Na het lezen van dit bericht worden we weer wat vrolijker na zo'n K-week.
My estimate is, when Nokia sells 59M Lumias on an annual basis, you won??t be able to buy NOK stock below $20.
Nokia is a stock with great upside opportunity and why:
1) Nokia??s bankruptcy is already remote.
Nokia has increased net cash to about $5.7 billion.
Nokia??s worst loss has been $290 million a quarter in 2012.
Even with this kind of loss, Nokia could still deal by its own net cash for at least 4 years!
2) Nokia won??t have to deal with that kind of loss in the future and why
A. Nokia has cut cost expenses. The layoff in 2012 starts to be fully effective in 2013.
B. Now Nokia has to pay royalty to Microsoft, but Nokia has patent incomes.
C. Nokia has managed to make the important tough work for the basis of its new platform WP.
Nokia has already sold over 15 million Lumia phones up to date (9.9 million units from Lumia debut till the end of September 2012 + 4.4 million units in the last quarter of 2012 + January 2013).
D. Nokia has now a high end phone that can make "halo effects" and be compared to Apple??s and Samsung??s most high-end phone, the Lumia 920.
The demand of this phone is still high in many countries around the world. The 4Q12??s Lumia sales did not include the sales of Lumia 920 in many countries, such as India, Asia-Pacific, UAE, Latin America, and many other countries around the world yet, because the phone is arriving these countries only starting from January 2013.
Even in Europe, many countries start to get this phone starting 1Q13, for example the Netherlands announced the phone arriving in January.
And China Mobile received only first lot of Lumias 920T around Christmas, the second and third lot and further have arrived China, and the phone is still selling out.
E. China Mobile deal. When now, both China Mobile and China Unicom are subsidizing the Lumia 920 heavily, the 2-year or 3-year contract is starting from
0 or 1 yuan, and considering only less than 1/5 of Chinese people are using highest-end smartphones,
this will result into a huge number of 2-year or 3-year contract users for Nokia in China! Besides, 3G penetration in China is still very low, there is a huge opportunity there. Additionally, among the highest end phones, Nokia Lumia 920 is significantly much cheaper than for example iPhone 5 and Galaxy Note II. Nokia has an advantage in both the price competition and the biggest carriers?? backing in China!
F. Nokia Siemens Networks (NSN). During these few months NSN has won many 3G and 4G contracts in many countries.
According to NSN, they have network equipment that can boost the speed of 4G many times faster. This shows that, besides PureView camera technology, HD+ sensitive screen technology, advanced mapping platform HERE and City Lens, Nokia has also top innovations in building 4G LTE networks.
G. MWC is coming soon in Febuary. There are still more to come from Nokia.
According to The Verge, Nokia will launched PureView camera phone.
According to CEO Stephen Elop, Nokia is also planning a lot of interesting things with Verizon.
Nokia is likely launching tablet as well, even with some loyal fans of Nokia around the world buying some of Nokia??s tablets, this will be a good gain for Nokia.
Nokia will launch more Lumia phones in the coming months to attract different consumer demands. More lower price-point,
mid-range and high-end WP8 Lumias are to come.
In 1Q13, beside Lumia 920 and Lumia 820 which are making their way to more markets and with better supplies, Nokia is also attracting the mass markets with budget WP phones Lumia 620 and Lumia 505.
F. Asha phones. Asha phones are now selling almost 10 million units a quarter.
Asha phones are affordable and competitive. Asha phones have now more and more smartphone features.
Apart from features like Facebook, Twitter etc. Asha phones
have internet access and access to thousands of Nokia??s most popular apps.
Nokia has also brought an app called "Nearby" into Asha phones. Nearby is almost the same as City Lens in Lumia phones which is exclusive and unique in mapping and location data.
There is still plenty of room for Asha phones to grow, because the price is competitive (cheapest android is right now about $100, while Asha is only about $70 without any contract).
Apart from the features and price mentioned above, there are a couple of important and good selling points in Asha phones against cheapest androids: free games and music!
Asha phones are still profitable for Nokia, because the OS is from Nokia itself, Nokia does not have to pay royalty for it.
3) While bankruptcy is remote, Nokia??s stock price is still heavily undervalued.
NYSE tech stocks are usually 2x book value, Nokia is still way much below that.
According to Morningstar??s valuation, the sum of parts of Nokia (NSN, Navteq, feature phones, smartphones and patent portfolio)
is worth much more than Nokia??s stock price right now, not to mention Nokia??s $5.7 billion net cash added to that value!
Two years ago NOK was still about $15, now the stock is only over $4, the reason is that the stock has been over sold.
Nokia is the most short sold stock in both Helsinki and New York! The shorts are still over 20% in Nokia??s total share number which is approximately 3.75 billion shares.
This is a huge number, considering Apple??s short interest is only around 1% and Samsung??s around 2%. When Nokia is here to stay, the shorts need to be covered and the stock will skyrocket from these levels.
Nokia Apple Intel Microsoft Cirrus Logic
0.32 3.0 2 3.0 3.76
Note that Nokia is currently selling at 0.32 price/sales ratio. This means that if the company manages to restructure and return to normal profitability, the stock has the potential to become a 10x bagger (even from today's price levels) - assuming the market will value Nokia 3.0x sales like Apple or Microsoft. But even a price/sales ratio of 2, like Intel has, means a 6x bagger from these levels.