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voda 31 januari 2019 20:25

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Mercedes-Benz to roll out 15 new models in China in 2019

Gasgoo reported that in 2018, Mercedes-Benz sold a total of 674,125 vehicles (including Smart) in China with a year-on-year growth of 10.3%. The German premium car brand plans to roll out 15 new models in this country, including the new E-Class, the mid-cycle refresh GLC L, the all-new GLE and the all-new EQC, the automaker told local media on January 29.

The new Mercedes-Benz E-Class will replace the 3.0T engine with the M264 turbocharged inline-four engine, still hooked up to 9-speed automatic manual transmission.

Its exterior will retain the design of the existing model. The grille featuring two or three horizontally-placed slats is flanked by eye-catching headlights. The bumper stretches across the lower part of the front face. As to the side profile, waistlines stretch from the front wing to the taillight cluster. The new model offers the tires in two sizes of 18 inches and 19 inches and packs an exhaust layout with dual stacks of pipes on each side.

The all-new Mercedes-Benz EQC is likely to be produced by Beijing Benz in early 2019 and go on sale in the second half of the year.

Source : Gasgoo

Bijlage:

voda 31 januari 2019 20:32

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China’s coal mines emit more methane despite policy aimed at reducing emissions - Report

ZME reported that Chinese coal mining operations have produced increasing levels of methane emissions since 2010, a new study reports. These results show that the government’s efforts to curb emissions aren’t working as intended.

Business as usual
Back in 2010, the Chinese government passed new policy meant to reduce emissions of methane produced during the mining process to limit the industry’s ecological footprint. Companies were required to either utilize or flare (burn) methane released inside coal mines. Carbon dioxide (CO2), the best-known greenhouse gas, persists in the atmosphere for longer than methane (CH4). However, methane (CH4) is the second-ranking anthropogenic greenhouse gas, with a global warming potential 28 times greater than that of carbon dioxide (CO2) on a mass basis.

The move was quite ambitious. China’s twelfth Five Year Plan specified that 5.6 teragrams (one teragram equals one million kilograms, or one thousand tons) of the methane produced by the country’s coal mines should be tapped or burned by 2015. Targets for 2020 called for even higher quantities to be used in such ways. China’s government also called for coal use in the national energy mix to decrease from 64% (in 2015) to about 58% by 2020 and scaled back plans for new coal power plants — all of which should indirectly reduce methane emissions by reducing coal use.

A new paper led by Scot Miller, an Assistant Professor at the Johns Hopkins University, Maryland, United States, estimated methane emissions in China using satellite data from between 2010 and 2015. According to their data, the country’s methane emissions didn’t dip under the new policy — instead, they increased.

The team estimates that emissions rose by roughly 1.1 teragrams of methane per year during the study period, the team estimates. Overall, methane emissions followed a business-as-usual scenario, they say. The team also notes that coal production increased steadily over the study period, while cattle counts and rice production (two other major sources of methane emissions) remained relatively steady. The country’s coal mining industry contributes around one-third (roughly 33%) of its total anthropogenic methane emissions, the team estimates.

Source : ZME

voda 31 januari 2019 20:34

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China's Hebei checking coal-fired plants after Datang quality violations

Reuters reported that China's pollution-plagued Hebei province said it has launched inspections at all coal-fired power plants after a major utility company was found using low-quality coal, a local branch of the Ministry of Environment and Ecology said.

The ministry branch said in a statement that two power plants operated by China Datang Group were found using high-sulphur coal that did not meet emission standards.

It said that Datang's Baoding thermal plant burned 547,100 tonnes of coal in 2018 that failed to meet environmental standards. Its Qingyuan thermal power plant burned low-quality coal and more overall than the maximum allowed by the ministry in 2017 and 2018.

Source : Reuters

voda 1 februari 2019 16:19

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Nog meer krimp Chinese industrie

(ABM FN-Dow Jones) De inkoopmanagersindex voor de industrie in China is in januari verder gedaald. Dit bleek vrijdag uit cijfers van Markit Economics en Caixin.

