De outlook van tomtom is aan de lage kant Tatje. Deze heeft als basis scenario dat de automotive markt 5% per jaar herstelt om in 2025 het niveau van 2019 weer te halen. We zien afgelopen maanden veel snellere groei cq herstel. Enerzijds doordat de chiptekorten heel plotseling verdwijnen. Er waren partijen chips aan het hamsteren en die bestellen nu niet meer en zijn er plotseling overschotten. En het laat zien dat de consument zich toch niet echt door inflatie laat afleiden. In Duitsland was inmiddels 22% van de verkochte auto’s een EV. Dit zijn prijzige auto’s (niet de cost of ownership maar wel de aanschaf)
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Inventory of Chips Increases as Demand for Electronics Decreases
The oversupply of chips marks a sharp turnaround from a global shortage during two years of supercharged demand.
December 27, 2022
10
minute read
There are now more chips in the world than ever before.
The oversupply of chips marks a sharp turnaround from a global shortage during two years of supercharged demand. Consumer appetite for electronics has weakened against a backdrop of rising interest rates, a falling stock market and recession fears. Chip inventories are swelling, mirroring what is happening in the wider economy where retailers are stuck with goods on their shelves and producers of a range of products in high demand early in the pandemic now face a glut.
The shift in the chip market is good news for consumers who can get their hands on products faster and sometimes at a lower price than a year ago. For chip makers, the shift has led to job cuts and reduced capital spending as companies try to restore profitability levels that have eroded in recent months.
Sanjay Mehrotra, chief executive of memory maker Micron Technology Inc., said that chip inventory levels are "well above our target level." This means that there is a surplus of chips, which could lead to lower prices.
The company missed Wall Street earnings projections on Thursday, gave a subdued outlook and said it would cut about 10% of its workforce.
According to an analysis by Susquehanna International Group LLP, lead times between chip orders and deliveries have fallen in recent months. Inventory levels are at their highest levels in more than a decade, or about 40 days above the median for the chip industry and its supply chain, according to a UBS analysis.
The recent reversal in fortunes for gadget makers is a good illustration of what is happening for chip makers. HP Inc. and Dell Technologies Inc., two of the largest PC makers, say that their products which were selling quickly early in the pandemic are now sitting on the shelves for longer periods of time.
HP's Enrique Lores has said that while inventory levels of consumer PCs are high, there are signs that they are beginning to clear out. He expects this to continue over the next two quarters.
"Today's inventory levels are driving very aggressive pricing, as everyone is trying to reduce their stock," he said in December at an investor event. Dell echoed this sentiment in November, saying that distributors were offering promotions in an increasingly price-competitive market, though Dell itself was not discounting its products.
Intel Corp. Chief Executive Pat Gelsinger said in October that the company's most recent muted earnings outlook and announcement of job cuts made it difficult to see any good news on the horizon. Rival Advanced Micro Devices Inc., which also makes central processing units that go into personal computers, has warned about elevated inventory levels.
AMD CEO Lisa Su has said that the company is working to address the current chip shortage by shipping fewer chips than there is demand for. She added that AMD's PC-making customers are also adjusting their production levels accordingly.
"Even as they were selling through their inventory, they were not replenishing stock to the same levels," she said. "I think the market will continue to be volatile."
Chip executives have said they expect the situation to gradually improve next year. However, there is still uncertainty about when the industry, which is known for its sharp boom-and-bust cycles, is poised for its next upturn.
Nvidia Corp., the largest graphics chip company by value in America, has announced that a new generation of superfast videogaming graphics chips could be muted by excess inventory. The company has said that its customers are trying to burn through existing stocks before replenishing and buying the latest processors.
Inventory levels are expected to return to normal by the end of the company's current quarter, which ends in January, Chief Financial Officer Colette Kress said in November.
Some analysts believe the turnaround will happen later in the year, while Micron has said it expects the situation to persist through the first half of its current fiscal year, which ends in September. Most customers are expected to have reduced their stocks to healthy amounts by the middle of 2023, Mr. Mehrotra said in a call with analysts.
Chip makers are facing tough times, with PC shipments poised for their sharpest fall in more than two decades and smartphone sales languishing. Micron has cut its projection for handset shipments this year from its outlook just three months earlier.
Qualcomm Inc. has repeatedly cut its sales projections this year, citing a persistently lackluster phone market and elevated chip inventories. Chief Financial Officer Akash Palkhiwala said at an event this month that the issue would take a couple quarters to resolve.
Despite the current glut of chips, industry executives are preparing for a long-term rise in demand that will require more factories. They expect global chip sales to roughly double by 2030, surpassing $1 trillion. Micron is planning a facility in upstate New York that could cost as much as $100 billion and would be partially funded by new U.S. chip-manufacturing incentives.
Some chip makers see the inventory buildup as an opportunity. While makers of CPUs at the heart of PCs need to deliver their product before a new, more capable version is introduced, others make chips that won’t fundamentally change for years. This gives the latter group the chance to sell off their inventory before it becomes obsolete.
Lattice Semiconductor Corp. has seen its inventory rise by around 29% in the year to Oct. 1, according to its third-quarter earnings report. But Chief Executive Jim Anderson said he wasn’t concerned.
Lattice Semiconductor Corp. makes chips for the defense industry, data centers and some consumer devices.
He said that their products usually last for 15 or 20 years, so there is a low risk of them becoming obsolete. Therefore, it makes more sense for them to have more inventory instead of less.