Interview met Florian Schonharting at Børsen Play , deelnemer aan de IPO van Genmab in 1998 .
Here is a quick recap of an interview with Børsen play published moments ago... Tried to make it a word-for-word account of what he said.. some of it is incredible but nothing new to us.
You may trust that the account below is accurate in terms of what he has actually said.. seems to share your mindset very much.. Granted, this is not news at all.. Florian has been a super bull for quite a while..
The header is: Genmab will be bought soon
Journalist: you said 2000 in 2017 (me: he actually said 2000 in 2016 already), what has happened the stock needs to move up like a rocket to reach that level this year, what went wrong since your target of 2000 in 2017?
Florian: A lot has happened but only good stuff. We had fantastic data in June, the expectations are still modest, they haven't changed since the month of March. I believe that there is a lot of positive developments on its way.
Journalist: okay we will return to what the pipeline contains later, but it sounds like the investors simply can't understand the potential of Genmab..
Florian: Yes exactly, I already said when we were trading in 500 DKK, there people also couldn't understand.. In biotech everything goes wrong, but here we have the opposite situation, everything materializes and it just keeps getting better and better.. so the analysts have fallen behind reality..
Journalist: lets look at the analysts, 10 buy, 8 hold, 2 sell... with an average target of 1483 meanwhile the stock is now trading at 1396.. So overall pretty bullish sentiment, but with great difference between the top and the bottom.. Bryan Garnier has a buy recommendation with 2000 and HSBC says sell with a target of 784 DKK.. why is it so difficult for the analysts to see where the stock has to go..
Florian: There is an unofficial rule that says you shouldn't be more than 5% away from the current price at any given time.. that is how the analysts are behaving. I believe that we need to look at facts, we need to listen to the practitioners, what are they saying, how will they use it, what does data tell us.. and it will be one of the worlds biggest products.. JNJ knows this very well.. We have a potential that is much higher..
Journalist: and by potential you are referring to Darzalex
Florian: YES DARZALEX !
Journalist: that will be one of the worlds biggest products, okay then lets go a bit into details with this.. Because there was good data for Darzalex this summer.. and I know you are expecting with 100% certainty that this will be approved in first line treatment, why are you so sure?
Florian: 100% certainty doesn't exist, but I will give you 99%.. The data we saw (this summer) were overwhelming, even unprecedented.. they have the possibility to maybe even replace the very painful standard of transplantation.. The data convinced the clinicians, every clinician is onboard while Wall Street continues to hesitate.. I put my money on the clinicians...
Journalist: Okay so you are with the clinicians, then there was your target of 2000 DKK in 2017, do you still believe that Genmab should cost 2000 DKK as you say that Darzalex will be the worlds "best product"?
Florian: Well, I don't engage in short-term forecast.. it is hard.. something could happen in North Korea.. but I can say that Genmab trades well below fundamental value.. The stock trades very much behind realities, I believe that we are so used to seeing biotech being so difficult and not working as explosively as we see here with a best case unfolding.. and then we even have a management that isn't destructive but remains very shareholder focused.. IT SIMPLY JUST SINKS IN VERY SLOWLY FOR THE MARKET..
Journalist: When will we reach 2000 DKK and do we even need to go higher?
Florian: I don't know when we will reach it, the only I can tell you is that major corporations are looking at this smiling scratching their heads like I'm doing... looking at the current price and appreciating the low valuation.. and they have completely different valuation metrics that they can realize.. we are maybe talking about 3000-4000 DKK per share.. because there will come a day when they will take us out.. and we just need to hope that we will be at a higher level by then..
Journalist: So do you agree with those that say 3000-4000 DKK in the long term for Genmab..
Florian: Yes, if Genmab exists that long.. I don't believe that they will survive that long because the interest of taking over companies like this is too big.. There is enormous capital that understands the history, they are understanding this, they are in direct contact with the clinicians and they understand it.. they will take it (edit: the company) of the table.. unfortunately
Journalist: And how is it that should buy Genmab
Florian: most obvious is JnJ, there are others, but JnJ the worlds biggest company, it would be 30% of their revenue, enormous profit margin... they can calculate and they can borrow money at 3%, they are not in doubt..
Journalist: But every time one asks J vd Winkel, he rejects any takeover of Genmab
Florian: he is doing his best, he is holding onto his cash, he is not spreading his resources, he has made an almost heartless range of new criteria for new projects that are extremely shareholder friendly, he is doing his best, but he is no magician !!
Journalist: When do you expect that Genmab will be sold
Florian: To be honest, it can happen tomorrow it can happen in 12 months, but I guarantee you that Genmab doesn't exist in 5 years..
Journalist: So in 5 years, Genmab won't exist, but if we look at the pipeline, then it is all about Darzalex that you call the worlds best product, ready for first line etc, but what else is it that Genmab does well?
Florian: Yes, Darzalex is the main attraction and alone this one could write novels about.. they have other assets but there is hardly airtime for this.. bla bla.. however, Genmab is being carried alone by Darzalex and this is interesting..