De inkoopmanagersindex daalde van 49,7 in december naar 48,3 afgelopen maand. Dit is de laagste stand sinds februari 2016.

Eerder deze week wees de inkoopmanagersindex voor de industrie, berekend door de Chinese overheid, ook al op krimp, met een indexstand van 49,5.

Econoom Zhengsheng Zhong van CEBM wees er wel op dat de deelindex voor de nieuwe exportorders stevig steeg in januari, tot boven de 50. Dat betekent dat de export "duidelijk" een herstel heeft doorgemaakt, sinds de VS en China een staakt-het-vuren overeen zijn gekomen tot 1 maart.

Een indexstand van meer dan 50 wijst op groei, minder dan 50 betekent krimp.

Door: ABM Financial News.
info@abmfn.nl
Redactie: +31(0)20 26 28 999

© Copyright ABM Financial News B.V. All rights reserved.

voda 1 februari 2019 16:39

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'Metro stoot een deel van de Chinese tak af'

Gepubliceerd op 1 feb 2019 om 11:52 | Views: 746

DÜSSELDORF (AFN) - Het Duitse groothandelsconcern Metro zet een meerderheidsbelang van zijn Chinese activiteiten in de etalage, schrijft persbureau Bloomberg op basis van ingewijden.

Het moederbedrijf van onder meer groothandel Makro zou maximaal 80 procent van zijn belang van de hand willen doen. Hoe hoog dat uiteindelijk wordt, hangt onder meer af van de hoogte van het bod. Ook de vastgoedportefeuille van Metro in China kan eventueel tot de deal behoren, volgens bronnen.

Metro bevestigt alleen dat het op zoek is naar een lokale investeerder die meedenkt over de strategie en de groei helpt aan te jagen. Het groothandelsconcern gaat de komende tijd een rondje doen langs potentiële kopers en pas als voldoende kandidaten zich hebben gemeld, gaan de onderhandelingen van start. Metro noemt nog geen namen en wil zich niet vastpinnen op een tijdslijn.

Het netwerk van de Chinese supermarkten van Metro omvat 95 winkels en was goed voor een omzet van 2,7 miljard euro in het afgelopen jaar. De activiteiten van Metro hebben een gezonde winstmarge en zorgen voor sterke inkomsten, aldus analisten van zakenbank Jefferies.

voda 1 februari 2019 17:20

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Scrap remains the wild card in China's copper imports - Andy Home

Reuters reported that China set a new record last year in terms of how much copper it sucked in from the rest of the world. Imports of refined metal reached 3.75 million tonnes, up 16 percent from 2017 and eclipsing the previous high of 3.68 million tonnes registered in 2015. The strength of China's import appetite is surprising given the country's own refined copper production surged by 8 percent to just over 9.0 million tonnes in 2018.

New smelting and refining capacity continues to be built and there was no shortage of mined concentrates to feed it last year thanks to a robust performance by the world's copper mines. China also imported more copper concentrates than ever before, close to 20 million tonnes in gross weight terms. In part, the explanation for China's increased call on units from the rest of the world is one of simple restocking after relatively weak imports in 2017. In part, however, it's also down to scrap, the often overlooked component of the copper supply chain.

Copper scrap imports slumped last year as Beijing tightened purity rules on the type of material it is prepared to accept, part of a broader campaign against "foreign waste". And with more rule changes coming this year, scrap will remain the wild card in China's copper import picture. Imports of copper scrap fell by 32 percent to 2.4 million tonnes gross weight in 2018, the lowest headline figure this century. This was by no means unexpected. China had flagged in advance its intention to ban imports of what it calls Category 7 scrap at the end of last year. Category 7 scrap covers a broad spectrum of materials. Much of it, such as radiators and engine motors, needs to be physically disassembled before the metal can be extracted. All of it is relatively low-grade, typically containing below 70 percent copper and often a lot less than that. Although the ban kicked in only at the end of the year, import restrictions and tighter regulatory oversight began with the first round of 2018 import licenses.

