De hoop van Rusland op een Republikeinse aardverschuiving om Oekraïne te schaden, vervliegt snel
While the U.S. midterm election results roll in, and point to a far tighter-than-expected race between Republicans and Democrats for control of Congress, half way across the world the vote count is being closely watched by Ukraine and Russia.
A close confidante of President Vladimir Putin openly admitted to interfering in the U.S. election this week, and said his network would continue to do so.
There have been fears a Republican landslide in the midterms could lead to a cut in funding for Ukraine.
While the U.S. midterm election results roll in, and point to a far tighter-than-expected race between Republicans and Democrats as they vie for control of Congress, the vote is being closely watched in Ukraine and Russia with both gauging how the election could impact the war and geopolitics.
Although it has not commented publicly, Moscow is seen to favor a win for the Republicans in the midterms in the hope that a big power shift could bring about a change in the U.S.' foreign policy toward Ukraine — and could deepen rumblings of discontent among Republicans over the massive financial support the U.S. is giving Kyiv to fight Russia.
Nine months into the ongoing conflict and the Biden administration has now committed more than $18.9 billion in security assistance to Ukraine, according to the Department of Defense’s latest figures.
There are some signs that bipartisan support for such immense and ongoing aid could be waning, however, with prominent Republicans starting to question how long the U.S.' largesse can continue, particularly against a backdrop of inflation, potential recession and rising living costs.
For one, prominent Republican Kevin McCarthy said in an interview in October there would be no “blank check” for Ukraine if the Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the midterms.
Shift in power ... and Ukraine support?
Russia could well hope that a shift in power after the the midterm elections could herald a cooler attitude toward Ukraine. But analysts say Moscow could be disappointed unless former leader Donald Trump is able to return to power, having signaled he could announce next week a plan to run for the presidency again in 2024.
“There’s no significant downside pressure on U.S. military support for Ukraine through the end of 2023,” Ian Bremmer, founder and head of the Eurasia Group consultancy, said in emailed comments this week.
“Further, most Republicans remain staunchly committed to Ukraine support, despite House minority leader Kevin McCarthy’s announcement of ‘no blank check’ for the Ukrainians under a Republican-led House. The GOP congressional position, at least near-term, will be ‘the U.S. gives military aid, the Europeans give financial aid,’ which changes little on the ground,” he added.
The bigger question comes from Trump announcing his presidential run, Bremmer said, adding that he expected such an announcement imminently.
That, he added, was likely to be accompanied by blaming Biden for the war with a populist opposition to billions of taxpayer dollars being spent on Ukraine, a position that “will gain momentum with MAGA supporters in Congress and undermine longer-term U.S. alignment with NATO allies,” he noted.
The U.S. has sought to calm any nerves in Kyiv about a shift in Washington’s attitude toward the country with Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the U.S. ambassador to the United Nations, making clear “that the United States’ commitment to Ukraine is unwavering” when she met Ukraine’s president on Tuesday.
Moscow’s bad reputation
Moscow has earned itself a dubious reputation when it comes to U.S. democratic processes, found to have interfered in the 2016 election and suspected of continuing to sow political discord and in the country.
Russia has done little to dispel doubts over its involvement in a string of nefarious activities in recent years, from alleged cyberattacks to disinformation campaigns aimed at swaying U.S. voters and elections.
Putin’s close confidante Yevgeny Prigozhin, an increasingly powerful oligarch who leads a state-backed private military group fighting in Ukraine, known as the Wagner Group — as well as several companies implicated in 2016 U.S. election interference — openly alluded to interfering in the U.S. midterms this week.
“We have interfered [in U.S. elections], we are interfering and we will continue to interfere. Carefully, accurately, surgically and in our own way, as we know how to do,” Prigozhin said in comments posted by the press service of his Concord catering firm on Russia’s Facebook equivalent VKontakte.
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