answer : true

So yes. 70 euro from now until end of februari is possible. Also 40 euro is possible. Also both are possible. A lot of movement, as we saw in 2023: 54 --> 42 --> 53 --> 42 --> 55

Answer : true

I am happy with my current position (bought at average 43,89 euro) and I would maybe sell a bit above 65 euro and buy it back under 50.

Answer : the past three years were Swing trading years. Buy low, sell after 20%, 25% rise. However going forward, this strategy will only work once or twice more in my humble opinion and the investor using the strategy going forward will miss the +100% to 250% rally after 20-30% upside swing trade

I made extra money this year bij writing out of the money put options when URW was on lows. Strikes 35 / 38 / 40 / 43. Never was assigned to buy the stocks, but I wouldn't have felt bad when I would have had to buy some extra stocks at those prices.

Answer : very nice strategy, well done

If the stock stays volatile I will continue doing so in 2024.

Answer : the stock will be volatile but not because of swings up and down but an huge, enormous upside swing at some point

Important to see is: will there be property sales untill the end of 2023? If yes, maybe I will also buy some extra stocks depending on where we are at that point and the details of the deal.

quote:

Franse aandelen schreef op 24 november 2023 22:39:

[...]

Answer : you know already now, that if there is a deal, the numbers will be ok because URW does not make stupid, too discounted property sales.

Conclusion: You have done very well over the last 3 years. Especially doing swing trades and selling options. Going forward that might either not work any more or once or maximum twice more, but thereafter if you continue doing swing trades you miss the huge upside trade in my humble opinion.

Kind regards.

quote:

Branco P schreef op 25 november 2023 11:44:

[...]

true, in 2022 I also made money with writing out of the money call options (at stock peaks) but I saw that in 2023 I only did the writing of puts.

I agree that a major upswing of the stock price is now a risk when writing out of the money calls. So my feeling for short term and lang term is flat or up. But not down. That does not mean that the stock can’t again go to 45. And if it does, I will be buying more shares and/or writing OTM puts.

I will also not be selling my entire position at peaks. Maybe max 25% I would be thinking of selling on a serious peak (and buy it back if we go lower. If it does nog go lower: also OK)

quote:

Branco P schreef op 25 november 2023 16:15:

"The big advantage of writing options is that time works in your favor, but you should really only do it with stocks that you truly would like to have in portfolio long term for the strike price."

quote:

Branco P schreef op 25 november 2023 21:51:

True, regarding banks, for example ABN Amro is trading very low...

I believe (if I remember correctly) that all the relevant interest rates in 2008 were clearly higher than the interest rates are now, maybe on average some 150bpt to 200bpt higher? It is hard to find good data though.

So I do not expect the interest rates to go substantially lower (because current levels are in fact almost "healthy") unless there will be substantial economic problems, but in that case the lower interest rates will probably be preceded by lower stock prices. yield curve is also getting less inverted I believe.

Nobody knows of course, but I myself I am currently at around 42% cash and thinking of selling some more stocks still (approx 3%).

I do also feel that there are good opportunities in REITS at the moment, especially those with good quality real estate and relatively low LTV, high valuation yields, and long term fixed interest rates on the loans.

I have a small position in URW. Bigger ones in KLEP and ECP. There is more to gain with URW but also the risks are higher because the Westfield portfolio was not the best quality. Had Unibail not bought that Westfield Portfolio, we would currently have been at 125 euro probably (plus we would have received dividend in the last few years).