A step-change in the sort of scrap entering China quickly became evident. Average copper content jumped from 42 percent in 2017 to around 60 percent last year, according to analysts at Refinitiv. On paper, last year's year on year change in terms of how much copper was contained in China's scrap imports was marginal. In the real world, however, the clampdown on Category 7 flows caused significant supply-chain disruption, which was compounded by China's imposition of tariffs on imports of scrap from the United States, a key source of higher-purity material.

Scrap has a double impact on the refined metal segment of the copper market. It is used both to make new metal via secondary refining and as a direct-melt input into first-stage processing into copper products.

Analysts at Barclays Capital, citing research by Wood Mackenzie, note that while total copper consumption increased by 2 percent last year in China, demand for refined metal rose by 5 percent.

Source : Reuters

voda 1 februari 2019 19:26

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China joint venture engine plant name changed to Changan Mazda Engine Co

Mazda Motor Corporation has purchased in full Ford Motor Company’s stake in Changan Ford Mazda Engine Co Ltd. (located in Nanjing, China), a joint venture between the two companies and Chongqing Changan Automobile Co Ltd. In line with the change to a 50:50 ownership structure (Mazda and Changan), the name has been changed to Changan Mazda Engine Co Ltd.

Changan Ford Mazda Engine Co Ltd was established in September 2005 with Changan owning 50 percent of shares and Ford and Mazda 25 percent each. It began production of engines for Mazda cars in April 2007. After the name change, the plant will continue to produce Skyactiv-G 1.5-, 2.0- and 2.5-liter gasoline engines for supply to Changan Mazda Automobile Co., Ltd. (also in Nanjing), which produces the Mazda CX-8, Mazda CX-5 and Mazda3 (called Axela in Japan) for the Chinese market.

Source : Strategic Research Institute

voda 1 februari 2019 20:02

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China power consumption up 6.84 trillion kilowatt hours in 2018 – Report

Reuters reported that China's electricity consumption rose to 6.84 trillion kilowatt hours in 2018, hitting a six-year high of 8.5 percent year on year, the Xinhua news agency reported that the rise in consumption was led by China's manufacturing industry and services sector, Xinhua reported, citing Yu Chongde, vice president at the China Electricity Council.

Last year the council had forecast China's power consumption to rise 5.5 percent in 2018 on economic growth and pollution curbs.

Source : Reuters

voda 1 februari 2019 20:08

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China power capacity seen rising 110 GW in 2019

Reuters reported that China is expected to put another 110 gigawatts of new power generation into operation in 2019, more than the entire capacity of the United Kingdom, with over half consisting of clean energy sources like solar, an industry group said late on Tuesday.

Despite promises to "decouple" economic growth and energy consumption, China's total power capacity has continued to surge. The country put 120 GW into operation last year after connecting a record 133.7 GW of new capacity in 2017, according to data from the China Electricity Council.

But it has steadily raised the share of clean energy sources in the total, and is expected to put another 62 GW of non-fossil fuel power into operation during 2019, CEC said in its annual report.

The group, which represents China's power generating firms, said the country's total installed capacity was expected to break the 2,000 GW barrier by the end of this year, rising around 5 percent from the end of 2018.

Source : Reuters

voda 1 februari 2019 20:08

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Shikoku Electric to scrap two oil fired power plants

Reuters reported that Japan's Shikoku Electric Power Co Inc will scrap two ageing oil-fired power plants at its Anan power station in Tokushima in western Japan. Mr Kenji Sagawa, deputy general manager of the Tokyo branch office said that Shikoku Electric will scrap the 56-year-old No. 1 plant and the 50-year-old No. 2 plant at Anan as it owns enough capacity to meet electricity demand and as it wants to cut maintenance costs.

The No.1 plant has a capacity of 125 megawatts (MW) and has been shut since 2002 while the No.2 plant, with 220 MW of capacity, has been shut since 2016.

Source : Reuters

voda 1 februari 2019 20:27

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China's Sinochem Energy lets Hong Kong IPO application lapse

Reuters reported that that Sinochem Energy, a unit of China's state-owned Sinochem Group, has allowed its application for a Hong Kong initial public offering (IPO) to lapse. Sinochem Energy had sought to raise up to $2 billion from the listing, banking on a new technology platform to boost its valuation. The company put the IPO on hold late last year because it was likely to only raise around USD 1.2-$1.3 billion based on early investor feedback, a source with knowledge of the matter told Reuters.

The source said that the plan would be shelved for the next one to two years. Sinochem Energy operates the group's oil and petroleum products trading, refining, storage and logistics, as well as distribution and retail businesses, but not its struggling upstream business that includes overseas oil and gas production.

Sinochem Energy's application expired on Wednesday six months after it was filed, according to the Hong Kong Stock Exchange website. The company did not immediately respond to a request for comment. Another source told Reuters earlier in January that the IPO had been put on hold partly because of a change in leadership.

Zhang Wei, the company's general manager, moved to China National Petroleum Corp (CNPC) in December.

Sinochem Energy operates one of China's largest commercial oil tank farms, with 32 million barrels of storage capacity, and has some 800 petrol stations under its brand. It launched a technology platform last year to help create value for the IPO, but has since reduced its 1,000-strong workforce by 300 jobs and plans to cut another 200 positions, sources said.

Source : Reuters

haas 2 februari 2019 08:33

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Chinees Dubai verrijst middenin de steppe
Radio 1:zaterdag 2 februari 2019, 09:06 uur

www.geotrendlines.nl/zijderoute-meer-...

Een van China’s nieuwe haltes op hun nieuwe Zijderoute is Khorgos. Een paar jaar terug lag daar, midden op die uitgestrekte steppe aan de grens tussen China en Kazachstan, nog een slaperig dorpje met welgeteld 908 inwoners. Nu is er een grote stad met louter als doel de handel met de rest van de wereld te ontsluiten. Een soort Dubai op de Chinese steppe. China-deskundige Ties Dams is te gast om te vertellen over Khorgos.

voda 4 februari 2019 20:46

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Nakayama Steel's data manipulation dates back to 1993 or Before

Jiji Press reported that unveiling the results of its in-house investigation, Nakayama Steel Works Ltd has said that its quality inspection data falsification for a product called work rolls started in 1993 or before. Three board directors of the steelmaker based in the western Japan city of Osaka, including President Kazuaki Hakomori, will voluntarily return 10 pct to 30 pct of their pay for two months to take the blame for the irregularities. Data on toughness or components were manipulated for about 12,000 of some 14,700 work rolls shipped between April 2011 and September 2018, the company said.

Nakayama Steel said that "We deeply apologize for causing great trouble and concern to our clients and other related parties.”

The company plans to put preventive measures into action.

Nakayama Steel had been investigating details of the misconduct since announcing the irregularities in October last year.

Source : Jiji Press

voda 4 februari 2019 20:47

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Chinese manufacturing sector performance subdued at start of 2019 - Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI

Latest survey data signaled subdued overall operating conditions in the Chinese manufacturing sector at the start of 2019. Production and total new work were both slightly down at the start of the year, despite a renewed increase in export orders. Relatively muted demand conditions underpinned the first fall in purchasing activity for 20 months, while firms also registered lower inventories of both purchased and finished items. On a positive note, employment levels fell at the weakest rate for nine months, while confidence towards the business outlook was at its highest since May 2018. The headline seasonally adjusted Purchasing Managers Index, a composite indicator designed to provide a single-figure snapshot of operating conditions in the manufacturing economy, posted 48.3 at the start of 2019, down from 49.7 in December, to point to a continued softening in the health of China's manufacturing sector. The latest PMI reading was the lowest since February 2016.

After rising slightly at the end of last year, Chinese manufacturing production weakened in January. According to panellists, softer demand conditions led companies to revise their production schedules. That said, the rate at which output fell was only modest. January’s survey indicated a generally subdued trend in total new work placed with Chinese goods producers. Underlying data indicated that weakness largely stemmed from muted domestic demand, as new work from abroad rose slightly at the start of the 2019.

Workforce numbers at manufacturing firms in China fell only slightly in January. Furthermore, the rate of reduction was the s lowest seen for nine months. At the same time, companies reported a further modest increase in the amount of outstanding orders.

The softer fall in employment was accompanied by a slight improvement in business confidence. Notably, sentiment regarding the 12-month business outlook was at its most positive since May 2018. Some firms anticipate new products and planned company expansions to boost output over the next year.

Purchasing activity weakened in January, driven by a softer trend in overall new order intakes. That said, the pace of decline was modest. Manufacturers also adopted a relatively cautious approach to inventories, as firms reduced their holdings of both stocks of p urchases and finished items at the start of 2019.

After broadly stabilising at the end of 2018, average suppliers’ delivery times increased across China’s manufacturing sector in January.

Commenting on the China General Manufacturing PMI™ data, Dr. Zhengsheng Zhong, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at CEBM Group said “The Caixin China General Manufacturing PMI fell further to 48.3 in January, the lowest since February 2016.The subindex for new orders dipped further into contractionary territory, pointing to a moderate contraction in demand across the manufacturing sector. Yet the gauge for new export orders rose notably above the 50 level, the dividing line that separates contraction from expansion, reaching its highest point since March 2018, showing that companies’ export orders have obviously rebounded since the truce in the China-US trade war. The output subindex dropped, highlighting the drag effect of softer demand on production. The employment subindex continued to rise moderately despite staying in negative territory, which could be due to the effect of government policies to stabilize the job market. The measure for stocks of finished goods fell into contractionary territory, while the subindex for stocks of purchased items dropped further, suggesting that manufacturers tended to reduce their inventories. The subindex for suppliers’ delivery times returned to negative territory, indicating that pressure on capital turnover, though less than in the months before December, still existed. Both gauges for input costs and output charges dropped only slightly. While companies have reduced their inventories, prices of domestic industrial products have since the start of the month recovered some of the losses seen in December. We expect that year-on-year growth in the producer price index is likely to slide closer to zero. On the whole, countercyclical economic policy hasn’t had a significant effect. While domestic manufacturing demand shrank, external demand turned positive and became a bright spot amid positive progress in Sino-US trade talks. As companies were more willing to reduce their inventories, their output declined, indicating notable downward pressure on China’s economy. China is likely to launch more fiscal and monetary measures and speed up their implementation. Yet the stance of stabilizing leverage and strict regulation hasn’t changed, which means the weakening trend of China’s economy will continue.”

Source : Strategic Research Institute

voda 4 februari 2019 20:49

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China's steel demand recoils in January - CSLPC PMI

China's steel sector China Steel Logistics Professionals Committee purchasing managers index increased by 5.9 points from a month earlier to 51.5 in January, rising above the reading of 50 that indicates an expansion, on the back of higher domestic and export orders. The steel production sub-index rose by 2.2 points at 46.8, indicating output contracted at a slower pace this month than in December. The new domestic orders sub-index rose by 13.9 points to 53.4 in January, while the sub-index for export orders rose by 8.3 points to 44.1. This year's winter has been warmer than usual in China, leading to fewer construction halts. CSLPC said "Enterprises hold optimistic market outlooks and increased the demand for raw materials, so that they can be put into production quickly after the lunar New Year holiday."

Crude steel output has fallen in December and January because of winter output restrictions imposed in 28 cities in north, east and central China to curb emissions. These restrictions will remain in place until February.

Market expectations are also turning more bullish as signs emerge of a thaw in the US-China trade spat, said CSLPC.

Source : Strategic Research Institute

voda 4 februari 2019 20:59

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China’s manufacturing shrinks in January – NBS official PMI

Activity in China's vast manufacturing sector shrank for the second straight month in January, pointing to further strains on the economy that could heighten risks to global growth. According to data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the official Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) edged up to 49.5 in January from 49.4 in December. The factory PMI showed weakness came from falling new orders. Manufacturers also continued to cut jobs. New orders, an indicator of future activity, pointed to further pressure ahead. The sub-index fell to 49.6 from 49.7 in December, the second consecutive month in contraction territory and reflecting persistently weak demand at home and abroad.

Even with government efforts to spur activity, concerns are growing that China may be at risk of a sharper-than-expected slowdown if the trade war with the United States drags on.

Source : Strategic Research Institute

voda 4 februari 2019 21:24

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Dozens of coal, iron ore freighters stuck off China ports amid customs delays – Reuters

Reuters reported that dozens of ships carrying coal and iron ore to China are stuck outside ports waiting to unload, according to shipping data, with traders saying harbour authorities are taking longer than usual to clear the imports with customs officials. Refinitiv data showed that more than 300 dry-bulk freighters in total are currently sitting idle, waiting to deliver into China. While dry-bulk ships carry many different commodities, most affected were those carrying coal and iron ore from Australia, according to the data and two bulk traders.

While some congestion is normal, especially as China heads into a market shutdown for its week-long Lunar New Year holiday, a ship broker and bulk trader said the backlog had swollen significantly over the past week as dozens of new ships arrived while far fewer cleared customs.

Two traders, who mostly deal with Australian coking or thermal coal, said several of their ships had been delayed clearing customs.

One of the traders said that “We don’t know why…but there has definitely been a significant slowdown in clearing customs, especially for Australian coal.”

The ship broker, bulk and coal traders all declined to be identified citing company policy. They said they had not been notified of any restrictions on coal imports, nor any reason for the slowdown in customs processing.

Officials at China’s customs administration did not immediately respond to Reuters’ requests for comment via phone or fax.

The ports most affected by the slowdown are Dalian, Huanghua, Jingtang, Lanshan, the Ningbo and Zhoushan zone, Qingdao, Qinhuangdao, Shantou, and Yingkou, according to the Refinitiv data.

Two port officials, one at Shantou and the other at Dalian, who both declined to be named, said they had received no notices on coal import restrictions.

Source : Reuters

voda 4 februari 2019 21:24

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Will China’s Apparent Slowdown Hurt Shipping? - Allied Shipbroking

Mr Nikos Roussanoglou of Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide wrote, for almost two decades now, China’s emergence as an economic powerhouse, with vast needs for raw materials imports to feed this growth, has immensely benefitted the shipping industry. However, while the country is still the most important market for global transit shipping, the apparent economical slowdown, trigerred by the trade war of the past year, is starting to put strain to the maritime industry as well. In its latest weekly report, shipbroker Allied Shipbroking said that “China has been the top driver of global growth for nearly two decades now, pushing demand for seaborne trade and being the key influencer for demand of several major trading commodities. The annual data of this Asian giant were revealed just a few days ago, sparking concerns for the economic state of the country. China’s GDP expanded in the previous year by 6.6%, a rate that may sound impressive compared to other OECD countries, but it is the lowest pace the country has seen since 1990. In addition, the latest quarterly growth figure stands at 6.4%, the weakest rate since the global financial crisis. With China accounting for one-third of global growth, it is no surprise that the International Monetary Fund revised its global economic growth forecast for 2019 by -0.2% and pointed out that risks for further downward corrections are high”.

According to Mr. Yiannis Vamvakas Research Analyst, “it is fair to point out that this slowdown has been expected by most including Beijing itself. The declining trend in China’s economic growth has been in the works since 2010, with the local government making steps to slowly transform from primarily a manufacturing based economy to a service based one. Of course, the impacts on global trade from this will be slow and gradual. An economic poll conducted by Reuters showed that the majority of economists expect China to slowdown further in 2019 down to 6.3%, while the IMF predicts a 6.2% growth rate. Apart from this disappointing growth data, production and trade data for 2018 have also been worrying. The Caixin/Markit manufacturing purchasing managers’ index (PMI) declined in December 2018 to 49.7, slipping back into contraction for a first time in 19 months. Industrial profits also fell in December, dropping by 1.9%”.

Vamvacas added that “moreover, China’s exports declined in December by 4.4%, the most in almost two years, while imports were also decreased by 7.6%. Regarding iron ore, a key commodity for dry bulk shipping, Chinese imports declined by 1%, falling to 1.064 billion tons from 1.075 billion tons in 2017, in their first annual decline since 2010. At the same time, steel exports continued to a soften in 2018, hurt by the current trade war with the US. On the other hand, coal imports by the Asian behemoth increased to their highest number in the last four years, reaching 281.5 million tons. However, imports were curbed during the last couple of months following a government strategy to support domestic coal prices”.

According to Allied’s analyst, “on the soya bean front, the impact of the US trade tariffs was significant, shifting imports’ sources from the US to different producing nations. However, it is worth mentioning that total Chinese exports in 2018 remained on a positive course, with China’s trade surplus with the US growing despite the trade tariffs, according to Chinese government data. However, the tariffs that have been imposed by the US government remain an important headache. With negotiations between the two countries having started, a lot of focus has been placed on the March deadline, when most hope a final decision will be reached. The aftermath of the negotiations may lead to further reshaping in global trade. With 2018 being an alarming year for the Chinese economy, affecting the shipping markets as well, it is significant to see if this disappointing year was just a parenthesis. The risks placed by a further slowdown in the Chinese economy on global trade as well as shipping markets is still high, but we should keep in mind that China’s growth maybe contracting but still remains robust. However, questions regarding the capability of the global economy to decrease its dependence to China are intensifying”, Vamvakas concluded.

Source : Nikos Roussanoglou, Hellenic Shipping News Worldwide

voda 4 februari 2019 21:25

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Chinese dry bulk imports showed signs of distress in 2018 - BIMCO’s

Total imports of iron ore and soya beans were lower in 2018 than in 2017, down 1% and 7.9% respectively, and although imports of coal grew by 3.7% in 2018, this was slower than the growth in 2017. Chinese bulk imports have become increasingly important as the world’s second largest economy has grown at a high rate. However, with more and more indicators pointing to a different Chinese growth going forward and increasing trade tensions with the world’s largest economy, things may be changing. China is not isolated in facing difficulties, global manufacturing PMI fell to 51.5 in December, and the IMF predicts global growth will fall from 3.7% in 2018 to 3.5% in 2019. Mr Peter Sand, BIMCO’s Chief Shipping Analyst, said that “Slower growth and outright declines in Chinese bulk imports will harm the shipping industry and the many shipowners who for years have relied on China’s growing imports to ensure employment for their ships.”

Total annual iron ore imports to China fell in 2018 compared to 2017, totalling 1.06 billion tonnes. Despite it being a small decline, just 1% lower than imports in 2017, this likely marks a turning point in Chinese iron ore imports. 2018 was the first time since 2010, that annual imports were lower than the previous year, and given new policies and more efficient steel mills, 2017 may have been the peak year for Chinese iron ore imports. Even though imports fell in 2018, it was still the third year in which China has imported over a billion tonnes of iron ore (2017: 1.08 billion tonnes, 2016: 1.02 billion tonnes). Lower iron ore imports have not however translated into lower steel production. Instead more efficient mills and in particular electric arc furnaces, which use scrap to produce steel have been able to increase production while reducing demand for iron ore. The authorities have also set targets to increase the use of scrap in steel production to reduce pollution.

“Iron Ore imports may start to drop at an even faster pace than we saw in 2018. Therefore, what is usually a mega-driver for dry bulk shipping demand may start to fade and dry bulk ships will have to look for new cargoes.” Peter Sand says.

Government policies heavily influence coal imports
Chinese coal imports grew 3.7% in 2018 to reach 281.2 million tonnes, but this growth disguises a year of two halves. The month with the highest imports in 2018 was July (29.01 million tonnes), at which point accumulated growth was at 14.7%. After July imports fell on a monthly basis culminating with only 10.2 million tonnes in December. For comparison, December 2017 saw China import 22.7 million tonnes of coal.

Anecdotal evidence suggests that the Chinse customs authorities stopped clearing coal shipments in December. High domestic supplies, a lower growth in electricity demand combined with high stocks led the authorities to wanting to keep imports below the 2017 levels, during which China imported 271 million tonnes of coal.

Mr Peter Sand said that “Chinese coal imports rely heavily on government decisions and policies and therefore remain a swing factor in 2019.”

Trade war hurting the transpacific soya bean trade
Chinese soya bean imports fell to 88 million tonnes in 2018, down 7.9% from 2017. A 25% tariff on US soya beans arriving in China in place since July and increased hostilities between the two nations is behind much of this fall.

In past years China has relied heavily on US soya beans from September through to the end of the year, with Brazilian soya beans more important during the first half of the year. In 2017 China imported 32.9 million tonnes of soya beans from the US, this fell to just 16.6 million tonnes in 2018. This means a loss of 218 Panamax loads (75,000 tonnes) of soya bean loads from the US to China in 2018.

Brazil managed to meet some of the additional Chinese demand for non-US soya beans during the fourth quarter despite its normal export season running from March through to July. In Q4 2018 Brazilian soya bean exports to China were 131.2% higher than those in Q4 2017. In the full year 2018 an extra 15.3 million tonnes of soya beans were exported by Brazil to China, the equivalent of an additional 204 Panamax loads compared to 2017.

He said that “Lower soya meal content in pig feed to reduce demand for soya beans, tapping into stocks and increased imports from elsewhere have allowed China to shy away from US soya beans for the whole of 2018. Ongoing trade talks and an apparent Chinese promise to increase imports from the US have led to Chinese buyers slowly increasing their imports of US soya beans in the last few weeks of 2018 and into 2019. But the result of this round of trade talks will likely set the tone for this trade in 2019.”

Source : Strategic Research Institute

voda 4 februari 2019 21:26

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Sri Lanka to borrow USD 1 billion from China for highway project

NDTV reported htat Sri Lanka, which last year handed over a strategic port to a Chinese firm for a 99-year lease as a debt swap, will soon sign a USD 1 billion concessional loan agreement with Beijing to fund a major highway project linking Colombo to the hill resort of Kandy. The construction of the first phase of the road linking Colombo with Kandy had been delayed for more than two years due to a lack of funding.

Sri Lankan Ambassador to China Karunasena Kodituwakku, was quoted by the official media on Friday as saying that the USD one billion will be used for the first stage of the central highway. The second stage will be financed by Sri Lankan consortiums and the third by Japanese loans.

Earlier, the chief of Sri Lanka's central bank said the country will receive a sovereign loan of USD one billion from the Bank of China in the first quarter of this year, and it will be used to meet repayments in the coming months.

Mr Kodituwakku did not confirm if it was the same loan and whether it is linked with the USD one billion loan from the Export-Import Bank of China, the state-run Global Times reported.

The envoy thanked China which he said had provided assistance to Sri Lanka in both long-term project loans and day-to-day needs. Mr Kodituwakku also revealed that the country was negotiating with the China Development Bank for short-term loans.

Playing down the allegations that China's financial assistance to Sri Lanka has led it into a debt trap, he said, "We don't agree with that. China never forced us to take a loan. If there is something wrong with the loans we have taken, it's our responsibility. It's not fair to blame China or another country, saying Sri Lanka is a victim".

According to reports, Sri Lanka owed USD eight billion debt to China. The envoy said though Colombo has borrowed from many countries, including India and Japan, as well as multilateral organisations, it is not heavily indebted.

He said that "This year Sri Lanka has to settle nearly USD 4 billion, and the country has more than USD 8 billion in reserves. But we cannot use all that money just to pay back. We have to keep a minimum balance."

Source : NDTV

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